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Reply #18: Poll Reflects That Obama Gets Destroyed In Alabama, But ,.. [View All]

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Median Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-20-08 01:42 PM
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18. Poll Reflects That Obama Gets Destroyed In Alabama, But ,..
Whether McCain wins Alabama by 1 point or 20 points, the result is the same, 9 electoral votes.

Here is a far better website to review, which incorporates gallup and rasmussen, but more importantly examines the electoral votes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_m... /

The fact of the matter is that there are some states that are solidly red such as Kentucky and Alabama. These states will skew heavily in favor of the GOP, perhaps by 20 points. This McCain lead may grow, because it is a waste of money to campaign in these states because they are solidly red. So, the popular vote will be close in this election due to these dynamics. Yet, we do not elect Presidents based on the popular vote. Its winner take all. So, while the national polls are interesting, the real key is what states are in play. And, with Obama, a lot more states in the South are actually in play even more so then when John Edwards was on Kerry's ticket.

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  -Latest Rasmussen And Gallup Poll Hope And Change  Jul-20-08 12:49 PM   #0 
  - too close for my comfort!!! nt  patrice   Jul-20-08 12:51 PM   #1 
  - Don't both these polls use old voter roles for their calling pools??  polichick   Jul-20-08 12:51 PM   #2 
  - I am appalled that it is even that close. How could that many people who are against  BrklynLiberal   Jul-20-08 12:52 PM   #3 
  - Is Obama that different?  wpelb   Jul-20-08 12:59 PM   #5 
  - You seem concerned. nt  thecatburgler   Jul-20-08 01:16 PM   #10 
  - It's a phenomenon. The scare tactics have been effective.  faygokid   Jul-20-08 12:59 PM   #6 
  - McGramps is still generally topping out around 42%  Hippo_Tron   Jul-20-08 01:55 PM   #24 
  - unfreakingbelievable!  mucifer   Jul-20-08 12:52 PM   #4 
  - There's a lot of racial hatred being stoked especially in the southern states  cbc5g   Jul-20-08 01:01 PM   #7 
  - I'm still surprised that some people think John McCain can pass for White.  IanDB1   Jul-20-08 01:22 PM   #12 
  - I don't trust any polls.  kokono   Jul-20-08 01:03 PM   #8 
  - Racism is NOT dead  World Citizen   Jul-20-08 01:04 PM   #9 
  - We need at LEAST an 11% lead to make up for election fraud and voter suppression. n/t  IanDB1   Jul-20-08 01:21 PM   #11 
  - Not really, we control most of the state governments now  Hippo_Tron   Jul-20-08 01:56 PM   #26 
     - Isn't Blackwell still in charge of Ohio? n/t  IanDB1   Jul-20-08 07:04 PM   #33 
        - NO... thank God.  CitizenLeft   Jul-20-08 10:15 PM   #39 
  - You need to look at their poll samples and if they are consistent  Ichingcarpenter   Jul-20-08 01:24 PM   #13 
  - These polls are for psychological consumption...  kentuck   Jul-20-08 01:29 PM   #14 
  - Relax.  jobycom   Jul-20-08 01:29 PM   #15 
  - And the state by state polls are more important, anyway.  CTyankee   Jul-20-08 01:44 PM   #19 
     - True, but they are also the least accurate.  jobycom   Jul-20-08 01:55 PM   #23 
        - Why do you say that?  CTyankee   Jul-20-08 03:16 PM   #29 
           - State polls are blatantly more inaccurate  Awsi Dooger   Jul-20-08 05:08 PM   #31 
              - But national polls use numbers from states that have a lot of voters  CTyankee   Jul-20-08 07:10 PM   #34 
  - The Bradley Effect suggest that Obama will have SHOCKING loss if nums remain the same  Sensitivity   Jul-20-08 01:30 PM   #16 
  - Cell phones are excluded from polling phone number lists  flamingdem   Jul-20-08 01:37 PM   #17 
     - Cell phones are NEVER incuded in these polls -- JUST AS IN THE PRIMARIES. The sample is WEIGHTED to  Sensitivity   Jul-20-08 01:57 PM   #27 
  - Poll Reflects That Obama Gets Destroyed In Alabama, But ,..  Median Democrat   Jul-20-08 01:42 PM   #18 
  - I agree re focus on states. But BE also applies at the state level and it is not being tracked.  Sensitivity   Jul-20-08 01:46 PM   #20 
     - So, National Polls Are More Important Than State By State?  Median Democrat   Jul-20-08 01:53 PM   #21 
     - I AGREE WITH YOU. I posted re cells in wrong place. But still have to watch for BE  Sensitivity   Jul-20-08 02:06 PM   #28 
        - But does BE count in polls where people are anonymous?  CTyankee   Jul-20-08 03:23 PM   #30 
     - I don't think the Bradley Effect is as pronounced as that....  Franks Wild Years   Jul-20-08 05:36 PM   #32 
     - The BE scares the shit out of me. That's the only reason I was a HRC supporter  Fluffdaddy   Jul-20-08 07:27 PM   #36 
        - Seriously...  Franks Wild Years   Jul-20-08 07:55 PM   #37 
           - I really hope you are right. I will not survive another 4 years of gop rule  Fluffdaddy   Jul-20-08 08:03 PM   #38 
  - Fisa effect?  redsoxrudy   Jul-20-08 01:54 PM   #22 
  - Yup, FISA Really Has Folks In Alabama and Kentucky All Worked Up  Median Democrat   Jul-20-08 01:56 PM   #25 
  - Wake me in October when polls means something  Fluffdaddy   Jul-20-08 07:14 PM   #35 
 

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