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10/14 Election Model (TIA): Obama 372EV (51.2-44.8%, 74-64m); Elec'n Calculator:(55.7-40.4%, 80-58m) [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-15-08 08:14 PM
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10/14 Election Model (TIA): Obama 372EV (51.2-44.8%, 74-64m); Elec'n Calculator:(55.7-40.4%, 80-58m)
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Edited on Wed Oct-15-08 09:12 PM by tiptoe



2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation



Updated: October 14

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

  • Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend
  • Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection
  • Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends
  • Chart   Battleground-State Polls
  • Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability
  • Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend
  • Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend
  • Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability
  • Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
     2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 
  • Uncounted  &  Switched Votes
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share
  • Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote
  •  
     
    This
    State
    National
    State
    National
    Monte Carlo
    Simulation

    Update
    Poll
    5-Poll
    2-party
    2-party
    Expected

    10/14/2008
    Aggregate
    Average
    Projection
    Projection
    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    McCain
     50.09 (53.24) 
     43.99 (46.76) 
     50.00 (54.11) 
     42.40 (45.89) 
    53.64
    46.36
    54.56
    45.44
    367
    171


        

    15-Poll

    End

    Sample

    Poll
    NATIONAL MODEL
     
    Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
    5-Poll Mov Avg
     
    2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
    5-Poll Mov Avg

    Trend
                                
    Research2k
    Gallup
    Hotline/FD
    Rasmussen
    Zogby

    Battleground
    ABC/WP
    Newsweek
    FOX News
    Ipsos

    NBC/WSJ
    CBS/NYT
    CNN
    Marist
    AP/GfK

    Registered V
    vs     Likely V
    Poll Averages

    Date
                
    10/13
    10/12
    10/12
    10/13
    10/13

    10/12
    10/11
    10/09
    10/09
    10/06

    10/05
    10/05
    10/05
    09/30
    09/30

    Size   
                  
    1100 LV
    2700 RV
    838 LV
    3000 LV
    1208 LV

    814 LV
    766 LV
    1035 RV
    900 RV
    858 RV

    658 RV
    616 LV
    694 LV
    943 LV
    808 LV

    RV avg
    LV avg
    Total
    2-party
    MoE
             
    2.95%
    1.89%
    3.39%
    1.79%
    2.82%

    3.43%
    3.54%
    3.05%
    3.27%
    3.35%

    3.82%
    3.95%
    3.72%
    3.19%
    3.45%
    Obama
                
    52
    51
    48
    50
    49

    51
    53
    52
    46
    47

    49
    48
    53
    49
    48

    49
    50.1
    49.7
    54.0
    McCain
                
    41
    41
    42
    45
    43

    43
    43
    41
    39
    40

    43
    45
    45
    44
    41

    40.8
    43.2
    42.4
    46.0
    Other
                
    7
    8
    10
    5
    8

    6
    4
    7
    15
    13

    8
    7
    2
    7
    11

    10.2
    6.7
    7.9
    0.0
    Spread
                
    11
    10
    6
    5
    6

    8
    10
    11
    7
    7

    6
    3
    8
    5
    7

    8.2
    6.9
    7.3
    8.0
     
    Obama
                
    50.0
    49.8
    50.2
    51.0
    50.2

    49.8
    49.4
    48.4
    48.6
    49.2

    49.4
    49.6
    49.6
    49.0
    49.0
    McCain
                
    42.4
    42.8
    43.2
    43.0
    41.8

    41.2
    41.2
    41.6
    42.4
    43.4

    43.6
    43.2
    43.2
    42.8
    42.6
    Spread
                
    7.6
    7.0
    7.0
    8.0
    8.4

    8.6
    8.2
    6.8
    6.2
    5.8

    5.8
    6.4
    6.4
    6.2
    6.4
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    98.7

    98.0
    97.1
    98.5
    98.9
    98.9

    99.0
    99.4
    98.3
    100.0
    100.0
     
    Obama
                
    54.6
    54.2
    54.2
    54.6
    55.0

    55.2
    55.0
    54.4
    54.0
    53.6

    53.6
    53.9
    53.9
    53.9
    54.0
    McCain
                
    45.4
    45.8
    45.8
    45.4
    45.0

    44.8
    45.0
    45.6
    46.0
    46.4

    46.4
    46.1
    46.1
    46.1
    46.0
    Spread
                
    9.1
    8.5
    8.3
    9.2
    10.0

    10.4
    10.1
    8.8
    8.0
    7.3

    7.2
    7.8
    7.8
    7.8
    8.1
    Win Prob
                   
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.8

    99.5
    99.1
    99.8
    99.8
    99.8

    99.8
    100.0
    99.9
    100.0
    100.0
     

     
    The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all of the battleground states. Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials with an expected (average) 367171 electoral vote margin. His median EV was 371; the mode (most frequent trial result) was 372. He has a 99% probability of winning at least 330 electoral votes.

    View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

    National polls are current; state poll lag by a week or more. Obamas projected aggregate state 2-party vote (53.64%) is approaching the national average (54.56%) as the time lag between the polls decreases.

    The three most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are OH (20.9), NC (20.90) and FL (14.3). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states. The percentages change when the polls are updated.

    For McCain to win, he needs to switch at least 8% (1 in 12) of Obamas votes to his column.


    National Model
    Tracking Poll Average
    Projected Vote (2-party)
    Actual Projected

    State Model
    Aggregate Poll Share
    Projected Vote (2-party)
    Actual Projected

    Electoral Vote
    Poll
    Projected
    Expected value
    Obama
    50.00
    54.56
    52.16


    50.09
    53.64
    51.24


    372
    372
    367.12
    McCain
    42.40
    45.44
    43.84


    43.99
    46.36
    44.76


    166
    166
    170.88
    Calculation method (base case)
    Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
    Poll average+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
    4% to third parties


    Weighted average of state polls (2004 recorded vote)
    Poll aggregate+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
    4% to third parties


    Unadjusted Poll Leader
    Poll + 60% undecided (UVA) to Obama
    EV = ∑ (Projection win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states

     

    Monte Carlo Simulation (60% UVA to Obama, 5000 election trials)
    Mean
    Median
    Mode
    Maximum
    Minimum
    367.20
    371
    372
    417
    299
    170.80
    167
    166
    121
    239
    Average Expected EV
    Middle value
    Most frequent EV


     

    Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities
    Minimum Electoral Vote
    Winning Trials >Min EV
    Probability (EV > Min)
    270
    5000
    100.0%
    310
    4996
    99.92%
    330
    4953
    99.1%
    350
    4475
    89.5%
    370
    2546
    50.9%
    390
    179
    3.6%
    410
    5
    0.10%


    Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

    Electoral-vote.com and RealClearPolitics now closely match the Election Model. As indicated in a prior update, these sites assign the full electoral vote to the state poll leader (regardless of the spread); they avoid using state win probabilities in calculating the EV. In the past, their EV totals were low and volatile compared to the Election Model; the polls were close and they did not allocate undecided voters. Now that Obama has pulled ahead in every battleground state, the Election Model undecided voter kick has virtually no impact on his expected EV; he is already projected to win.

    The discrepancy in win probabilities between the Election Model (100%) and FiveThirtyEight (90%) is due to fundamental differences in methodology. The 538 model adjusts state poll projections based on pollster rating weights as well as other factors. They forecast Election Day result. The Election Model assumes the election is held today and is fraud-free. The Election Model does not rank pollsters, but it does adjust the latest state poll average for a range of undecided voter allocations (4080%) a sensitivity what-if analysis.

    Ranking pollsters based on prior election results is a two-edged sword. If a pollster (Rasmussen) comes close to the recorded vote in a rigged election, does that mean he was more accurate than one who correctly projected the True Vote (Zogby)? Compare their performance in the 2000 election (Zogby was correct, Rasmussen was way off) to the totally corrupt 2004 election (Rasmussen was correct and Zogby was off). This was the electoral-vote.com EV map on Nov 1, 2004.

    Compare the FiveThirtyEight Electoral Vote Distribution chart to the Election Model Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart.
     

    The Election Calculator Model

    In May, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 7159m.

    May 2008
    Estimated vote share

    2004
    DNV
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    Turnout

    95%
    95%
    95%

    113.7
    Voted
    17.2
    60.5
    51.6
    1.6

    130.9
    Mix
    13.1%
    46.2%
    39.4%
    1.2%

    100.0%
    130.9m
    Obama
    59%
    89%
    11%
    70%

    54.1%
    70.8m
    McCain
    40%
    10%
    88%
    11%

    44.7%
    58.5m
    Other
    1%
    1%
    1%
    19%

    1.2%
    1.6m

     
    On October 14, the Calculator was updated to include new information:

    1) An increase of over 20% in new registered voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic.
    2) A slight increase in the estimated Obama share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
    3) An increase in third party vote share.

    Obama is now projected to win by 8058 million votes in a fraud-free landslide.

    2004
    DNV
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    Turnout

    95%
    95%
    95%

    113.7
    Votes
    29.9
    60.6
    51.6
    1.6

    143.7
    Mix
    20.8%
    42.2%
    35.9%
    1.1%

    100.0%
    143.7m
    Obama
    59%
    92%
    11%
    64%

    55.7%
    80.1m
    McCain
    35%
    5%
    86%
    11%

    40.4%
    58.1m
    Other
    6%
    3%
    3%
    25%

    3.9%
    5.6m

     
    The model sensitivity analysis indicates the following, assuming other vote shares are held constant:
    If Obama wins just 9% of returning Bush voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.5m votes (54.241.6%).
    If he wins just 55% of new voters and 90% of Kerry voters, he would win by 17.2m votes (5442%).
    If he wins by 5244%, he would win by 74.763.4m.
    If he wins by 5046%, he would win by 71.866.2m.


    The 1988-2004 Election Calculator was developed as a response to the Final 2004 National Exit Poll.
    The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.

    In the Final, 43% of 2004 voters (52.6m) were former Bush 2000 voters; 37% were Gore voters.
    But Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000.
    Approximately 2.5m died and another 2.5m did not return to vote.
    Therefore, only 45.5m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.

    The Final overstated the Bush vote by 7 million in order to match a corrupt miscounted vote.

    The 2004 True Vote calculation was based on an estimated 100.1m returning 2000 voters, calculated as:
    Total votes cast in 2000 (110.8m) less voter mortality (5.4m) times 95% turnout (100.1m).
    Vote shares were based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll.

    The model determined that Kerry won by 66.957.1 million.

    Kerry did slightly better (53.2%) than the unadjusted state exit poll (52.0%) aggregate.
    The results indicate that 5.4m votes (8.0% of Kerrys total) were switched from Kerry to Bush.

    2004
    DNV
    Kerry
    Bush
    Other

    Total
    Cast
    Turnout

    95%
    95%
    95%

    100.1
    Votes
    25.6
    49.7
    46.6
    3.8

    125.7
    Mix
    20.4%
    39.5%
    37.1%
    3.0%

    100.0%
    125.7m
    Kerry
    57%
    91%
    10%
    64%

    53.2%
    66.9m
    Bush
    41%
    8%
    90%
    17%

    45.4%
    57.1
    Other
    2%
    1%
    0%
    19%

    1.4%
    1.7m
     


    Recorded Vote share
    Recorded Vote

    Unadjusted Exit Poll
    Deviation from True Vote
     
    122.3
     
     
     
    48.3%
    59.0

    52.0%
    1.2%
    50.7%
    62.0

    47.0%
    +1.6%
    1.0%
    1.2

    1.0%
    -0.4%




     


    THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

     
    S T A T E   M O D E L
     
    N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
     
    MONTE CARLO
    SIMULATION

     
    L A T E S T  S T A T EP O L L  A V E R A G E
     
    L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O VA V E R A G E
     
    EXPECTED

     
    Weighted
    Aggregate
    2-party
    Current
    2-party
    Projection
    Actual
    Projection
     

    5-Poll
    5-Poll 2-party
    Current
    2-party
    Projection
    Actual
    Projection
     
    ELECTORAL VOTE

     
     
     
    60% UVA
     
     
     
     
    60% UVA

    10/14/2008
    Obama
    McCain

    50.09
    43.99
     

    53.24
    46.76
     

    53.64
    46.36
     

    51.24
    44.76
     

     
     
     

    50.00
    42.40
     

    54.11
    45.89
     

    54.56
    45.44
     

    52.16
    43.84
     

     
     
     

    367.2
    170.8
     


     
    75% UVA
     
     
     
     
    75% UVA

    11/01/2004
    Kerry
    Bush

    47.88
    46.89
     

    50.52
    49.48
     

    51.80
    48.20
     

    51.05
    47.95
     

     
     
     

    47.80
    46.60
     

    50.64
    49.36
     

    51.77
    48.23
     

    51.25
    47.75
     

     
     
     

    337
    201
     



    Sensitivity Analysis Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama

    Uncounted
    1%
     
    2%
     
    3%
     

    Switched
    4%
    6%
    8%
    Vote%
    51.3
    50.2
    49.1
    EV
    328
    303
    272
    Vote%
    51.1
    50.0
    48.9
    EV
    324
    297
    266
    Vote%
    50.8
    49.8
    48.7
    EV
    318
    292
    259


    Sensitivity Analysis Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share

    Undecided Voter Allocation
    Current
    Base Case

    Obama
    40%
    53.3%
    60%
    75%
    80%


    Projected 2-Party Vote Share

    Obama
    McCain
    52.5
    47.5
    53.3
    46.7
    53.64
    46.36
    54.5
    45.5
    54.8
    45.2


    MoE
    Popular Vote Obama Win Probability (Normdist)

    1.0 %
    2.0 %
    3.0 %
    100.0
    99.2
    94.6
    100.0
    99.9
    98.3
    100.0
    100.0
    99.1
    100.0
    100.0
    99.9
    100.0
    100.0
    99.9


    Electoral Vote Obama       (Monte Carlo Simulation:  based on state win-probabilities)

    Mean
    Median
    351.4
    353
    363.1
    367
    367.2
    371
    380.9
    383
    386.0
    386
    Mode
    353
    367
    371
    383
    386
     
    Maximum
    Minimum
    417
    283
    417
    299
    417
    299
    441
    325
    447
    330


    Electoral Vote Obama Win Probability

    Trial Wins
    Probability
    5000
    100.0
    5000
    100.0
    5000
    100.0
    5000
    100.0
    5000
    100.0


    95% EV Confidence Interval
    Upper
    Lower
    385
    318
    393
    333
    395
    339
    410
    352
    416
    356


    States Won
    Obama
    29
    31
    31
    31
    31


     

    2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

    National Model see atop
    State Model
    (2-party vote shares)
    L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L
     
    KEY STATES
    (within MoE)
     
    2004 EM  KERRY  VOTEPROJECTION  vs
    EXIT POLL  &  RECORDED VOTECOUNT
     
    2008  vs  2004
    PROJECTED  VOTE

     

     
     
    Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
     
    60% UVA
    Projection
     
    MC Exp EV
    Win Prob
     

    Resource  Allocation
     
    Vote
    Projected
    WPE (IM)
     Exit Poll 
    Vote
    Counted
     
    Kerry Projection
    deviation
     
     
    2008 Obama
    diff
     
    StatesEV
    Flip To(*)


       

    AL
    AK
    AZ
    AR
    CA

    CO
    CT
    DC
    DE
    FL

    GA
    HI
    ID
    IL
    IN

    IA
    KS
    KY
    LA
    ME

    MD
    MA
    MI
    MN
    MS

    MO
    MT
    NE
    NV
    NH

    NJ
    NM
    NY
    NC
    ND

    OH
    OK
    OR
    PA
    RI

    SC
    SD
    TN
    TX
    UT

    VT
    VA
    WA
    WV
    WI
    WY
    Last
    Poll
    Date

    10/9
    9/21
    9/30
    9/22
    10/9

    10/12
    9/28
    9/13
    10/9
    10/11

    10/9
    9/20
    9/17
    9/20
    10/6

    10/9
    9/22
    9/28
    9/28
    9/25

    9/23
    9/25
    10/12
    10/12
    9/16

    10/12
    9/26
    9/17
    10/9
    10/6

    10/12
    9/22
    10/11
    10/11
    10/9

    10/11
    9/17
    10/11
    10/11
    9/16

    9/23
    9/21
    9/29
    9/16
    9/13

    9/22
    10/11
    10/2
    10/8
    10/12
    9/28
    VoteShare
    Popular
    Electoral

    9
    3
    10
    6
    55

    9
    7
    3
    3
    27

    15
    4
    4
    21
    11

    7
    6
    8
    9
    4

    10
    12
    17
    10
    6

    11
    3
    5
    5
    4

    15
    5
    31
    15
    3

    20
    7
    7
    21
    4

    8
    3
    11
    34
    5

    3
    13
    11
    5
    10
    3
    Obama
    50.09 %
    372

    37
    38
    38
    37
    56

    52
    54
    90
    56
    50

    45
    68
    33
    56
    45

    54
    40
    42
    40
    50

    57
    56
    54
    51
    44

    51
    45
    37
    49
    52

    54
    52
    64
    48
    45

    49
    34
    56
    53
    55

    41
    39
    39
    38
    28

    55
    51
    53
    50
    54
    37
    McCain
    43.99 %
    166

    61
    55
    52
    47
    40

    42
    38
    9
    38
    44

    50
    27
    62
    38
    49

    41
    56
    53
    55
    43

    38
    39
    38
    40
    52

    45
    51
    56
    45
    42

    42
    44
    31
    47
    43

    46
    64
    41
    40
    35

    54
    55
    57
    51
    64

    36
    44
    43
    42
    37
    58
     
    Spread
    6.09 %
    206

    (24)
    (17)
    (14)
    (10)

    16

    10
    16
    81
    18
    6

    (5)
    41
    (29)
    18
    (4)

    13
    (16)
    (11)
    (15)

    7

    19
    17
    16
    11
    (8)

    6
    (6)
    (19)

    4
    10

    12
    8
    33
    1
    2

    3
    (30)
    15
    13
    20

    (13)
    (16)
    (18)
    (13)
    (36)


    19
    7
    10
    8
    17
    (21)
     
    Obama
    53.64 %
    372

    38.2
    42.2
    44.0
    46.6
    58.4

    55.6
    58.8
    90.6
    59.6
    53.6

    48.0
    71.0
    36.0
    59.6
    48.6

    57.0
    42.4
    45.0
    43.0
    54.2

    60.0
    59.0
    58.8
    56.4
    46.4

    53.4
    47.4
    41.2
    52.6
    55.6

    56.4
    54.4
    67.0
    51.0
    52.2

    52.0
    35.2
    57.8
    57.2
    61.0

    44.0
    42.6
    41.4
    44.6
    32.8

    60.4
    54.0
    55.4
    54.8
    59.4
    40.0
     
    Obama
    100.0 %
    367.1

    0.0
    0.0
    0.2
    4.8
    100.0

    99.7
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    96.1

    16.4
    100.0
    0.0
    100.0
    24.6

    100.0
    0.0
    0.7
    0.0
    98.0

    100.0
    100.0
    100.0
    99.9
    3.9

    95.2
    10.1
    0.0
    89.9
    99.7

    99.9
    98.4
    100.0
    68.8
    85.9

    83.6
    0.0
    100.0
    100.0
    100.0

    0.2
    0.0
    0.0
    0.4
    0.0

    100.0
    97.5
    99.6
    99.1
    100.0
    0.0
     
    Percent

            











    14.1

    10.5



    9.6





    1.4





    1.0

    5.7
    1.6

    4.4



    0.9

    20.9
    3.7

    20.9












    4.5

    0.9

     
    Rank

            











    3

    4



    5





    11





    12

    6
    10

    8



    13

    1
    9

    1












    7

    13

     
    Final  Kerry
    51.75 %
    337

    42.0
    39.8
    48.8
    50.5
    55.8

    50.8
    56.5
    86.3
    57.8
    52.3

    46.5
    52.5
    38.3
    57.0
    41.3

    54.5
    39.3
    42.8
    49.0
    58.3

    56.3
    70.8
    54.3
    55.0
    47.3

    49.3
    41.3
    37.3
    50.5
    51.5

    56.0
    50.5
    60.0
    49.3
    42.5

    52.3
    36.3
    54.5
    53.8
    62.0

    44.3
    46.5
    49.3
    40.0
    29.3

    58.3
    48.5
    55.0
    49.5
    54.8
    33.5
    JK Unadj
    52.51 %
    337

    42.1
    41.6
    44.9
    45.7
    60.9

    50.7
    63.4
    91.9
    61.9
    51.4

    42.3
    58.5
    32.7
    57.0
    40.7

    51.2
    37.7
    40.2
    44.0
    56.6

    60.3
    66.6
    55.0
    56.4
    49.8

    49.3
    38.2
    37.6
    53.7
    57.8

    58.0
    53.6
    65.5
    49.7
    35.2

    54.3
    33.8
    53.0
    55.5
    63.3

    46.3
    36.5
    43.5
    42.3
    28.9

    68.1
    50.3
    57.7
    40.5
    52.6
    33.3
    Kerry
    48.76 %
    252

    37.2
    35.9
    44.8
    45.0
    54.9

    47.5
    54.9
    90.1
    53.9
    47.6

    41.8
    54.6
    30.6
    55.4
    39.7

    49.7
    37.0
    40.1
    42.6
    54.1

    56.5
    62.6
    51.7
    51.6
    40.2

    46.6
    39.0
    33.0
    48.4
    50.7

    53.5
    49.5
    59.0
    44.0
    35.9

    49.2
    34.8
    51.9
    51.4
    60.0

    41.3
    38.8
    43.0
    38.6
    26.3

    59.5
    45.9
    53.4
    43.6
    50.2
    29.4

     
    Exit Poll
    0.75 %
      0  

    0.14
    1.84
    (3.87)
    (4.78)

    5.17

    (0.03)
    6.92
    5.69
    4.10
    (0.84)

    (4.20)

    6.03
    (5.55)
    (0.03)
    (0.56)

    (3.32)
    (1.56)
    (2.56)
    (5.02)
    (1.63)


    4.01
    (4.11)
    0.71
    1.42
    2.57

    0.05
    (3.08)
    0.32
    3.22
    6.25

    1.96
    3.14
    5.48
    0.48
    (7.27)

    2.02
    (2.42)
    (1.50)
    1.74
    1.28

    2.02
    (10.01)
    (5.78)

    2.32
    (0.39)

    9.83
    1.75
    2.71
    (8.95)
    (2.13)
    (0.24)

     
    Vote Cnt
    ( 3.0 ) %
    (85)

    (4.8)
    (3.9)
    (3.9)
    (5.5)
    (0.9)

    (3.3)
    (1.6)

    3.8
    (3.9)
    (4.7)

    (4.7)

    2.1
    (7.7)
    (1.6)
    (1.6)

    (4.8)
    (2.3)
    (2.7)
    (6.4)
    (4.1)


    0.2
    (8.2)
    (2.5)
    (3.4)
    (7.1)

    (2.7)
    (2.3)
    (4.2)
    (2.1)
    (0.8)

    (2.5)
    (1.0)
    (1.0)
    (5.2)
    (6.6)

    (3.1)
    (1.5)
    (2.6)
    (2.3)
    (2.0)

    (2.9)
    (7.7)
    (6.3)
    (1.4)
    (3.0)


    1.3
    (2.6)
    (1.6)
    (5.9)
    (4.5)
    (4.1)
     
       Final  Kerry  
    1.89 %
      30.1  

    (3.8)
    2.5
    (4.8)
    (3.9)

    2.7

    4.9
    2.3
    4.3
    1.8
    1.4

    1.5
    18.5
    (2.3)
    2.6
    7.4

    2.5
    3.2
    2.3
    (6.0)
    (4.1)


    3.8
    (11.8)
    4.6
    1.4
    (0.9)

    4.2
    6.2
    4.0
    2.1
    4.1

    0.4
    3.9
    7.0
    1.8
    9.7

    (0.3)
    (1.1)

    3.3
    3.5
    (1.0)

    (0.3)
    (3.9)
    (7.9)

    4.6
    3.6

    2.2
    5.5
    0.4
    5.3
    4.7
    6.5
     
    Obama
    11
    120

    AL
    AK
    AZ
    AR
    CA

    CO*
    CT
    DC
    DE
    FL*

    GA
    HI
    ID
    IL
    IN

    IA*
    KS
    KY
    LA
    ME

    MD
    MA
    MI
    MN
    MS

    MO*
    MT
    NE
    NV*
    NH

    NJ
    NM*
    NY
    NC*
    ND*

    OH*
    OK
    OR
    PA
    RI

    SC
    SD
    TN
    TX
    UT

    VT
    VA*
    WA
    WV*
    WI
    WY

    Polling data source:
    Electoral-vote.com
    RealClearPolitics.com

    Election Model Calculations

    The projected vote share is equal to the latest poll plus the undecided voter allocation.


    V(i)  =  Poll(i) + UVA(i)


    The probability P(i) of winning state (i) is based on the projected state vote share V(i).

    It is calculated using the Excel Normal distribution function, assuming a 4.0% MoE for a typical 600-sample poll:


    P(i)  =  NORMDIST ( V(i),  0.5,  .04/1.96,  true )


    The expected state electoral vote is the product of the win probability and electoral vote.

    The total expected EV is given by the summation formula:


    EV  =  Σ P(i) * EV(i),   where i = 1,51


    The Electoral Vote Win probability is based on a 5000 election-trial Monte Carlo Simulation.

    The EV win probability is the number of winning election trials/5000.


    Why Election Model Projections Differ from the Media, Academia and the Bloggers

    There are a variety of election forecasting models used in academia, the media and internet election sites. The corporate MSM (CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBS, etc.) sponsors national polls to track the horserace and state polls to calculate the electoral vote.

    The EM uses Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Monte Carlo is widely used to analyze diverse risk-based models, when an analytical solution is impractical or impossible. The EM is updated weekly based on the latest state and national polls. The model projects the popular and electoral vote, assuming both clean and fraudulent election scenarios. The EM allocates the electoral vote based on the state win probability in calculating a more realistic total Expected EV.

    Corporate MSM pollsters and media pundits use state and national polling data. Electoral vote projections are misleading, since they are calculated based on the latest state polls regardless of the spread; the state poll leader gets all of its electoral votes. This is statistically incorrect; they do not consider state win probabilities. And there is no adjustment for the allocation of undecided voters.

    For example, assume that McCain leads by 51.049.0% in each of five states with a total of 100 electoral votes. Most models would assign the 100 EV to McCain. But Obama could easily win one or more of the states, since his win probability is 31%. The 2008 Election Model would allocate 31% of 100 EV to Obama and 69% of 100 EV to McCain.

    (more re '...Academia and the Bloggers')

    Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV

    Most national and state polls are sponsored by the corporate MSM. Gallup, Rasmussen and other national polls recently increased the Republican Party ID percentage weighting. This had the immediate effect of boosting McCains poll numbers. But there are 11 million more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. USA Today/Gallup changed the poll method from RV to LV right after the Republican convention. Party-ID weights were manipulated to favor McCain as well.

    (more on 'Fixing the Polls...')


    The Great Election Fraud Lockdown: Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Votes

    Professional statistical organizations, media pundits and election forecasters who projected a Bush victory never discuss Election Fraud. On the contrary, a complicit media has been in a permanent election fraud lockdown, as it relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won BOTH elections. They want you to believe that Democrats always do better in the exit polls, because Republican voters are reluctant responders. But they never consider other, more plausible explanations such as uncounted votes and stuffed ballots. Millions of mostly Democratic ballots are uncounted, spoiled and stuffed in every election and favored a Bush I and II in 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004. That's why the Democratic True vote (and exit poll share) is always greater than the Recorded vote. Read more here.

    In most states, total votes cast exceeded votes recorded (uncounted ballots exceeded stuffed). In Florida, Ohio and 10 other states, total votes recorded exceeded votes cast (ballot stuffing exceeded uncounted ballots).

    The majority (70-80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts. According to the 2000 Vote Census, 5.4 million of 110.8m total votes cast (4.9%) were uncounted (approximately 4.0m were Gore votes).

    In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 6259m with 286 EV. But 3.4m of 125.7 million total votes cast were uncounted (2.7%) and 2.5m were for Kerry. If they were counted, the recorded Bush 3.0m margin is cut in half, 62.9 - 61.5m. And that's before vote rigging.

    (more)

    Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote and Win Probability

    (See here)
     

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