You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

ELECTION MODEL (TIA) : OBAMA'S TREND ONLY MARGINALLY EXCEEDS KERRY, SO... [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 02:40 PM
Original message
ELECTION MODEL (TIA) : OBAMA'S TREND ONLY MARGINALLY EXCEEDS KERRY, SO...
Advertisements [?]
Edited on Fri Sep-19-08 03:28 PM by tiptoe


Election Model Trend: Obama vs. Kerry
TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ExposingElection...

September 19, 2008

In Sept. 2004, John Kerrys poll numbers and projected vote share declined sharply right after the Republican Convention. This year was no different: Obamas 4% national poll lead evaporated to a 2% deficit. But like Kerry, Obamas poll numbers quickly rebounded.

This post compares the 2008 Election Model* polling and projection trend to the 2004 Election Model. The state polling data source was electoral-vote.com for both.

The only assumption was that Kerry and Obama would each capture 60% (UVA) of the undecided vote. This was changed to 75% in the final Nov.1, 2004 projection in order to coincide with pollsters Zogby, Harris (75%) and Gallup (90%).

As of Sept. 17, the Election Model (60% UVA) projected:
2004: Kerry to win 49.5% of the 2-party vote and 247 EV.
2008: Obama to win 51.4% and 319 EV.

The 2004 Final Election Model (75% UVA) projected Kerry to win 51.8% with 337 EV.
As of Sept. 17, Obama is projected to win 52.7% and 348 EV (assuming 75% UVA).

View the 2-party popular and electoral vote share trends:
2004 Election Model Timeline
2004 Monthly National Polling Trend
2008 National Polling Trend
2008 Election Model Trend

The unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (over 70,000 respondents) indicated that Kerry won the two-party vote by 52.547.5% with 337 EV. But it should be obvious by now that Bush stole the 2004 election. His two-party recorded vote mandate was 51.348.7% (6259m) with 286 EV.

Forewarned is forearmed. It could very well happen again.




*alternative version




 


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC