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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 02:40 PM
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Edited on Fri Sep-19-08 03:28 PM by tiptoe

Election Model Trend: Obama vs. Kerry

September 19, 2008

In Sept. 2004, John Kerrys poll numbers and projected vote share declined sharply right after the Republican Convention. This year was no different: Obamas 4% national poll lead evaporated to a 2% deficit. But like Kerry, Obamas poll numbers quickly rebounded.

This post compares the 2008 Election Model* polling and projection trend to the 2004 Election Model. The state polling data source was for both.

The only assumption was that Kerry and Obama would each capture 60% (UVA) of the undecided vote. This was changed to 75% in the final Nov.1, 2004 projection in order to coincide with pollsters Zogby, Harris (75%) and Gallup (90%).

As of Sept. 17, the Election Model (60% UVA) projected:
2004: Kerry to win 49.5% of the 2-party vote and 247 EV.
2008: Obama to win 51.4% and 319 EV.

The 2004 Final Election Model (75% UVA) projected Kerry to win 51.8% with 337 EV.
As of Sept. 17, Obama is projected to win 52.7% and 348 EV (assuming 75% UVA).

View the 2-party popular and electoral vote share trends:
2004 Election Model Timeline
2004 Monthly National Polling Trend
2008 National Polling Trend
2008 Election Model Trend

The unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (over 70,000 respondents) indicated that Kerry won the two-party vote by 52.547.5% with 337 EV. But it should be obvious by now that Bush stole the 2004 election. His two-party recorded vote mandate was 51.348.7% (6259m) with 286 EV.

Forewarned is forearmed. It could very well happen again.

*alternative version


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  - THANK YOU!  Debi   Sep-19-08 02:46 PM   #1 
  - But, Kerry doesn't have the enthusiasm nor the extra 11 million new registrants  Liberal_Stalwart71   Sep-19-08 02:49 PM   #2 
  - Kerry had enthusiasm from the good government, anti-corruption wing of the Dem party.  blm   Sep-19-08 02:53 PM   #6 
  - People don't want to hear that part. It's fine to blame only Kerry I guess  politicasista   Sep-19-08 04:02 PM   #30 
  - Okay.....thanks, I feel much better now.  Debi   Sep-19-08 02:56 PM   #10 
  - Don't be a jerk. The context and conditions surrounding this election are not the same as in 2004.  Liberal_Stalwart71   Sep-19-08 03:13 PM   #21 
  - You go ahead and call Iowa in the bag b/c Obama is ahead 5 weeks out.  Debi   Sep-20-08 10:28 AM   #61 
  - What a better World there would be if  ukfordems   Sep-22-08 11:22 AM   #73 
  - So you'd rather wring your hands and cry that the sky is falling?  Elrond Hubbard   Sep-19-08 03:14 PM   #23 
     - No...but I'm not going to jump up and down and claim victory either, are you? n/t  Debi   Sep-20-08 10:29 AM   #62 
  - yep.  knixphan   Sep-19-08 03:07 PM   #17 
  - Iowa was another state that I'm certain was stolen, along with NC and New Mexico, though  blm   Sep-19-08 02:50 PM   #3 
  - New Mexico was no doubt stolen  mvd   Sep-19-08 02:52 PM   #5 
  - Hopefully, that is where the bigger Dem muscles cultivated by the 50 state strategy will come in to  blm   Sep-19-08 02:56 PM   #9 
     - Great news  mvd   Sep-19-08 02:58 PM   #11 
  - I disagree... I think Iowa was lost because the Kerry team decided they had it in the bag  Debi   Sep-19-08 02:59 PM   #12 
  - Hey Debi Downer, Kerry didn't have the money to compete in Iowa til the end  BluegrassDem   Sep-19-08 03:02 PM   #14 
     - Yes - and the Dem PARTY was not prepared to spend money in those states as it had a very DC centric  blm   Sep-19-08 03:08 PM   #18 
     - BINGO!! There was no 50-state strategy; Kerry didn't have the money or the support  Liberal_Stalwart71   Sep-19-08 03:16 PM   #25 
        - They had zero party support  politicasista   Sep-19-08 04:15 PM   #32 
        - EXACTLY!!!!!!  Liberal_Stalwart71   Sep-19-08 10:06 PM   #56 
           - Yes n/t  politicasista   Sep-19-08 11:10 PM   #57 
        - Kerry actually had a huge black turn out.  karynnj   Sep-21-08 06:31 PM   #65 
     - And that's why Obama is listening and learning from  politicasista   Sep-19-08 04:43 PM   #38 
     - Kerry Had Money in the Bank at the End  AndyTiedye   Sep-19-08 05:12 PM   #39 
     - Couldn't be legally spent. That was leftover primary money that wasn't allowed for general  blm   Sep-19-08 06:12 PM   #47 
     - From his primary account?  sniffa   Sep-19-08 06:19 PM   #50 
     - Andy, I now that I have posted this before to you  karynnj   Sep-21-08 06:33 PM   #66 
     - Yes he did.  Debi   Sep-20-08 10:27 AM   #60 
  - Yes, I've often thought the same.  Doodler71   Sep-19-08 04:03 PM   #31 
  - WTF is wrong with you?  elkston   Sep-19-08 03:14 PM   #22 
     - Exactly, thank you! n/t  melody   Sep-19-08 04:21 PM   #33 
     - hahahaha  Debi   Sep-20-08 10:23 AM   #59 
  - No we have to be relentless, clear eyed, and move witrh purpose  TheKentuckian   Sep-19-08 02:51 PM   #4 
  - Optimism is good, but blind optimism is foolish!  southpaw   Sep-19-08 02:54 PM   #7 
  - Yes, no way we can let up  mvd   Sep-19-08 02:55 PM   #8 
  - IMO, we better be ready to fight the day after as well.  southpaw   Sep-19-08 03:00 PM   #13 
     - Word, southpaw....Better we stop it in advance, but....  NYC_SKP   Sep-19-08 03:03 PM   #15 
        - Yeah, SKP  southpaw   Sep-19-08 03:06 PM   #16 
  - yes, we should not get complacent  amborin   Sep-19-08 03:13 PM   #20 
  - i thought Kerry ran  amborin   Sep-19-08 03:12 PM   #19 
  - agree  iiibbb   Sep-19-08 03:15 PM   #24 
  - Given Bush's horrible record that the bigname Dems were all on TV supporting and defending in 2003-4  blm   Sep-19-08 03:32 PM   #26 
  - Watch any Kerry speech... he uses 40 words where 5 will do.  iiibbb   Sep-19-08 03:55 PM   #28 
  - Really? So bigname Democrats like Bill Clinton DIDN'T consistently support and DEFEND Bush  blm   Sep-19-08 06:15 PM   #48 
  - Not to mention as he is speaking of speeches  karynnj   Sep-21-08 06:52 PM   #69 
  - It WASN'T close: It was a LANDSLIDE for Kerry:  tiptoe   Sep-20-08 12:44 AM   #58 
  - The NYT labeled Kerry's 2008 convention speech  karynnj   Sep-21-08 06:49 PM   #68 
  - Nah, it was horrible, he was boring, but got more votes  politicasista   Sep-19-08 05:14 PM   #40 
  - not at all  amborin   Sep-22-08 10:45 AM   #72 
     - why, when Bill Clinton supported Bush on terrorism and Iraq war and did so throughout  blm   Sep-22-08 01:27 PM   #74 
  - If 2004 Was Not Stolen, What Caused the Red Shift?  AndyTiedye   Sep-19-08 05:16 PM   #41 
  - "all the polls"?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-19-08 07:26 PM   #55 
  - There were actually very few real blunders  karynnj   Sep-21-08 06:40 PM   #67 
  - Bush used E-vote fraud in Texas to pad his vote total too.  McCamy Taylor   Sep-19-08 03:41 PM   #27 
  - Absolutely....and even in California. The PERCENT of their 'win' never changed  blm   Sep-19-08 06:17 PM   #49 
  - Thanks! I've been looking for this information  Doodler71   Sep-19-08 04:02 PM   #29 
  - Recommend the thread will do as thanks.  tiptoe   Sep-19-08 05:40 PM   #45 
  - thanks! nt  tiptoe   Sep-20-08 01:13 PM   #63 
  - I like John Kerry and he was the one that got us talking about smart vs having a beer with  Jennicut   Sep-19-08 04:28 PM   #34 
  - Obama may only be marginally exceeding Kerry, but the improvement is all over the map. We must keep  Stop Cornyn   Sep-19-08 04:32 PM   #35 
  - We're in a far better situation than last time  melody   Sep-19-08 04:37 PM   #36 
  - k!  tiptoe   Sep-21-08 06:14 PM   #64 
  - Right. Keep on working.  LiberalAndProud   Sep-19-08 04:38 PM   #37 
  - Bush won by a very small margin? Try the 'DU-Game' & show ONE PLAUSIBLE scenario for * 3M vote win:  tiptoe   Sep-19-08 05:32 PM   #43 
     - I know. Bush was never elected.  LiberalAndProud   Sep-19-08 05:48 PM   #46 
     - hahahaha  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-19-08 07:24 PM   #54 
  - Something else to keep in mind  SheilaT   Sep-19-08 05:24 PM   #42 
  - Hey, what happened to TruthIsAll?  kath   Sep-19-08 05:38 PM   #44 
  - if i tell ya  tiptoe   Sep-19-08 06:20 PM   #51 
  - Kerry didn't fight when the republicans rigged the voting machines  crazy_vanilla   Sep-19-08 06:27 PM   #52 
  - Someone had to fight BEFORE the election  karynnj   Sep-21-08 06:59 PM   #70 
     - kick  tiptoe   Sep-22-08 10:16 AM   #71 
  - k&r n/t  tiptoe   Sep-19-08 06:37 PM   #53 

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