| 82. Another valuable, very responsive post. Thank you! Have you uncov- |
|
ered outlier tallies and/or a geographic concentration of minor-candidate votes, or use of "wrong" templates even at single-precinct polling places? Your frequencies for Badnarik and Peroutka at 136 single-precinct polling places seem rather high. I was in the process of trying to remove outlier clusters from the Badnarik and Peroutka tallies, and then recalculating mean and standard deviation for Badnarik, Peroutka, and both minor candidates together. I expected to get at least down into the "teens", Your post prompts me to examine the single-precinct locations for outliers, too. And thanks for anwering my question about spoiled ballots within Cuyahoga. Subsequently, I looked on the SOS website and found the following, which deviates slightly from your answer. Is my arithmetic faulty, or are you using prior-to-final tallies? We're not that far apart. The total number of votes cast for president in Cuyahoga was 673,766, according to http://serform2.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/2004/gen/pr... But the number of votes cast overall in Cuyahoga was 687,260, according to http://serform2.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/2004/gen/vo... This leaves a difference of 13,494.
|
| -Chaos in Cuyahoga? 49,000 Votes Disappear into the Ether ...then found? |
Iceburg |
Dec-16-04 07:17 AM |
#0 |
-
Was Cuyahoga County the only place |
DoYouEverWonder |
Dec-16-04 07:27 AM |
#1 |
 -
Multiple precincts in vote locations are common in most counties |
Iceburg |
Dec-16-04 07:33 AM |
#2 |
-
I would assume that they only do this |
DoYouEverWonder |
Dec-16-04 07:40 AM |
#3 |
-
No, suburbs too. |
skids |
Dec-16-04 07:46 AM |
#4 |
-
A couple of differences that might be worth considering |
DoYouEverWonder |
Dec-16-04 08:26 AM |
#5 |
-
'Burbs have more pcts per polling place on average |
jmknapp |
Dec-16-04 08:44 AM |
#6 |
-
jm -- your maps give rise to an idea on how to eliminate |
Iceburg |
Dec-16-04 10:51 AM |
#7 |
-
Joe--Do you have precinct tallies for "Disqualified candidate" for President? |
AirAmFan |
Dec-16-04 05:28 PM |
#36 |
-
When are precinct exit poll numbers going to become available?? |
berniew1 |
Dec-17-04 07:24 AM |
#50 |
-
Cross-precinct voting switched votes to wrong candidate |
L. Coyote |
Dec-16-04 11:15 AM |
#8 |
-
amazing and brings many questions to mind |
idealista |
Dec-16-04 11:24 AM |
#9 |
 -
Do we have detailed information on the ballot order in each precinct? |
MarkusQ |
Dec-16-04 11:50 AM |
#13 |
  -
GREAT question. Here's the beginning of an answer, using ballot order |
AirAmFan |
Dec-16-04 12:55 PM |
#19 |
   -
Ah ha!!!! (?) |
MarkusQ |
Dec-16-04 01:25 PM |
#21 |
   -
You have crafted an excellent description of the transfer |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 05:38 AM |
#46 |
  -
Thank you. What do you make of my 'back of the envelope' calculation |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 07:22 AM |
#49 |
  -
I haven't got to it yet -- but I most ceratinly intend to. |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 07:31 AM |
#51 |
  -
Yes we have the ballot order for each precinct from Cuyahoga's |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 05:30 AM |
#45 |
 -
Just pick up a voting machine and move it to the next table (precinct) ... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-16-04 02:01 PM |
#23 |
 -
I say this with all respect and sincerity to you, but ... |
imaginary girl |
Dec-17-04 01:33 AM |
#43 |
  -
The short answer to your question .... |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:20 AM |
#52 |
 -
Ballot switching |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 12:15 PM |
#65 |
  -
There may or may not be a parallel shift ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 03:14 PM |
#73 |
 -
All the races rotate |
mulethree |
Dec-17-04 04:49 PM |
#79 |
 -
Question: Is there a specific area on the card designated |
Iceburg |
Dec-18-04 07:14 AM |
#94 |
 -
How to vote on a punchcard machine, in OH2004 and FL2000 elections |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 10:00 AM |
#98 |
 -
Greatly appreciated but I still am in search of an answer to this |
Iceburg |
Dec-18-04 10:54 AM |
#100 |
 -
Would still be detectable if used in meanigful quantities |
mulethree |
Dec-17-04 04:21 PM |
#77 |
 -
You hit nail on the head idealista with your question ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 05:24 AM |
#44 |
 -
The Non-Votes (undervoting) seem to be in strongest Kerry Precincts. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 08:04 PM |
#85 |
-
Thanks for this work, Iceburg |
donkeyotay |
Dec-16-04 11:34 AM |
#10 |
-
Kick for iceburg's great work |
Straight Shooter |
Dec-16-04 11:37 AM |
#11 |
-
Big KICK |
smartvoter |
Dec-16-04 11:45 AM |
#12 |
-
Intriguing analysis - very insightful. |
Critical Thinker |
Dec-16-04 11:50 AM |
#14 |
-
Good Job Iceburg, well done, great work...Thank you. n/t |
texpatriot2004 |
Dec-16-04 11:56 AM |
#15 |
-
You need to get this to Arnebeck. nt |
smartvoter |
Dec-16-04 12:07 PM |
#16 |
-
Hmm ... I wonder ... |
Dolphyn |
Dec-16-04 12:15 PM |
#17 |
 -
All: This ties to the Caterpillar Ballot thread: |
smartvoter |
Dec-16-04 12:45 PM |
#18 |
  -
Kick n/t |
Emit |
Dec-16-04 01:02 PM |
#20 |
 -
Very well done, Iceberg |
Quakerfriend |
Dec-16-04 01:28 PM |
#22 |
 -
I agree we needd to get our hands on a Republican county |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:25 AM |
#53 |
-
Joe come through... |
MarkusQ |
Dec-18-04 10:51 PM |
#124 |
-
Very nice job! |
RaulVB |
Dec-16-04 02:03 PM |
#24 |
-
Can you look at this in a Republican stronghold for comparison? (n/t) |
MarkusQ |
Dec-16-04 02:38 PM |
#25 |
 -
I would love nothing more that to have my hands on |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:30 AM |
#54 |
-
Where did you get the data you are using here? (n/t) |
MarkusQ |
Dec-17-04 10:34 PM |
#86 |
 -
The data comes from jmknapps post ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-18-04 05:18 AM |
#92 |
-
Butler County Information |
minvis |
Dec-20-04 05:02 PM |
#135 |
-
I'M SCARED for what I see this statistics! |
Dcitizen |
Dec-16-04 02:59 PM |
#26 |
 -
Why isn't the 3rd party vote affected more? |
mulethree |
Dec-16-04 04:41 PM |
#30 |
-
There was also an "empty" slot to suck up votes. (n/t) |
MarkusQ |
Dec-16-04 04:56 PM |
#31 |
 -
Also, some precincts are so heavily Kerry |
jmknapp |
Dec-17-04 08:34 AM |
#56 |
-
Pattern in % undervoting = correlation to Kerry precincts |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 04:21 PM |
#76 |
-
This post brings back memories of Florida 2000 |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 06:22 PM |
#83 |
-
Done |
mulethree |
Dec-16-04 05:17 PM |
#34 |
-
Votes can spread to other parties only .2% |
Dcitizen |
Dec-16-04 05:45 PM |
#37 |
-
Good questions ... See post #43 |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:36 AM |
#57 |
-
HOLY CRAP!! |
thedutch |
Dec-16-04 03:58 PM |
#27 |
 -
Gosh ...If I only had the data ...I would accept your command |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:39 AM |
#58 |
-
kick! n/t |
Critical Thinker |
Dec-16-04 03:59 PM |
#28 |
-
Another Conlcusion: mutiple ballot orders made votes easy to shift !! |
truehawk |
Dec-16-04 04:12 PM |
#29 |
 -
No |
mulethree |
Dec-16-04 05:02 PM |
#32 |
  -
3rd party votes |
bruised |
Dec-16-04 05:20 PM |
#35 |
   -
It could if they went in the "Disqualified" slot. (n/t) |
MarkusQ |
Dec-17-04 12:05 AM |
#40 |
  -
Remember those 93,000 "spoiled ballots with no vote for President? |
truehawk |
Dec-16-04 06:27 PM |
#38 |
   -
This is a CRUCIAL, insightful question, of statewide and national importance |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 06:57 AM |
#47 |
  -
How many disqualified were intentional? |
mulethree |
Dec-17-04 01:41 PM |
#66 |
   -
Another valuable, very responsive post. Thank you! Have you uncov- |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 05:57 PM |
#82 |
  -
.. |
mulethree |
Dec-17-04 11:22 PM |
#88 |
  -
Thanks for the minor candidate distributions. See post #49 in the other |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 12:57 AM |
#90 |
  -
The 'NOT-ALL-THE-WAY-DOWN' hypothesis for single-precinct polling |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 10:36 AM |
#99 |
  -
how much tolerance do those machines have? |
mulethree |
Dec-18-04 12:46 PM |
#106 |
  -
Sounds as though you DO understand the mechanism I'm suggesting |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 02:13 PM |
#111 |
  -
This topic 'not all the way down' now has its own thread |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 05:27 PM |
#118 |
  -
Non-Vote comparison - Cuyahoga County and Statewide |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 07:37 PM |
#84 |
  -
Non-Votes and Candidates % Statewide Sorted by Voting Machine |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 11:13 PM |
#87 |
  -
I disagree. "ballot rotation" is not a simple "swap". See post #19 above and |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 07:12 AM |
#48 |
 -
I think we do agree |
mulethree |
Dec-17-04 02:15 PM |
#69 |
 -
I beg to differ, there is a subset of ballot order pairs that |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 03:40 PM |
#74 |
  -
So you're assuming only Kerry ballots as opposed to random |
mulethree |
Dec-17-04 04:32 PM |
#78 |
 -
I think the intent was to only shift the Kerry ballots |
Iceburg |
Dec-18-04 06:43 AM |
#93 |
 -
EXCELLENT! Agreement is good. And thanks for the posting tip |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 05:13 PM |
#80 |
 -
Not another ... that is exactly my premise ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:40 AM |
#59 |
-
great work - the exit poll Cuyahoga percentages could prove the theory! |
bruised |
Dec-16-04 05:16 PM |
#33 |
 -
Kickin' it up |
Scout1071 |
Dec-16-04 08:35 PM |
#39 |
  -
Very interesting! Kick. |
senegal1 |
Dec-17-04 12:17 AM |
#41 |
 -
Thanks Bruised. I will be further refining the analysis over the weekend |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 08:43 AM |
#60 |
-
Is your spreadsheet available? Kicking too! |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 12:42 AM |
#42 |
 -
I can email it to you or you can pick up jmknapp's data |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 09:01 AM |
#61 |
-
I have the spreadsheet. Thanks |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 09:53 AM |
#63 |
-
CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS! |
lonestarnot |
Dec-17-04 08:32 AM |
#55 |
-
Followup: I thank all of you for the feedback and request some assistance |
Iceburg |
Dec-17-04 09:18 AM |
#62 |
-
Ohio statistical summary sorted by red / blue counties. Let's compare ... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 11:53 AM |
#64 |
 -
Adding to this Stats Summary: the Statewide Non-Vote percentages. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 11:54 PM |
#89 |
-
Vote shifts to "Disqualified" |
jmknapp |
Dec-17-04 01:48 PM |
#67 |
 -
I got a chuckle out of his reply |
Critical Thinker |
Dec-17-04 02:20 PM |
#70 |
  -
I know! Obviously a typo... |
jmknapp |
Dec-17-04 02:26 PM |
#71 |
  -
Maybe, maybe not |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 04:04 PM |
#75 |
 -
Analysis of non-votes (undervoting) should reveal suspect precincts. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-17-04 03:02 PM |
#72 |
  -
Non-Votes equals number of Voters minus candidate votes |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 02:27 AM |
#91 |
 -
Thanks for posting this. On my "caterpillar ballot" thread, data on Dis- |
AirAmFan |
Dec-17-04 05:42 PM |
#81 |
-
great thread |
jmknapp |
Dec-18-04 08:50 AM |
#95 |
-
Anyone reading this thread should also read .... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 09:31 AM |
#96 |
-
Kick for more awareness nt |
goclark |
Dec-18-04 09:50 AM |
#97 |
-
Thanks. I'd really appreciate your feedback. Do you know anything |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 11:56 AM |
#103 |
-
kick n/t |
StephanieMarie |
Dec-17-04 01:51 PM |
#68 |
-
Correlate with precinct size |
dlaliberte |
Dec-18-04 10:57 AM |
#101 |
 -
Interesting report ... in particular, the statement about the poll books |
Iceburg |
Dec-18-04 11:30 AM |
#102 |
  -
link to... |
EMunster |
Dec-18-04 12:03 PM |
#104 |
  -
Size vs anomalies |
dlaliberte |
Dec-18-04 01:03 PM |
#107 |
 -
General statistics for Cuyahoga .. part of the answer is |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 01:57 PM |
#109 |
 -
U write "if we compare the signature books with the tallies, we will find |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 02:07 PM |
#110 |
-
Comparison of two 'Caterpillar Crawl" Precincts .. and the loser is .. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 12:38 PM |
#105 |
 -
In 80% of precincts, ballot crawl shifts Kerry vote to "d" .. AirAmFan ?? |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 02:25 PM |
#113 |
  -
I'm just assuming the BOE's precinct ballot shuffle was unbiased overall |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 02:58 PM |
#114 |
   -
"You have a database with ballot order in it..." |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 04:11 PM |
#117 |
  -
To minimize confusion, I've created a new thread for 'not all the way down' |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 05:37 PM |
#119 |
  -
Clarification: I'm assuming there could have been 2 separate sources of |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 03:11 PM |
#116 |
 -
Which direction are you looking? |
mgr |
Dec-20-04 01:03 PM |
#130 |
-
Iceburg, I can answer some of these questions: |
Chili |
Dec-18-04 01:16 PM |
#108 |
 -
Chili: Thans for this. Do you know anything about the HISTORY |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 02:23 PM |
#112 |
  -
I wish I knew the answer to that... |
Chili |
Dec-18-04 03:08 PM |
#115 |
 -
Thanks for looking for more info. This 'ballot order' confusion |
AirAmFan |
Dec-18-04 05:40 PM |
#120 |
 -
Chili ... I greatly appreciate your post |
Iceburg |
Dec-18-04 07:33 PM |
#121 |
-
Iceburg, I lost track of this thread - sorry! |
Chili |
Dec-20-04 12:15 PM |
#129 |
-
Interesting ... a) if there is only a precinct ink stamp on the back and |
Iceburg |
Dec-20-04 06:47 PM |
#137 |
 -
okay, now that it's over, I'll admit it... |
Chili |
Dec-21-04 02:21 PM |
#149 |
-
This is a really IMPORTANT detail: WHERE was the voter supposed to put |
AirAmFan |
Dec-20-04 10:18 PM |
#138 |
-
yes, we got an envelope... |
Chili |
Dec-21-04 03:09 PM |
#151 |
-
Reminds me of a funny Al Camus piece against corruption |
Dancing_Dave |
Dec-18-04 08:13 PM |
#122 |
 -
kick n/t |
L. Coyote |
Dec-19-04 01:05 AM |
#126 |
-
Number of ballot orders at each location could be manipulated to skew... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-18-04 09:02 PM |
#123 |
-
Kick for the Sunday a.m. insomniacs |
Straight Shooter |
Dec-19-04 12:56 AM |
#125 |
 -
I'll never get any sleep ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-19-04 11:21 AM |
#127 |
-
kick n/t |
L. Coyote |
Dec-19-04 07:22 PM |
#128 |
-
Graph 2, number of polling places? |
mgr |
Dec-20-04 01:14 PM |
#131 |
 -
Maps |
jmknapp |
Dec-20-04 02:06 PM |
#134 |
-
Some Cuyahoga ballot order statistics |
L. Coyote |
Dec-20-04 11:11 PM |
#139 |
 -
LC, I have all the ballot orders plus a new findings .... |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 01:13 AM |
#164 |
-
More indications of where to analyze. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 10:47 PM |
#190 |
-
Distribution of Ballot Orders in Cuyahoga-Sorted by Ballot Number |
L. Coyote |
Dec-20-04 11:39 PM |
#140 |
 -
The last column is the one that really counts, and that looks random |
AirAmFan |
Dec-21-04 12:31 AM |
#142 |
  -
The ballot orders are treated equally |
jmknapp |
Dec-21-04 07:37 AM |
#143 |
   -
Before I answer this post, let's return to a related issue: Did you see my |
AirAmFan |
Dec-21-04 11:53 AM |
#144 |
  -
Yes, but the idea of a manual process for 1436 precincts |
jmknapp |
Dec-21-04 12:23 PM |
#146 |
  -
Thanks! Very helpful. Do you have the latitude and longitude of each precinct up |
AirAmFan |
Dec-21-04 01:26 PM |
#147 |
  -
Yes, lat/lon data are in the file linked above n/t |
jmknapp |
Dec-21-04 02:01 PM |
#148 |
  -
Joe--How would you suggest finding the census block group closest |
AirAmFan |
Dec-21-04 07:38 PM |
#157 |
  -
Ballot Order, Machine Distribution, and How to Fix an Election for Dummies |
L. Coyote |
Dec-21-04 07:05 PM |
#156 |
 -
The ballot sequence is b . B . K . d . p |
L. Coyote |
Dec-21-04 11:34 PM |
#160 |
 -
I have analyzed a subse of 2-2-176 data set ... interesting relationship |
Iceburg |
Dec-21-04 11:46 PM |
#161 |
 -
In the two ballot subset there are four combinations |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 01:53 AM |
#165 |
  -
LC ...I'm not following - perhaps I need a little shut eye but ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 02:43 AM |
#166 |
 -
Here is a subset of the 2 ballot type locations |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 07:55 PM |
#176 |
 -
Example & Selection --Right on LC!!!! |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 08:34 PM |
#177 |
 -
The Excel should be uploaded now. I uploaded the wrong file. n/t |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 09:42 PM |
#180 |
 -
Sorry, LC. Joe's right in #143, and I was confused in #142 |
AirAmFan |
Dec-21-04 06:56 PM |
#155 |
-
Number of Votes for Candidates Sorted by # Ballot Types at Locations |
L. Coyote |
Dec-21-04 12:00 AM |
#141 |
-
Interesting pattern |
mgr |
Dec-21-04 03:40 PM |
#153 |
-
Question - Why does the Precinct totals differ between the |
mikelewis |
Dec-20-04 01:28 PM |
#132 |
 -
Cuyahoga reported its absentee results in 22-line blocks |
AirAmFan |
Dec-20-04 01:52 PM |
#133 |
-
Question - Why does the total number of people registered change |
mikelewis |
Dec-20-04 05:51 PM |
#136 |
-
Butler County Info |
minvis |
Dec-21-04 12:02 PM |
#145 |
 -
What about TRENTON 5EA? |
jmknapp |
Dec-21-04 03:06 PM |
#150 |
  -
Trenton 5EA |
minvis |
Dec-21-04 03:32 PM |
#152 |
 -
That's excellent news Minvis. Plus New FINDINGS!!!!! |
Iceburg |
Dec-21-04 08:49 PM |
#158 |
-
More Butler County Info |
minvis |
Dec-28-04 11:34 PM |
#192 |
-
I would like to see these numbers as percentages of the vote. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-29-04 12:10 AM |
#193 |
-
It really is a fascinating phenomenon at least |
jmknapp |
Dec-29-04 08:41 AM |
#194 |
-
Doesn't this lead us to likely suspects? |
IndyPriest |
Dec-21-04 05:29 PM |
#154 |
 -
Am I missing something obvious? |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 12:03 AM |
#162 |
-
And to make sure those ballot shifts go as planned |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 01:11 AM |
#163 |
-
RE: Cross-Precinct Voting. Is the game fixed by voting machine types? |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 11:58 AM |
#169 |
-
Very interesting analysis LC |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 01:40 PM |
#170 |
-
Many strategies to shave points adds up. |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 07:15 PM |
#175 |
-
Code or Poll Workers |
minvis |
Dec-21-04 11:12 PM |
#159 |
-
Iceburg... |
Chili |
Dec-22-04 09:09 AM |
#167 |
 -
Goof Info Chili -- "they leave out the precinct so it can be filled in lat |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 10:40 AM |
#168 |
 -
"Good Info Chili - "they leave out the precinct so it can be filled in |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 01:44 PM |
#171 |
-
Simulation |
jmknapp |
Dec-22-04 03:33 PM |
#172 |
 -
JM can you run the simulation with this criteria ... |
Iceburg |
Dec-22-04 05:04 PM |
#173 |
  -
Hi Iceberg |
jmknapp |
Dec-22-04 05:45 PM |
#174 |
 -
In Two Ballot Precincts, there are only Two Patterns of Switching |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 09:05 PM |
#179 |
 -
Non-Random Ballot Order Combinations Produce Even More Shift ... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-22-04 08:36 PM |
#178 |
  -
Assumptions |
jmknapp |
Dec-22-04 09:45 PM |
#181 |
 -
How many votes would Badnarik have gotten in Cuyahoga? |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 12:03 AM |
#182 |
  -
A rough guess... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 01:44 AM |
#183 |
   -
Ballpark |
jmknapp |
Dec-23-04 05:21 PM |
#186 |
  -
Correction: Applause for the reader who notices these fine points!! |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 12:41 PM |
#185 |
 -
Not all things being random impacts simulation models/complexities ... |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 09:52 PM |
#188 |
-
Blackwell has some words about the reasons for non-votes |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 09:33 AM |
#184 |
 -
Since the non-votes were more prevalent in black precincts |
jmknapp |
Dec-23-04 05:25 PM |
#187 |
-
Statistical Summaries for the "Number of Ballot Orders" Subsets |
L. Coyote |
Dec-23-04 10:28 PM |
#189 |
-
Uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County by Richard Hayes Phillips |
L. Coyote |
Dec-26-04 12:51 AM |
#191 |