Reply #12: Yep.

[July]

Here's what I like about this guy's map. If his analysis of the polls is correct (big if, but his information seems to be up-to-date), Bush will need to win ALL of the "Solid Bush" states, ALL of the "Close Bush" states, and ALL of the "Really Close Bush" states, to get a total of 247 EVs, i.e., not enough to win. So, in addition to those, he has to get 23 more EVs from a state now leaning Kerry. Florida could do it, but that's only if he wins ALL of the others leaning for him, and among the Close and Really Close states are Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, and Nevada. If he loses one of those to Kerry, he doesn't have enough EVs. If he wins PA, he can lose OH, but he can't lose any of the others except Nevada (only 5 EVs, would put him at just enough). In other words, he's got a tough row to hoe, which is dandy with me.

Of course, things may change. So far, though, it's looking good.

(If I've made any mistakes, feel free to correct them.)