Reply #7: God bless Rev. Wright!!!!!!

[jackson_dem]

Great job doing that work, tipetoe. Here are some points you overlooked:

1) She needs 69% to get to 2,024. She needs less, probably around 62-63% to prevent Obama from getting 2,024 and taking this to the second ballot, where all bets are off because delegates are free to vote as they wish then. This is a scenario under which Gore could emerge.

2) She needs that percentage if FL and MI are seated. If they are the delegate gap closes, even if uncommitted is given to Obama, and the magic number becomes 2,208. She would need a lot smaller percentage of supers if FL or FL and MI get in.

3) She will likely enjoy a net delegate gain in the remaining primaries, chiefly due to blowouts in WV and KY.