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Strawman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-25-07 10:30 AM
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24. Interesting discussion
Initially I was excited about Skinner running again, but upon further review, I don't really see anything wrong with Peters. bfealk does have a point. The goal is to unseat Knollenberg. Unseating an incumbent is incredibly hard. I can see the warrant for entering a primary when there is a substantive difference, but as much as I like Nancy Skinner I'm not so sure it's a great idea.

So I decided to take a quick look at the empirical evidence on the effects of divisive primaries. Kenney (1988) finds that divisive primaries have no effect on general election outcomes in Congressional elections.

Ok, so no harm in Nancy Skinner challenging Gary Peters then, right? I'm not so sure. bfealk makes another good point about the importance of early money to congressional challengers in his example about the cancelled Dean fundraiser for Gary Peters. Krasno, Green and Cowden (1994) find that early money is absolutely essential for challengers to be successful at raising money later on. It provides a signal of candidate viability to donors. It seems like there are two implications to this: 1) Nancy Skinner has little chance of raising the amount of money needed to be competitive and 2) She's hurting Peters' fundraising effort which will harm the viability of our general election candidate.

There's nothing ideal about this. It's not the way things ought to work, but barring a genuine substantive difference, I don't see the warrant for a primary challenge. I don't like "the establishment" at all. My gut reaction is to side with Nancy. But good intentions aren't good enough. There's enough evidence of a risk to the general election candidate here to suggest that making the sentimental choice here is irresponsible.
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  -Nancy Skinner announces her candidacy today SharonRB  Oct-16-07 10:16 AM   #0 
  - The 4 1/2 pdcast brought me to tears.  maddogesq   Oct-16-07 05:47 PM   #1 
  - Oh, god, give me a break  bfealk   Oct-18-07 07:54 PM   #6 
  - And look at what Joe did already  bfealk   Oct-17-07 05:12 AM   #2 
  - It's so hypocritical...  bfealk   Oct-17-07 05:17 AM   #3 
  - Hate to say this, but your comments are without merit.  maddogesq   Oct-17-07 08:11 PM   #4 
     - I predict Nancy will drop out after January reporting date  bfealk   Oct-18-07 07:54 PM   #5 
     - How much you wanna bet?  maddogesq   Oct-18-07 08:46 PM   #9 
     - Well MY money and vote will go to Nancy.  PassingFair   Oct-23-07 10:23 PM   #23 
     - And how much money do you think she can raise?  bfealk   Oct-18-07 07:59 PM   #7 
  - I would expect no less from Joe.  maddogesq   Oct-18-07 08:45 PM   #8 
     - She has every right to run  bfealk   Oct-18-07 09:33 PM   #10 
     - Muddy the waters, or has every right to run. You cannot have both.  maddogesq   Oct-18-07 10:13 PM   #12 
        - Sure I can  bfealk   Oct-19-07 04:22 AM   #13 
           - They are just rumors.  maddogesq   Oct-19-07 06:25 AM   #14 
              - Are you sure they're rumors?  bfealk   Oct-19-07 06:53 AM   #15 
              - You're right, maddog  SharonRB   Oct-19-07 12:20 PM   #16 
     - If there's a better candidate out there than Gary  bfealk   Oct-18-07 09:40 PM   #11 
  - I do not think we should discourage people from running.  JNelson6563   Oct-20-07 07:54 AM   #17 
  - I'll give you a concrete example  bfealk   Oct-20-07 06:42 PM   #18 
     - Dr. Dean is doing what is proper and ethical.  maddogesq   Oct-21-07 07:15 PM   #19 
        - My prediction stands...  bfealk   Oct-22-07 07:34 AM   #20 
  - She'll win this one  michreject   Oct-23-07 06:06 PM   #21 
  - She'll withdraw the same way Richardson will  bfealk   Oct-23-07 08:52 PM   #22 
  - Based on what evidence?  bfealk   Oct-27-07 05:03 AM   #25 
  - Interesting discussion  Strawman   Oct-25-07 10:30 AM   #24 
  - Out of curiosity, just how much active support from Peters and others did Nancy get in 2006?  TahitiNut   Oct-27-07 09:42 AM   #26 
     - I personally phone banked for Nancy and Jennifer  bfealk   Oct-27-07 01:50 PM   #27 
     - Nancy got no help from Peters or from the party itself  SharonRB   Oct-28-07 01:32 PM   #28 
     - And phone banking in Rochester ain't enough either.  maddogesq   Oct-28-07 10:22 PM   #29 
     - This is old too  bfealk   Oct-29-07 09:56 AM   #30 
     - Skinner did get money from the party  bfealk   Dec-26-07 04:42 AM   #31 
     - Excellent question.  ray of light   Dec-26-07 07:16 AM   #32 
        - Ok, this stuff really irks me  JNelson6563   Dec-26-07 06:45 PM   #33 
           - I agree Julie  bfealk   Dec-26-07 10:40 PM   #34 
              - I've not heard it so much as you think  JNelson6563   Dec-27-07 06:22 AM   #35 
                 - JNelson,  ray of light   Dec-28-07 07:03 AM   #36 
                    - No offense was intended  JNelson6563   Dec-28-07 09:09 AM   #37 
                    - I wasn't offended. I was just clearing my own 'record' of comments here.  ray of light   Dec-28-07 11:09 AM   #39 
                    - Every time I see one of those smears, I am reminded....  maddogesq   Dec-28-07 09:42 AM   #38 

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