Reply #9: Right, Not Enough Undecided

[earthside]

This is such an atypical electorate. The nation really is fair evenly divided among the partisans. So in my estimation a 6 to 7 point lead this cycle is equivialnt to a 10 percent lead pre-2000.

The thing to watch for is moderate Republicans and 'Goldwater conservatives' (ie. social libertarians, fiscally responsible Republicans) beginning to leave the Bush camp, move into 'undecided', before the leap to Kerry. That could start happening after the Democratic Convention. If there are signs of that, then it is a blow-out for Kerry.

By the way, isn't it odd that just one month or so before his coronation, Bush, an incumbent, unchallenged pResident must shore up his base with appeals to gay bashing and other Christian fundamentalist culture issues? I think that is one sign of the trouble Rove must be finding in his own polls.