Reply #25: Huge difference - HRC was not the incumbent President

[karynnj]

I really do not see a left wing challenge as even remotely likely. If the economy gets better - and one thing could about being so low - is that it is incredibly likely that it will be much better than when he took office. He also will be running with a huge asset - Michelle Obama, who as people have really seen her, has become very popular.

Defeating an incumbent President in the primaries rarely happens. Now, look at the Democrats and give me the name of even one, who you think both would and could win the nomination - even if things go badly. HRC really couldn't without looking tacky and she was placed by Biden as the hawk on Afghanistan. That also eliminate Biden. Kerry is too closely identified as an ally and he is too loyal to consider it. Bayh, Warner and Webb - all mentioned at one time or another are all to his right. I really think neither Gore or Dean want to be part of a brutal primary.

Now, it is true that in 1967, no one would have thought of Gene McCarthy - I think Obama is too close to the center of the Democratic party for there to be enough room on the left for a challenge. (Consider that there were no rumours of anyone challenging Clinton in 1996.)