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Reply #26: Poblano - The only reason that I read Daily Kos [View All]

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 09:33 AM
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26. Poblano - The only reason that I read Daily Kos


I don't spend much time at DailyKos - I find it confusing to manuever. There is one guy that I have earmarked and that is Poblano



Look at his work on SuperTuesday http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/...


Now look at this article from Chicago 1993 outlining how Obama changes political landscapes with voter registration drives: http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-1993... /


In my opinion if you want to know what the real liklihood of what the scenarios are this fall use the Poblano model.


This is so far IMHO the most important post about the GE posted to date.


Please rec this OP. Thanks Cary
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  -The Poblano Effect: Obama Could Score Huge Electoral Victory Over McCain Hissyspit  May-17-08 04:42 AM   #0 
  - yeah, here is a NY Times article that augments the OP  Wetzelbill   May-17-08 04:46 AM   #1 
  - Yea Wetzelbill looks like Obama's energizing the black vote will help you in November  Hippo_Tron   May-17-08 04:53 AM   #3 
     - I think so, those voters have been breaking my way  Wetzelbill   May-17-08 05:06 AM   #8 
  - Not only that...the GOP's conservative base wants to lose  anigbrowl   May-17-08 04:48 AM   #2 
  - What complete garbage  sandnsea   May-17-08 04:54 AM   #4 
  - This is why the Clinton campaign is in shatters  grantcart   May-17-08 09:41 AM   #27 
  - Bulletin: Hillary WOULD lose Washington...  regnaD kciN   May-17-08 06:45 PM   #51 
  - Oh god, I hate her, and no she would not  sandnsea   May-17-08 07:59 PM   #55 
     - This Oregonian agrees with sandnsea  mcking   May-18-08 01:27 AM   #57 
  - Oregon and Washington have a huge indie/hippie scene...  crimsonblue   May-17-08 07:54 PM   #53 
  - I predict a landslide for Obama in November.  Alexander   May-17-08 04:55 AM   #5 
  - turnout will be big  Wetzelbill   May-17-08 05:04 AM   #6 
  - Dems & indies have turned out in huge numbers in the past 4 elections, but the machines  loudsue   May-19-08 02:00 PM   #62 
  - Yup, agree....but I been wrong in the past....  opihimoimoi   May-17-08 05:06 AM   #7 
  - I've been "feeling" this all along and can't understand the dire predictions or polls. It will be a  K Gardner   May-17-08 08:50 AM   #23 
  - I don't think 2008 will be the mirror image of 1984's Mondale-Reagan debacle, but close: a veritable  Stop Cornyn   May-17-08 02:13 PM   #43 
  - Rec'd! I wouldn't be surprised, and am forever hopeful! nt  babylonsister   May-17-08 05:19 AM   #9 
  - I would be.  Zachstar   May-17-08 06:12 AM   #13 
     - I hate to disagree with you Zachstar.....I don't want it close at all  a kennedy   May-17-08 06:57 AM   #15 
        - Well hopefully it will not be close.  Zachstar   May-17-08 09:19 AM   #25 
  - If McCain continues to not distance himself from Bush... Obama will win in a landslide.  Zachstar   May-17-08 05:39 AM   #10 
  - those are very large numbers  rove karl rove   May-17-08 05:44 AM   #11 
  - Indiana was 50-50  Hola   May-17-08 05:47 AM   #12 
  - And then.... there's the real world!  Henny Penny   May-17-08 06:51 AM   #14 
  - And no one has been better at predicting real world outcomes than Poblano  grantcart   May-17-08 09:43 AM   #28 
  - I love Poblano  sonias   May-17-08 07:27 AM   #16 
  - I've been following the Poblano stats...  noel711   May-17-08 07:32 AM   #17 
  - I'm very intrigued by this! When a statistician is able to project closely ...  phrigndumass   May-17-08 08:32 AM   #18 
  - He is the only one I read at DailyKos look at is work on SuperTuesday  grantcart   May-17-08 09:45 AM   #29 
     - Wow, how could I have missed his diary? And that's from January.  phrigndumass   May-17-08 10:20 AM   #31 
  - It's so exciting to consider a massive voter turn out.  myrna minx   May-17-08 08:34 AM   #19 
  - IMHO the past couple of weeks the bloviators and Clinton  RamboLiberal   May-17-08 08:42 AM   #20 
  - Now that OH has a Dem SoS we can count on our urban cities resisting GOP AA suppression tactics  rosebud57   May-17-08 08:49 AM   #22 
  - There is a huge potential to increase African American turnout that is currently  rosebud57   May-17-08 08:46 AM   #21 
  - 2004. That was the year Geirge Bush lost  MediaBabe   May-17-08 01:32 PM   #38 
     - That was also the year we had a bore for the nominee, Kerry, nobody was feeling  rosebud57   May-17-08 01:58 PM   #39 
  - This illustrates the flaw with the DLC approach  dansolo   May-17-08 08:59 AM   #24 
  - Poblano - The only reason that I read Daily Kos  grantcart   May-17-08 09:33 AM   #26 
  - Viva Poblano!  Katzenkavalier   May-17-08 09:53 AM   #30 
  - Fascinating reading  MindMatter   May-17-08 11:56 AM   #32 
  - ## DON'T DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##  DU GrovelBot   May-17-08 11:56 AM   #33 
  - I don't believe it. But I have heard conservatives mention losing this election cycle  ej510   May-17-08 12:15 PM   #34 
  - K&R  me b zola   May-17-08 12:29 PM   #35 
  - Thanks again Hissy  grantcart   May-17-08 12:31 PM   #36 
  - Poblano's fivethirtyeight.com is one of my favorites and I check it every day  featherman   May-17-08 01:00 PM   #37 
  - I'm always wary of modeling based on this sort of data  depakid   May-17-08 02:00 PM   #40 
  - The youth vote  MediaBabe   May-17-08 02:05 PM   #41 
  - You're 100% right.  hulklogan   May-17-08 02:08 PM   #42 
     - What Gov. Dean said  Donna Zen   May-17-08 02:36 PM   #44 
        - Okay. But where are the numbers?  MediaBabe   May-17-08 06:38 PM   #49 
           - Heh? Were you in Chicago?  Donna Zen   May-17-08 09:27 PM   #56 
  - his blog has been great this season  slinkerwink   May-17-08 02:38 PM   #45 
  - i am seriously bookmarking all these thread predicting a huge O victory, cuz you know that after O l  VotesForWomen   May-17-08 03:33 PM   #46 
  - Here's hoping. nt  onehandle   May-17-08 03:38 PM   #47 
  - The GOP vote is staying home in 08- It's purely psychological: They have to vote for the winner.  jazzjunkysue   May-17-08 05:42 PM   #48 
  - Nope. Republicans do not think that way.  MediaBabe   May-17-08 06:42 PM   #50 
  - Nobody's factoring in McCain's HUGE weakness  KSinTX   May-17-08 07:45 PM   #52 
  - This video might have something to do with it...  mcollier   May-18-08 09:08 PM   #60 
  - i was fiddling around with a map the other day...  Ysabel   May-17-08 07:54 PM   #54 
  - Poblano doesn't know what he's doing  Awsi Dooger   May-18-08 03:59 AM   #58 
  - The hole in this is the HIspanic vote  Gman   May-18-08 06:16 PM   #59 
  - Then you should have no trouble pointing out where in his model he left it out.  BlooInBloo   May-19-08 02:03 PM   #63 
  - The Poblano effect makes for some interesting strategies on both sides  ekwhite   May-18-08 09:26 PM   #61 
 

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