You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

The Daily Widget, Wed 10/22 – O-378, M-160 – Indiana Blue; Obama Leads By 8 Million Votes [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-22-08 06:32 AM
Original message
The Daily Widget, Wed 10/22 – O-378, M-160 – Indiana Blue; Obama Leads By 8 Million Votes
Advertisements [?]




1. ANALYSIS

Eighteen state polls were released yesterday: 8 for swing states, 3 for blue states and 7 for red states. And yet Barack Obama’s lead grows, even when the mix of states being polled leans to the right. Obama isn’t done winning over voters in red states.

Take Indiana, for instance. Most polls this year conducted in Indiana have shown a McCain lead, sometimes a strong lead. Only four polls all year had shown Obama leading, two of which were conducted by the highest rated pollster: J. Ann Selzer. But everyone still has their doubts that Obama could be able to pull off a win in Indiana. A new poll, however, now shows Obama leading by 2 points over John McCain in Indiana. Where there’s a will, there’s a way, especially since the number of total registered voters this year in Indiana is 38% higher than in 2004. Indiana moves into the Lean Obama column today.

That leaves the Lean McCain column completely empty today. The Red Sea has parted. Maybe we can fill that with Arkansas, if we can coax a pollster to conduct a poll there. Keep in mind that an empty column is a vacuum and could just as easily be filled with a Lean Obama state as well. (Fingers crossed)

But I wonder if that’s possible, as Obama now leads by 8 million votes over McCain in the popular vote total from state polls (see Figure 4a below), and the periodic national polls released yesterday continue to explode for Obama. CBS is showing Obama leading by 13 points nationwide, while NBC is showing a 10 point lead and ABC is showing a 9 point lead (see Figure 4c below). Even the daily trackers picked up some ground on average.

With 13 days remaining until the election, things are looking good for us!



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Colorado Obama 51, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 576 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 47 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19, +/- 2.9, 1158 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 32, B0, N2 (Chicago Tribune, 10/18, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/19, +/- 2.6, 1411 LV)
Kentucky Obama 41, McCain 54 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 4.3, 535 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/19, +/- 3.6, 690 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 38 (Monmouth University, 10/18, +/- 3.7, 723 LV)
New Jersey Obama 59, McCain 36 (Quinnipiac University, 10/19, +/- 2.9, 1184 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/19, +/- 3.6, 698 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 627 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 45 (Civitas, 10/20, +/- 4.2, 600 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 35, McCain 59 (Survey USA, 10/19, +/- 4.2, 561 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32.4, McCain 63.7 (TvPoll.com, 10/20, +/- 3.5, 763 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
South Carolina Obama 43, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
West Virginia Obama 43, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wyoming Obama 32, McCain 58 (Mason-Dixon, 10/14, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Wyoming Obama 37, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 10/19, +/- 4.0, 604 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information




7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes



.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC