Reply #18: You say "No Dem in the race can hold a candle to" c4n3p? That's insane!

[Czolgosz]

There are only two problems with c4n3p's candidacy: (1) she can't win and (2) she shouldn't win.

C4n3p Can't Win

Here's the analysis of the Lone Star Project <http://www.lonestarproject.net/archive/2006voteproject.... >:

"The unusual multi-candidate gubernatorial field in Texas has created an environment that may defy current conventional wisdom. Particularly, early observers may be overestimating the ability of Carole Strayhorn to garner a plurality of support in a potential four candidate field without the base of support that a party nomination provides. Conversely, although Chris Bell has raised relatively little money to date, he won the Democratic primary easily and has a voting record and political history virtually all Democrats, and some true independents, can embrace.

An analysis of the four-candidate field, based on projected voter turnout in 2006, shows that in order to compete and win, Strayhorn would have to run a campaign that simultaneously cuts deeply into the expected Republican vote that would otherwise go to Rick Perry AND cut significantly into the expected Democratic vote that would otherwise go to Bell. Gaining a little from both won’t work, and cutting deeply into one, but not the other, falls short as well. ... Strayhorn has to win a difficult game of “playing both sides against the middle.” She has no natural base, so she has to carve one from a very large number of regular Republican voters. However, she must build this Republican base while establishing voter appeal to Democrats, with whom she has no natural affinity.

...

Strayhorn, interestingly, appears to face the most difficult task of all – she must concentrate heavily on voters who typically vote Republican in a two party race for at least two reasons.
1. Splitting or even winning a majority of Democratic voters does not get Strayhorn to a plurality. She must capture a major portion of votes that would otherwise go to Perry.
2. Carole is a Republican. She identified herself as a Republican. She became and ran as a Republican before Rick Perry. (Source: The Associated Press, 11/2/1986 and Associated Press, 5/11/1989) Prior to 2006, she had voted in every single Republican primary since at least 1990. (Source: Travis County Elections Administration) She has close political and family ties to the Bush White House. In 2002, she endorsed, ran with, and campaigned for the entire Texas Republican ticket, including Rick Perry."



This excellent analysis is confirmed by Mike Baselice, a pollster who was interviewed in the Texas Monthly article:

"In 2002 the most accurate pollster—by far—was Mike Baselice, who works for Perry and correctly predicted the outcomes of the state’s major races within fractions of a percentage point. Baselice believes that the race can be understood in terms of the built-in votes that Perry and Bell are likely to get as major-party nominees. “The lowest Republican vote this decade was David Dewhurst’s 51.8 percent in the 2002 lieutenant governor’s race against John Sharp,” he says. “So 52 percent is the base. The Democrats went as low as 32 percent, when Marty Akins got stomped for comptroller by Strayhorn. Let’s be generous and say the Republican base is only 50, the Democratic base is as much as 35, and the ticket splitters are the remaining 15.”

But how much of those base percentages can realistically be expected to hold? “Perry got 92 percent of the Republican vote in 2002,” says Baselice. “If he only gets 80 percent of his base, that puts him at 40 percent right away. But then you have to remember that he also got 15 percent of the Democratic vote against Sanchez.” Of the roughly 50 percent Republican vote, Baselice sees 80 percent going to Perry, 10 percent to Strayhorn, 5 percent to Bell, and 5 percent to Friedman. Of the Democrats’ 35 percent, he sees 75 percent going to Bell, 10 percent to Perry, 10 percent to Strayhorn, and 5 percent to Friedman. He assumes that the 15 percent independent vote will be split 30-30-30 among Perry, Strayhorn, and Bell, followed by Friedman with 10. The net result: Perry wins with 48 percent, followed by Bell at 33.25 percent, Strayhorn at 13 percent, and Friedman at 5.75 percent."

Finally, this is the same conclusion of analyst Chuck McDonald (links: <http://theredstate.typepad.com/texas/2006/03/strayhorns... >, <http://www.chrisbell.com/files/CBTV/CBTV_032006.html >)



C4n3p Shouldn't Win

As pointed out at Anyone But C4n3p (<http://anyonebutc4n3p.blogspot.com/2006/06/carole-4n3p-... >), c4n3p isn't JUST anti-choice, she's also unwilling to disclose her views on this crucial liberty:

Should Roe vs. Wade be overturned?

Bell: No. We need to reduce the number of abortions in Texas by reducing unwanted pregnancies. Gov. Rick Perry's policies have failed to reduce abortions, which have increased under his administration.

Perry: The final disposition of Roe vs. Wade is up to Congress or the courts.

Strayhorn: I believe in the sanctity of life.

Are Texas laws too restrictive for adult women? Would you favor adding new restrictions or repealing current ones?

Bell: The informed-consent requirements should conform to mainstream medical knowledge, which refutes the link between breast cancer and abortion. Medicaid births cost Texas several hundred million dollars a year; let's spend smart and reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies.

Perry: The governor has worked hard to increase the role of parents and guardians in the major life-changing decisions of their young daughters, and minor abortions have dropped significantly. He recently signed a parental-consent law because he believes it will save young lives by further involving parents.

Strayhorn: Declined to answer.

...

Should pharmacists be allowed to refuse to dispense the "morning-after" pill?

Bell: No. The morning-after pill is birth control. Doctors and patients should make health care decisions, not insurance companies, pharmacists and cynical politicians.

Perry: Yes, if it violates their conscience, they should not be forced to dispense such a pill.

Strayhorn: Declined to answer.

Should schools limit discussion of pregnancy prevention to abstinence-only?

Bell: Obviously, abstinence should play a prominent role in sex education. But we need to give our kids the age-appropriate, medically accurate information they need to keep from getting pregnant in the first place.

Perry: Abstinence is the surest way of preventing unintended pregnancies and should be taught as such.

Strayhorn: Declined to answer.

That's in addition to the fact that c4n3p (1) was the deciding vote to approve DeLay's illegal redistricting plan, (2) is anti-environment, (3) advocated cutting CHIPs money for Texas children's access to health care, (4) showed religious bigotry against the progressive Universalist Unitarian church, and (5) backed the homophobic Constitutional amendment to "re-ban" (it was ALREADY illegal) gay civil unions.



One more time: Did you actually suggest that "No Dem in the race can hold a candle to" c4n3p? That's beyond insane.