Reply #1: Good luck to UKNick

[Anarcho-Socialist]

I don't think I ever crossed his path on DU but I hope he does well.

In regards to the Scottish elections, I think talk of breaking the union will count against the SNP's electoral chances as May draws near. They do seem likely of emerging as the largest party but they may not get into power, at least not outright. There could be a minority government, either SNP or Lib-Lab.

According to opinion polls over 40% of Scots "would like independence" but only about 32% favour breaking the political union with the rest of the UK, which does indicate that poll questions need to be made more explanatory. It could mean that some respondents equate "Scottish independence" with greater autonomy rather than as a separate national state. If my conjecture is true it may mean that Scottish nationalists have overestimated the desire for Scottish independence as they seek it.

Unfortunately I haven't kept note of the finer politics of the Welsh Assembly but I don't anticipate a 'nationalist earthquake.' Plaid Cymru seem to be at their weakest when discussing the independence issue, and I don't think anyone not least the Welsh know whether Plaid stand for greater autonomy or for a full-withdrawal from the UK. I don't think Plaid are quite sure either.