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My Political Science Professor's Primary Predictions [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
aldian159 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-05-04 02:12 AM
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My Political Science Professor's Primary Predictions
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My professor is a moderate Democrat from Texas, very much in the mold of an LBJ. He is undecided as of now. He sent me an e-mail just now that I though was very intresting, so I'm gonna post it here in its complete form. Comments are welcome:

The campaign is not over. Howard Dean will either lose Iowa (14 days away) to Gephardt or win it by a miniscule margin. He will win New Hampshire (22 days away) but will win by a much smaller amount than expected. And remember, John McCain won New Hampshire by a lot. Fat lot of good it did him.
Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Carolina (29 days away). I know Dean is leading in Arizona and Oklahoma. Most people thought South Carolina would be the most important race in that crowd. Right now, the overall leader there is Jonathon Edwards. Second is Al Sharpton. In other words, South Carolina is a moot state now. After this race is when people are going to start dropping out. Say goodbye to Kucinich, Mosley-Braun, Lieberman, and big Al.
That leaves Dean, Kerry, Clark, Edwards, and Gephardt.
Between Feb. 7th and Feb. 27th, eight states and the District of Columbia hold primaries. These are important. In 2000, John McCain's campaign lost it's soul in Michigan. They saw the state as a must-win, so they blew all their resources there, much like Gephardt's likely to do in Iowa. McCain carried Michigan on Feb. 7th, but it knocked him out of the race. I know Dean is leading in Wisconsin, but Wisconsin's so liberal it's basically Dean's base outside of Vermont. DC is moot because of the large black population that will pander to Sharpton, if hes still in.
So that leaves Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Virginia, Idaho, and Utah. The last two are what get called "vulture pickups" because only one guy's going to compete for them, and I doubt it will be Dean, as Utah is far too conservative and Idaho is far too libertarian. I think it will be Kerry who wins those two states. I also think Dean will win Maine and Washington.
I see Gephardt and Edwards fading before Super Tuesday (March 2nd) and dropping out. After Super Tuesday, Clark will be gone as well. Super Tuesday is everything it's cracked up to be. 12 states hold their primaries. Of these, four are in New England, but of those four, three are the home states for candidates. Kerry will win Massachusetts, Dean will win Vermont, and if Lieberman's still around, he'll pick up Connecticut. If Kerry has enough momentum, he will carry Rhode Island.
I also see Kerry winning New York; I can't see New Yorkers siding with Dean. I will give California to Dean, though; too many people in the San Francisco area who are Dean's kind of liberals. Also going to Dean will be Hawaii and Minnesota. However, I think Ohio, Maryland, and Georgia will be very iffy. AFSCME might tilt Maryland to Dean, but I doubt Georgia will go for him despite the large gun lobby there. Ohio's up for grabs.
After Super Tuesday, it's going to be Dean and Kerry. Kerry will be much stronger than he is right now. From March 2nd to the convention, there are 18 states holding primaries (plus Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico). Howard Dean and John Kerry are going to engage in the biggest brawl you can imagine before the convention, assuming one or the other hasn't dropped out (safe to say).
This isn't going to be a game where everyone goes home after New Hampshire. It's going to be a long, drawn-out campaign. Gore's campaign against Bradley in 2000 was a quick and sharp action because the party lined-up behind Gore. Bush had to fight to beat McCain, but not that hard, and he was helped by some mistakes McCain made (something I see Dean doing more of). Its gonna be fun.
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