Reply #7: of course it doesn't make sense

[Aramchek]

my point is that Intrade does not have a direct correlation with Reality

Extreme Example:
If you had checked the Intrade bet on whether Balloon boy was in the UFO or had fallen out on the day of the incident,
there would have been betting on both sides. And all bets would have been wrong.

You don't trust everything Wolf Blitzer says.
You should consider Intrade in the same light
They are both broken reflections of Public Opinion, which is itself rather wishy-washy.