Predictions for North Carolina and Indiana - Obama on Top

[stevenleser]

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=7273
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May 6, 2008

By Steven Leser

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Obama is the big winner today in the North Carolina and Indiana Primaries. I predict that Hillary wins Indiana 53-47 and Obama wins North Carolina 55-45.

People are going to read the above and ask, "Isn't that a split? Why are you calling that a win?"

The answer is two-fold. First, Hillary needs around 68% of the vote in all remaining contests to catch Obama in the delegate count. Any result where Hillary fails to get 68% is a win for Obama. Not only doesnt she get 68%, but since Obama wins North Carolina, the last remaining big state by significant numbers, Hillary ends the day further behind in delegates than when the day began. She probably loses by at least the margin of delegates she gained from Pennsylvania.

Both camps suggested yesterday that the contest will continue to June 3rd but after today, the argument for Hillary to continue becomes significantly weaker.

Is there a possibility for an upset in either state? In North Carolina, the answer is no. The only question there is Obama's margin of victory. In Indiana, the margin of victory for Hillary could be very tight. A significant shift in turnout could swing the contest 5% in either direction, more than enough for Obama to eke out a small victory. If that happens, look for a Hillary concession tomorrow. I am not predicting that, but it could happen.