Reply #10: A small underdog, similar to a 4 point underdog in football

[Awsi Dooger]

That's a 2-1 underdog man to man, almost nothing. For reference purposes, that's only slightly higher than Bush's odds on election day 2000, and we know how that should have turned out.

I believe Kerry's surge will be greater than expected, in polls and general support, based on the 19 people who filled my living room last night to watch the debate. A decisive debate victory is always underestimated by pundits just like the bounce out of the second convention. Bush's supposed 6-8 point lead is garbage, and the more likely 3-4 point margin includes some very soft support at the top, earned with the jingoistic nonsense at the end of his convention speech. His performance and behavior likely forfeited most of that, if not all. As I pointed out a few days ago, the undecideds include 2-3 points more women than men, and women will inevitably trend toward Kerry based on the debates. The women at my home preferred Kerry 7-1 last night.

Still, even if it's tied in the polls Kerry is still a minor underdog versus an incumbent. The administration can lauch a major attack on Iraqi insurgents on election eve, or any number of other possible advantages. They still haven't used that ridicuous picture of Kerry in the sperm suit from this summer.

There are three full weeks between the final debate and election day, significant advantage for an incumbent. I can't believe Kerry agreed to that schedule. Kerry desperately needs his daily campaigning and commercials to match the level of his debate skills.