Reply #33: But if Scalia or Thomas were replaced by a liberal justice Kennedy wouldn't be such a swing vote

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Kennedy is a swing vote because Scalia and Thomas will always vote wrong. If Scalia voted 50-50 then Kennedy's swing role would be cut in half.

So the right answer is that which changes the most votes including the votes of the justice herself.

So it has to be the justice whose replacement would represent the most change, not the justice it would be handiest to control on the court as currently constituted.