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Reply #33: It makes no sense that anyone would use party weighting at all, [View All]

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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-28-08 04:02 AM
Response to Reply #22
33. It makes no sense that anyone would use party weighting at all,
when party identification is so fluid.

The national association of pollsters advises against it, but Zogby weights by party now. I'm assuming they use 2004 exit poll numbers, which would explain why their results show a narrow gap between Obama and McCain. (Republicans are being over-weighted in the poll.)
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  -Zogby 4 point lead (49-45) rises to 9 points (51-42) using Rasmussen party ID weights Chasing Dreams  Oct-28-08 12:28 AM   #0 
  - Zogby Does Not Believe in Weighting on Self-Reported Party ID  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 12:31 AM   #1 
  - Zogby's track record has pretty much proven him to be  msallied   Oct-28-08 12:33 AM   #2 
  - Well, He Showed Himself Biased Toward Kerry Last Time  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 12:45 AM   #8 
     - No, I don't like him because he's a push-polling fraud  msallied   Oct-28-08 12:48 AM   #11 
     - I Didn't Follow All the Details of the "Push-Polling" Controversy  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 01:15 AM   #24 
        - Someone screen-captured the poll itself.  msallied   Oct-28-08 01:24 AM   #26 
           - Yes, I Saw That Screen Shot  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 01:41 AM   #28 
     - No, I like him as a person,  Chasing Dreams   Oct-28-08 12:49 AM   #12 
     - Since Nate Silver's Name is So Ubiquitous on That Site,  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 02:22 AM   #30 
     - We dont like him cuz his polls have sucked, he push polls, releases Internet polls leaks to Drudge  hnmnf   Oct-28-08 01:05 AM   #21 
  - Fine. But that is the difference between the widening and narrowing poll stories in the MSM.  Chasing Dreams   Oct-28-08 12:39 AM   #4 
  - What Gallup is Doing  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 12:58 AM   #19 
  - What kind of Democrat leaks their numbers early to Drudge and Push Polls for Newsmaxx?  hnmnf   Oct-28-08 01:15 AM   #25 
  - Zogby actually does weight by party.  pnwmom   Oct-28-08 03:57 AM   #32 
  - Honestly, I doubt that has much effect  democrattotheend   Oct-28-08 05:43 AM   #35 
  - "Principle" has exacly ZERO to do with modeling.  BlooInBloo   Oct-28-08 12:44 AM   #7 
  - Weighting on Self-Identification  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 12:51 AM   #13 
     - That's ridiculous. Women have leaned toward the Democratic candidate for the last four cycles.  Chasing Dreams   Oct-28-08 01:00 AM   #20 
        - No, Not at All  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 01:13 AM   #23 
           - I'm going to quibble a bit more, but at least you are apparently agreeing that Zogby's weights may  Chasing Dreams   Oct-28-08 01:25 AM   #27 
              - You are Correct That Income is Self Reported  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 01:57 AM   #29 
  - I agree with him in principle also  Awsi Dooger   Oct-28-08 12:46 AM   #9 
  - I Didn't Know That's How He Did It  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 12:52 AM   #14 
  - That is no longer his position, although it is the position of the national  pnwmom   Oct-28-08 03:56 AM   #31 
     - Thank You.  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 09:00 AM   #36 
        - The pollster determines the methodology. But indirectly, the customer does,  pnwmom   Oct-28-08 10:37 AM   #37 
           - Is That True?  ribofunk   Oct-28-08 11:43 AM   #38 
              - Thanks for the article. Here's one you might be interested in,  pnwmom   Oct-28-08 12:53 PM   #40 
  - 11% DEM??  Amonester   Oct-28-08 12:33 AM   #3 
  - Not sure where your getting at, but the table is a little hard to read  Chasing Dreams   Oct-28-08 12:42 AM   #5 
     - I was referring to the 11% registered DEM (?) who said they'll...  Amonester   Oct-28-08 12:53 AM   #15 
  - Zogby is full of shit  BrentTaylor   Oct-28-08 12:42 AM   #6 
  - So does this mean Rasmussen's numbers will be more favorable for Obama tomorrow?  Drunken Irishman   Oct-28-08 12:46 AM   #10 
  - Doubtful. I seem to recall that he has independents going only slightly toward Obama.  Chasing Dreams   Oct-28-08 12:53 AM   #16 
     - Well just as long as it doesn't tighten again.  Drunken Irishman   Oct-28-08 12:55 AM   #17 
     - And, to answer the pollster's call, they have to call them in the first place.  Amonester   Oct-28-08 12:57 AM   #18 
  - It makes no sense to me that Zogby or anyone else would rely  WCGreen   Oct-28-08 01:10 AM   #22 
  - It makes no sense that anyone would use party weighting at all,  pnwmom   Oct-28-08 04:02 AM   #33 
  - Zo(m)by Is A Pundit First And Then A Pollster  DemocratSinceBirth   Oct-28-08 04:05 AM   #34 
  - Zogby has never been right.  budkin   Oct-28-08 11:46 AM   #39 
 

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