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Reply #20: PA primaries - shows us Obama's strength among PA voters, not his weakness [View All]

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ROh70 Donating Member (340 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 12:52 AM
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20. PA primaries - shows us Obama's strength among PA voters, not his weakness
Here's why. In the PA primaries, HRC had a huge 20 point lead, and then Obama whittled it down to single digits. It's only because undecideds broke late and heavily for Clinton that her lead widened on election day.

Now, here's why the undecideds going to HRC at the last minute actually proves Obama's strength in PA, not his weakness. Remember, HRC LOST a significant number of voters leading up to the election. Many of them went to Obama, and many of them became undecided. In other words, most of the undecideds were probably once Hillary supporters who became undecided because of Obama's appeal. Up until the last minute, these voters probably were torn between being loyal to Hillary/Bill, and voting for the new guy. In the end, they ultimately "came home" to Hillary, but obviously that decision was not an easy one, because they couldn't decide until the last minute.

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  -PA: Obama trailed Clinton by 6% in RCP and lost in the primary by 9% TheDonkey  Oct-29-08 12:30 AM   #0 
  - That's not statistically significant.  Zynx   Oct-29-08 12:31 AM   #1 
  - That's because Obama refused to pay Street Money.....  FrenchieCat   Oct-29-08 12:31 AM   #2 
  - I do remember in the aftermath there was talk that Obama was weaker than expected in  TheDonkey   Oct-29-08 12:33 AM   #6 
  - Why there and not, say, Virginia?  Bicoastal   Oct-29-08 12:31 AM   #3 
  - I thought Obama was down HUGE in PA, and made a big late comeback.  nico818   Oct-29-08 12:32 AM   #4 
  - !  NYC_SKP   Oct-29-08 12:35 AM   #8 
     - I'm talking about trailing in the Primary.  nico818   Oct-29-08 12:38 AM   #12 
        - You are right  TheDonkey   Oct-29-08 12:42 AM   #16 
  - Primaries are more difficult to predict than general elections.  Eric J in MN   Oct-29-08 12:33 AM   #5 
  - Good point  Awsi Dooger   Oct-29-08 03:09 AM   #30 
  - According to the RCP average, Obama did better than he was expected.  pot luck   Oct-29-08 12:35 AM   #7 
  - A 3 point swing is within the MOE.  Drunken Irishman   Oct-29-08 12:35 AM   #9 
  - The primary was a whole different ball game  KingFlorez   Oct-29-08 12:37 AM   #10 
  - It's not the margin! It's Obama's absolute numbers.  zlt234   Oct-29-08 12:37 AM   #11 
  - That is interesting  TheDonkey   Oct-29-08 12:41 AM   #15 
  - Bradley is no effect!  RememberWellstone   Oct-29-08 12:38 AM   #13 
  - The question is, would these Democrats still be RACIST enough  elkston   Oct-29-08 12:41 AM   #14 
  - Good point  rufus dog   Oct-29-08 12:56 AM   #21 
     - Actually I do beleive a "hard" racist would vote for a white woman over any black (n/t)  elkston   Oct-29-08 01:04 AM   #24 
  - Party vs. Party  TheKentuckian   Oct-29-08 12:42 AM   #17 
  - RCP has obama up 9.8.  quakerboy   Oct-29-08 12:43 AM   #18 
  - If I had it I would bet a million bucks on PA going blue this year.  Quixote1818   Oct-29-08 12:46 AM   #19 
  - PA primaries - shows us Obama's strength among PA voters, not his weakness  ROh70   Oct-29-08 12:52 AM   #20 
  - I just have a hard time believing that Obama would lose a Kerry state.  mwei924   Oct-29-08 12:58 AM   #22 
  - McCain is not Hillary and Palin certainly isn't. The choice is clear. NT  Clio the Leo   Oct-29-08 12:58 AM   #23 
  - Don't worry about Pittsburgh  rschmitt   Oct-29-08 02:16 AM   #25 
  - Ohhhh 3 whole points! That bradely effect sure has diminished.  anonymous171   Oct-29-08 02:17 AM   #26 
  - Another thing to dwell on.  political_Dem   Oct-29-08 02:22 AM   #27 
  - I think we may be ahead enough here to offset the racist idiots.  MrSlayer   Oct-29-08 02:58 AM   #28 
  - No Limbaugh effect in the general election  GoesTo11   Oct-29-08 03:00 AM   #29 
  - many reasons why this is BS  krawhitham   Oct-29-08 03:20 AM   #31 

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