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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-21-05 08:24 PM
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3. Good to high chance ...
If the storm maintains the intensity it is predicted to have, by the time the remnants gets to OK, it'll be a gully-washer to be certain. The atmosphere will be very unstable, all the makings.

It won't be your typical outbreak of OK tornadoes, though, so it is hard to say exactly what will happen, and a lot of it will depend on exactly how much the storm weakens overall, how fast it is moving, and where it tracks. A standard outbreak pattern starts with a cold front moving west to east and interacting with warm, gulf air. The resulting storms move generally NE with the line itself moving generally east. Some of the storms can produce very powerful tornadoes that linger for dozens of miles and grow in strength.

That likely won't be the case with these. It'll be hit and miss, with individual storm cells moving in strange directions, interacting in ways that are difficult to predict, and producing short duration, fairly weak tornadoes. It'll be F1-F2, mostly, with perhaps a few stronger ones. Of course, even a weak one can tear a house apart.

Don't know what to advise. It's not going to be a good weekend, weather-wise. That much is for certain. If you leave, I'd try to find someone to check on them, and I wouldn't leave them outside. Localized flooding could be a problem and may be the bigger issue with this storm.

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