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Reply #23: It's taken out monthly but probably a yearly cost [View All]

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TrogL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-31-09 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. It's taken out monthly but probably a yearly cost
Edited on Fri Jul-31-09 03:46 PM by TrogL
As to "winning" the next election, perhaps a brief introduction to the wacky world of Canadian politics might be in order.

Canada is a Parliamentary system (similar to Britain's). The election is won by a political party. The head of that party becomes Prime Minister and ostensibly "leads" the country although that leadership is primarily ceremonial - he has no real power at all. There is no equivalent to a President. The Queen signs documents but merely as a formality - the one time she was asked not to the controversy went on for the better part of a year.

There are four main parties.

Conservative - Republican-lite, conservative social, Reaganesque economics (assuming they get away with it which they don't)
Liberal - Centrist but ties to big business, liberal social, Keynesian economics
New Democratic Party (NDP) - left, left, left (they're the ones responsible for the Canadian health care system)
Bloc Quebecois - Quebec nationalists (with no real mandate), all-over-the-place, haven't gotten that far in their thinking

When the Liberals have a charismatic l eader (eg. Trudeau) and good policy wonks (eg. Chretien) they can usually form a majority government and get something accomplished. Currently they have neither.

When the Liberals have managed to get "mud on their face" (name that tune) they go down to defeat and the Conservatives (or whatever the right-wing party is called this week (amusingly, "CRAP" at one point)) often with a minority government, which is when the real fun begins :popcorn:.

In a parliamentary system, the government is in place until it either falls on a Motion of Non confidence or it decides it wants to hold an election (there is a law now in place that mollifies that slightly, but the Conservatives immediately broke that law so :shrug:). But...

...in order to keep "in power" a minority government has to make consessions, and more consessions, and MORE consessions to the point where the NDP (with the least number of seats) is passing bills and the Conservative government's own supporters are up in arms because Harper's turned into a closet Keynesian and saying "if this is what we get for 'winning' an election I'd hate to see what happened if we lost".

So who's going to "win" the next election? I'd say the NDP.

No, I'll never shake hands with Prime Minister Jake Layton (not that I haven't shaken his hands enough times and I have shaken PM Chretien and Martin's hands) - his economic ideas are so "out there" that they make my born-again Communism look like Reganomics, but he's not perceived as having any ties whatsoever into the current economic meltdown, all the health care noise downstairs is making people take a fresh look at some of his ideas for Canada and the NDP is gaining seats in key ridings, especially in Alberta.

I see a minority government - probably Conservative and probably a repeat of the previous scenario:

  • a lot of social conservative noise with no action
  • a lot of noise about Reaganomics masking a Keynesian policy to keep the Liberals happy
  • something on healthcare copied from the NDP playbook
  • some more bones thrown to Quebec

    ....unless....

    ...the Liberals suddenly get a charismatic leader (I don't think what's-his-name is if I can't remember his name - Ignatioff??) and a playbook from hell...

    ...unless....

  • hell freezes over
  • the Bloc Quebecois gives up in disgust
  • the Conservatives get mired in a juicy political scandal (sex won't do it - Harper could parade in full drag on the steps of Parliament and all that would happen is he'd get invited to the Rocky Horror Show)
  • the Canadian public still hasn't forgiven Chretien (don't ask why that's relevant - this is Canada :shrug:)
  • Jake Layton actually listens to his handlers and keeps some of his wilder ideas under his hat

    ...at which point who knows what Canada might look like.
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