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Reply #43: Mitofsky still has some explaining to do. [View All]

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jkd Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-04-04 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #38
43. Mitofsky still has some explaining to do.
Edited on Sat Dec-04-04 04:16 PM by jkd
I would like those early exit polls to be correct, but for my state, Utah, I don't believe they are.
Brigham Young University has been doing statewide exit polls for over twenty years. They have a very good reputation for accuracy. They show Kerry with 26.5% of the vote; Mitofsky's numbers are 4% higher. Exit polls are traditionally accurate; something is wrong.
If all states had independent exit polls, it might shed some light. Mitofsky must make his data and methodology public.
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  -THE PROBABILITY IS ZERO: THANK YOU, BILL GATES, FOR GIVING US EXCEL. TruthIsAll  Dec-04-04 01:07 PM   #0 
  - As a fellow mathametician,  StephanieMarie   Dec-04-04 01:09 PM   #1 
  - HERE IS A GRAPH OF THE DATA  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 03:24 PM   #31 
  - Actually  Scout1071   Dec-04-04 10:57 PM   #67 
  - OREGON HAD 100% PAPER BALLOTS; EXIT POLL WITHIN 0.80% OF THE VOTE  TruthIsAll   Dec-05-04 04:14 PM   #89 
  - Thanks. It's appreciated.  TruthIsAll   Dec-05-04 11:54 AM   #87 
  - Then I won't stop...  TruthIsAll   Dec-07-04 09:34 AM   #90 
  - And for bonus points,  kgfnally   Dec-04-04 01:11 PM   #2 
  - Simply Stated - It Is Mathematically Impossible For Bush To Have Won  mhr   Dec-04-04 01:15 PM   #4 
  - Heh- yeah. I'd say that's enough.  kgfnally   Dec-04-04 01:16 PM   #6 
  - Yay! Can we prove that in court? Suspicions confirmed, now  Chicago Democrat   Dec-04-04 01:16 PM   #7 
  - DNA and finger print evidence both depend on probabilities.  BrightKnight   Dec-04-04 09:31 PM   #65 
  - careful, now. it's statistically impossible for shrub to have won  unblock   Dec-04-04 01:27 PM   # 
  - Understand The Subtlety - The Probability That Systemic Problems  mhr   Dec-04-04 01:35 PM   #16 
  - It's one thing to say it. It's another to show it in black and white.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 02:17 PM   #25 
  - That is not correct  mdhunter   Dec-04-04 03:38 PM   #35 
     - In Practical Terms That The Layman Can Understand  mhr   Dec-04-04 04:18 PM   #46 
     - I still don't know that to be true from these data  mdhunter   Dec-04-04 04:32 PM   #51 
     - No, I must disagree with your final, bold statement.  TruthIsAll   Dec-05-04 03:05 AM   #72 
  - Disregard the Excel and math functions stuff.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 04:17 PM   #45 
     - It's impossible, but it happened  dargondogon   Dec-04-04 04:22 PM   #47 
        - We can't prove fraud, but independent investigators can. n/t  TruthIsAll   Dec-05-04 03:10 AM   #73 
  - May I post this on my site?  Atman   Dec-04-04 01:13 PM   #3 
  - Yes, of course. But wait 10 minutes.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 01:17 PM   #8 
  - It won't until a bit later today anyway  Atman   Dec-04-04 01:27 PM   #12 
  - OK, IT NOW INCLUDES STATE EXIT POLLING AND VOTE  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 01:28 PM   #13 
  - I love Excel, but you lost me...  Chicago Democrat   Dec-04-04 01:15 PM   #5 
  - rephrase, please: thank you LOTUS, for giving us 1-2-3  unblock   Dec-04-04 01:22 PM   #9 
  - I don't know that that relates to Window$, though....  kgfnally   Dec-04-04 01:25 PM   #10 
  - You are absolutely correct. I started using Lotus back in 1983.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 01:31 PM   #14 
  - Truth Be Known........the 1st PC spreadsheet application was developed by  Old and In the Way   Dec-04-04 01:44 PM   #17 
  - true, 1-2-3 wasn't invented out of whole cloth either  unblock   Dec-04-04 01:56 PM   #19 
  - Oh yes, I remember it well. But I never used it. My first: SUPERCALC  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 01:58 PM   #20 
  - This will make you laugh.......  googly   Dec-04-04 02:13 PM   #24 
     - My first machine was a TRS-80. FOUR K of RAM. Tiny Basic. Tiny Chess.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 02:25 PM   #27 
  - Windows today is the Mac of yesterday.  spooky3   Dec-04-04 03:14 PM   #29 
  - Thanks SUN for OpenOffice!  mulethree   Dec-04-04 01:27 PM   #11 
  - Any spreadsheet will do. Quattro Pro, Lotus, Excel...  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 01:32 PM   #15 
     - Here's a headline for ya  Straight Shooter   Dec-04-04 01:52 PM   #18 
        - there ya go!  unblock   Dec-04-04 02:02 PM   #23 
        - I agree....  AntiFascist   Dec-04-04 03:35 PM   #34 
  - I'll send to international monitors, in case they care.  Ojai Person   Dec-04-04 01:59 PM   #21 
  - A $5 calculator will tell you: *'s chances, 1 divided by 0, equals  bleever   Dec-04-04 02:01 PM   #22 
  - I'm wondering about...  Peace Patriot   Dec-04-04 02:17 PM   #26 
  - What if you subtracted 2 states from the * anomalies?  DireStrike   Dec-04-04 03:00 PM   #28 
  - People won't buy this  WithStamina   Dec-04-04 03:23 PM   #30 
  - capitulating to another stolen election  noiretblu   Dec-04-04 03:27 PM   #32 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-04-04 03:30 PM   #33 
  - Excellent analysis!!!  pilgrimsoul   Dec-04-04 03:40 PM   #36 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-04-04 04:01 PM   #42 
  - I don't support Bush  WithStamina   Dec-04-04 04:30 PM   #50 
  - exit polls are used to test validity of actual vote....every where but US?  bobbieinok   Dec-04-04 08:17 PM   #59 
  - If there are plenty of explanations  Faun Otter   Dec-04-04 08:55 PM   #61 
  - pollsters underestimated growth in voter turnout in...  badc0der   Dec-05-04 05:23 AM   #86 
  - "People won't buy this"?  Kurovski   Dec-04-04 10:24 PM   #66 
  - Plenty of explanations: Hackers. Spoiled ballots.Diebold. Es&S.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 11:32 PM   #69 
  - all those "maybe's" and ignoring facts make you look bad  rman   Dec-05-04 04:40 AM   #79 
  - "Maybe certain voters were more likely to respond to the pollers."  Zhade   Dec-05-04 04:45 AM   #81 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-04-04 03:43 PM   #37 
  - that's "an"  noiretblu   Dec-04-04 03:53 PM   #39 
  - Said the guy with the dope leaf avatar...  Atman   Dec-04-04 03:57 PM   #40 
  - Forwarded/cross-posted as to spread the word....  understandinglife   Dec-04-04 03:50 PM   #38 
  - Mitofsky still has some explaining to do.  jkd   Dec-04-04 04:07 PM   #43 
     - Here's the request from Dems for Mitofsky's Data (.pdf)  Patsy Stone   Dec-04-04 11:24 PM   #68 
        - Thank you and...  understandinglife   Dec-05-04 12:40 AM   #70 
           - Here's hoping!  Patsy Stone   Dec-05-04 12:45 AM   #71 
  - My calculations do not square with yours  mdhunter   Dec-04-04 03:59 PM   #41 
  - Your function gives a probability of 3.22759E-28  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 04:33 PM   #52 
  - Put another way, there's a 100 percent chance of what?  dargondogon   Dec-04-04 04:13 PM   #44 
  - Almost. There is a 100% probability that the deviations in  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 04:25 PM   #48 
  - TIA - we can be sure it was not chance  Faun Otter   Dec-04-04 09:11 PM   #64 
     - Of course it's NOT chance, I just wanted to show it mathematically.  TruthIsAll   Dec-05-04 04:23 AM   #75 
  - Stats are quite accurate  libertybelle   Dec-04-04 04:41 PM   #54 
  - 110K x 31 states = 3.41 million mandate  SoCalDem   Dec-04-04 05:13 PM   #58 
  - MOE varies with sample size  jfern   Dec-04-04 04:28 PM   #49 
  - But JFERN, the 2% is the Exit Poll MOE.  TruthIsAll   Dec-04-04 04:39 PM   #53 
  - The BIG PROBLEM is this...  lessthanjake   Dec-04-04 04:43 PM   #55 
  - Where do you get those times?  Atman   Dec-04-04 04:53 PM   #56 
  - Those Are Some Mighty Big Assumptions About When People Vote  mhr   Dec-04-04 04:56 PM   #57 
  - Time period weighted sampling  Faun Otter   Dec-04-04 09:02 PM   #62 
  - Is the number of states  bemis12   Dec-04-04 08:20 PM   #60 
  - Access to Hack it, then Excel to calculate it...Nice Symmetry there :-)  earth2chuck   Dec-04-04 09:05 PM   #63 
  - TIA, I love your posts  Protect The Vote   Dec-05-04 04:04 AM   #74 
     - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-05-04 04:26 AM   #76 
     - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-05-04 04:38 AM   #78 
        - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-05-04 04:40 AM   #80 
           - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-05-04 04:48 AM   #82 
              - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-05-04 04:51 AM   #83 
                 - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-05-04 04:54 AM   #84 
                    - I see - because I have 21 posts  bigmustelid2   Dec-05-04 05:08 AM   #85 
     - I can't help you with raw data. I got my data from the various  TruthIsAll   Dec-05-04 04:32 AM   #77 
        - Thanks, TIA  Protect The Vote   Dec-05-04 03:55 PM   #88 
 

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