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Reply #18: TIA's 9/12 EM averages 15 most recent Registered- & Likely-Voter Polls, and the difference is clear: [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-08 07:03 PM
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18. TIA's 9/12 EM averages 15 most recent Registered- & Likely-Voter Polls, and the difference is clear:
Edited on Mon Sep-15-08 07:15 PM by tiptoe

See 9/12 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 293 EV; WHY MSM POLLSTERS "ADJUST" PRE-ELECTION & FINAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS

The National Model at the top lists the 15 most recent Polls, including both USA/Gallup polls mentioned by Prosense that show the sampling change from RV (pre RNConvention) to LV (post RNConvention) to maximize the McCain "bounce". Poll results changed from Obama 5043% to McCain 54-44%, respectively.

At the bottom of Polls list is a comparison:

Registered V
vs Likely V
Poll Averages

Note these are Pre- and Post-RNConvention polls, with the latter presumably reflective of McCains greatest convention bounce and apparently urged to that effect by a deliberate choice by Gallup and USA Todayto release a poll [LV] that would maximize the impression of McCain's bounce and help shape the campaign narrative in favor of McCain-Palin's favor.

Other includes Undecided Voters
RV includes Newly-Registered voters


TIA adds:
There is also a distinction between Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) Polls. The Democrats always do better in RV polls. The reason: Newly registered voters have been mostly Democratic since 1988. Since then, Democratic presidential candidates have won new voters by an average 14% margin.

The dead heat claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media is a canard unless they are factoring fraud into their models and not telling us. The media desperately wants a horserace, and so they fail to adjust the polls for undecided and newly registered voters.



For projection purposes (given fraud-free elections held today), TIAs base case scenario assumes a 60%40% split of Undecided Voters favoring Obama (Kerrys base case split was 75%-25%).

TIA provides Sensitivity Analysis, covering five Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) scenarios (40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80%).
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