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Reply #26: OK, look at this. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
FatDave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-04-08 02:02 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. OK, look at this.
This is the big map you can see on pollster.com right now (only it's interactive there).



The states in blue or red are as close to sure things as we can get at this point. Obama's up by at least 5 points in the states marked blue. Most are states Kerry won in 2004, and odds are extremely good that he's going to win all the Kerry states (with an unlikely exception of NH) plus IA, and NM. That puts him at 264 electoral votes, just 6 votes shy of the 270.

He only needs 6 points. How can he get 6 points? A lot of ways. Ohio would give him 20. Instant win from Ohio. Virginia has 13, another instant win. Not likely you say? The demographics of VA are changing. The northern areas around DC are growing and offsetting the southern rural areas. Macaca comments aside, VA sent Jim Webb to the senate in 2006 instead of favorite son George Allen. CO has 9 electoral votes, that's another win. Nevada only has 5 EV's, so that won't quite get him there. FL, unlikely though it may be, would also win it for Obama.

As I said earlier, there's really six states up for grabs this time around. FL, VA, OH, MO, CO, and NV. Maybe 7 if you count NH, but seriously McCain has no chance in NH. Bush won NH by 1% in 2000, otherwise it's been solidly blue for a long, long time. So of those 6, Obama needs, worst case, any 2 of them. 5 of them (OH, CO, FL, VA, MO) represent an instant win when added to Kerry states + IA and NM.

But for McCain to win the election, he needs to pick up all six of those states. All of them. Go to http://www.270towin.com / and play through different scenarios. Start by marking all the Kerry '04 states blue. Add in IA and NM, which are almost assuredly going to give their votes to Barack. That puts him at 264 electoral votes. Now give everything but Nevada to McCain. I pick Nevada because at 5 EV's, it's the smallest reward of the swing states. That puts McCain at 269 electoral votes. Still not a victory. It could come down to Nevada! Not bloody likely, but possible.

I'm going to repeat this to drive it home. If Obama can win all the Kerry states (and why would he not?) plus IA and NM (polling very strongly in both) then McCain can win OH, FL, VA, MO, and CO and still not have 270 electoral votes. Of the six tossup states, Obama needs at most two of them. McCain needs all six.

Of course, this all depends on no huge game changing events happening in the next 2 months. We go to war with Iran or Naked lesbian action shots of Palin turn up (and at this rate I wouldn't be too surprised) and all bets are off.
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