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Reply #18: TIA's 9/12 EM averages 15 most recent Registered- & Likely-Voter Polls, and the difference is clear: [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-08 06:03 PM
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18. TIA's 9/12 EM averages 15 most recent Registered- & Likely-Voter Polls, and the difference is clear:
Edited on Mon Sep-15-08 06:15 PM by tiptoe


The National Model at the top lists the 15 most recent Polls, including both USA/Gallup polls mentioned by Prosense that show the sampling change from RV (pre RNConvention) to LV (post RNConvention) to maximize the McCain "bounce". Poll results changed from Obama 5043% to McCain 54-44%, respectively.

At the bottom of Polls list is a comparison:

Registered V
vs Likely V
Poll Averages

Note these are Pre- and Post-RNConvention polls, with the latter presumably reflective of McCains greatest convention bounce and apparently urged to that effect by a deliberate choice by Gallup and USA Todayto release a poll [LV] that would maximize the impression of McCain's bounce and help shape the campaign narrative in favor of McCain-Palin's favor.

Other includes Undecided Voters
RV includes Newly-Registered voters

TIA adds:
There is also a distinction between Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) Polls. The Democrats always do better in RV polls. The reason: Newly registered voters have been mostly Democratic since 1988. Since then, Democratic presidential candidates have won new voters by an average 14% margin.

The dead heat claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media is a canard unless they are factoring fraud into their models and not telling us. The media desperately wants a horserace, and so they fail to adjust the polls for undecided and newly registered voters.

For projection purposes (given fraud-free elections held today), TIAs base case scenario assumes a 60%40% split of Undecided Voters favoring Obama (Kerrys base case split was 75%-25%).

TIA provides Sensitivity Analysis, covering five Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) scenarios (40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80%).
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  -Gallup admits: it only releases likely voter results when they favor McCain! ProSense  Sep-15-08 01:05 PM   #0 
  - (bump) In what respect, Cherlee?  doctors4bob   Sep-15-08 01:09 PM   #1 
  - John McCain Lie Counter Web Page  chicagoexpat   Sep-15-08 01:19 PM   #2 
  - Funny thing is I mentioned that the polls were not trustworthy in a poll a few days ago  MagickMuffin   Sep-15-08 01:28 PM   #3 
  - Well you were right. But the doctoring of the polls have been mentioned before. n/t  vaberella   Sep-15-08 01:47 PM   #6 
  - Not to mention polls this far out from Nov...  mojowork_n   Sep-15-08 01:53 PM   #10 
     - Horse-race journalism is exactly what we're dealing with here  MagickMuffin   Sep-15-08 03:28 PM   #15 
  - If the polls are biased  MathGuy   Sep-15-08 01:45 PM   #4 
  - No, I respectfully disagree. Fudging the poll numbers is also  mojowork_n   Sep-15-08 02:00 PM   #12 
  - Oops, double post. Deleting the second. n/t  mojowork_n   Sep-15-08 02:00 PM   #13 
  - No, it is just the opposite  dansolo   Sep-15-08 06:13 PM   #20 
  - Gallup is afflicted with the disease that is destroying this country.  The Backlash Cometh   Sep-15-08 01:47 PM   #5 
  - Yeah, it's called  ProSense   Sep-15-08 05:47 PM   #16 
  - They're trying to inflat mccain to deflat the enthusiasm of us  EC   Sep-15-08 01:49 PM   #7 
  - Yep, and RASMUSSEN is a RW fundie.  EnviroBat   Sep-15-08 01:50 PM   #8 
  - "likely voters were decidedly more Republican"  walldude   Sep-15-08 01:53 PM   #9 
  - In a change election there's NO WAY they should be counting on LV as a static or near static...  uponit7771   Sep-15-08 01:55 PM   #11 
  - What about voters that can see Russia from their houses??? n/t  beac   Sep-15-08 02:15 PM   #14 
  - Kick because maybe it will calm people down.  Kdillard   Sep-15-08 05:51 PM   #17 
  - TIA's 9/12 EM averages 15 most recent Registered- & Likely-Voter Polls, and the difference is clear:  tiptoe   Sep-15-08 06:03 PM   #18 
  - Gallup has always been a RW org.. as is Insider/Advantage and Hotline.  progressivebydesign   Sep-15-08 06:09 PM   #19 
  - K & R !  tiptoe   Sep-15-08 06:16 PM   #21 
  - Gallup's "Likely Voters" Poll: A Snapshot Or A Hypothesis? (Huffington Post)  mcg   Sep-16-08 11:38 AM   #22 
  - K&R -- more evidence on the table of bias in some major polls. //eom  Overseas   Sep-16-08 11:41 AM   #23 
  - Gallup: "Who Are Likely Voters and When Do They Matter?"  mcg   Sep-16-08 11:58 AM   #24 

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