Reply #10: Email from Vince Leibowitz (The Dawn Group)

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http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=d1ec2e53fd0ec67267c8b038b&id=52ab186a2e

Dear Clients & Fellow Democrats:

As you have no doubt already heard, about an hour ago, the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order staying the interim redistricting maps for the Texas House of Representatives, the Texas Senate, and Texas' U.S. House delegation issued late last month by a three-judge panel in San Antonio.

We are being inundated with questions relating to the Court's decision and what impact it will have not only on state legislative and Congressional races but on county-level races on the March 6 Democratic Primary Ballot.

First and foremost, we'd like to point you to two scholarly assessments of tonight's decision by the Supreme Court. First, we encourage you to review Lyle Denniston's at Bloomberg Law's SCOTUS Blog. Second, we would encourage you to take a look at Richard Hansen's take on the ruling at the Election Law Blog. Professor Hansen teaches law and political science at the University of California-Irvine and is one of the nation's foremost election law and redistricting scholars.

As we interpret this evening's order, there are currently no valid congressional, state house, or state senate districts in which candidates may file in Texas, as the court has stayed the interim map pending the outcome of this appeal and made no further order which would revert the districts to the maps passed by the Texas Legislature. We interpret this to mean that all current filings that have been made for these positions are--at least for now--null and void.

Right now, the biggest question on the mind of most candidates and Democrats is "what happens to the March 6 Primary?" The court's order in no way alters the March 6th primary date for offices not covered by the maps stayed by the court. Although one could interpret the court's order as a de facto change to the primary date for Congressional, state house, and state senate seats because the court won't hear the case until January 9, 2012--and the first day to apply for a mail-in ballot for the 2012 Primary is January 6, 2012--it is not yet clear that this is the court's intention.

As several scholars have noted already this evening, the late publication of the court's order tonight could indicate that further interim orders are likely early next week. While we are hesitant to speculate on what those interim orders may contain if they materialize, it is our hope that the Court will take into consideration a number of factors before completely disrupting the Texas primary process. One possible scenario is that the court could order that the election to continue using either the interim maps or the maps passed by the Legislature, and that special elections would result only in those districts where boundaries are ultimately changed--if the court invalidates the interim maps. We place emphasis on the last phrase because that is a very key piece of the puzzle, as it is entirely possible that, although the court has agreed to hear the case and has issued a stay, the end result may be that the interim maps are upheld.

We will continue to monitor developments in these cases and will keep you informed as to new developments. As always, if you have questions, please feel free to call our Austin office at 512.318.2432.

Sincerely,
Vince Leibowitz
Principal Consultant
The Dawn Group

Links to the two assessments mentioned above are at the link at the top.