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Obama's Projections Becomes Reality [View All]

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aaroh Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:07 AM
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Obama's Projections Becomes Reality
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Edited on Thu Apr-24-08 04:59 AM by aaroh
Remember a few months back an Obama projection spreadsheet was leaked to Bloomberg News showing their projections for each primary results. Well I looked at the actual results so far and compared it to the spreadsheet and guess what? Each prediction of a win or loss came true! Except for New Mexico where Hillary won by a narrow margin.

Actual Results: /

Take a look at the next 3 primaries (Guam,NC,Indiana), they have projected a clean sweep. The margin predictions have been close too. So if this spreadsheet is any indication of the upcoming contests, Obama is well on his way to take out Indiana too where Hillary is favored to win.

Full spreadsheet can be downloaded here:

They're doing better than expected:
Predicted pledged delegates gained (from Iowa to Pa): 1439
Actual pledged delegates gained (from Iowa to Pa) : 1494
underestimated by : 55
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  -Obama's Projections Becomes Reality aaroh  Apr-24-08 04:07 AM   #0 
  - Huge underestimation on Hawaii.  dkf   Apr-24-08 04:13 AM   #1 
  - They were being conservative  FrenchieCat   Apr-24-08 04:15 AM   #2 
     - they didn't project a virtually uncontested effort from Hillary after super Tuesday  aaroh   Apr-24-08 04:22 AM   #6 
  - Those were definitely conservative estimates in some states  davidpdx   Apr-24-08 04:20 AM   #3 
  - Given that they overestimated the popular vote in PA  dbmk   Apr-24-08 04:22 AM   #5 
     - Yes, I think so as well  davidpdx   Apr-24-08 04:43 AM   #7 
  - Hope they are right about Indiana and North Carolina too.  my3boyz   Apr-24-08 04:20 AM   #4 
  - he won Maine too.  johnnydrama   Apr-24-08 05:45 AM   #8 
  - Which is kind of funny because it was a blowout win for him... 63% of the vote  high density   Apr-24-08 05:34 PM   #11 
  - The totals look like Clinton will win  Bucky   Apr-24-08 07:13 AM   #9 
     - thats projections up to feb 5th  aaroh   Apr-24-08 05:28 PM   #10 

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