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Reply #42: So, with NC coming up in two weeks from yesterday.... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 02:36 AM
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42. So, with NC coming up in two weeks from yesterday....
What is Obama's expected delegate number to reduce the Pelosi number?

Obama is already polling 20% or higher, and will be a major, major blowout as well as another close one in Indiana, but I expect him to squeak by - as he's already busy in Indiana campaigning as he should be.

So Hillary, a day late, and a dollar wasted on the "victory" party of yours in Philly.

Hawkeye-X
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  -Obama closes in on the 'Pelosi Trigger' Magic Number now only 143 grantcart  Apr-23-08 12:09 AM   #0 
  - Oh god I hope this is the case...  mcctatas   Apr-23-08 12:10 AM   #1 
  - super delegates may not be super but they certainly aren't stupid  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:55 AM   #30 
  - Not very super in my book  DeeDeeNY   Apr-23-08 09:31 AM   #60 
     - rather narcissitic group aren't they.  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:00 PM   #77 
  - Oh it is. About May 20th (OR/KY primaries) Obama should hit that magic PD number.  ORDem   Apr-23-08 02:13 PM   #106 
  - and here is the thing we need to keep in mind the SDs are not stupid  grantcart   Apr-23-08 02:18 PM   #107 
  - Please let this happen  goclark   Apr-23-08 06:35 PM   #122 
     - well remember these guys are good real good  grantcart   Apr-23-08 09:53 PM   #125 
  - Kicked for Genius, and brevity!!!!  cliffordu   Apr-23-08 12:11 AM   #2 
  - Thanks Clifford  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:18 AM   #6 
     - Yer most welcome!!  cliffordu   Apr-23-08 12:21 AM   #12 
  - That's why Pelosi needs to shut her fucking mouth  Paint It Black   Apr-23-08 12:11 AM   #3 
  - huh?  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:15 AM   #5 
  - You mean the ones who are hacked they can't buy the candidate this time?  ClassWarrior   Apr-23-08 12:18 AM   #7 
     - that would be them  grantcart   Apr-23-08 05:58 PM   #120 
  - Deleted sub-thread  Name removed   Apr-23-08 12:15 AM   #4 
  - KnR Thanks for keepin it real again grantcart! nt  chknltl   Apr-23-08 12:19 AM   #8 
  - tks chknltl  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:23 AM   #14 
  - But Dean has committed to resolve Florida and Michigan soon.  speedoo   Apr-23-08 12:19 AM   #9 
  - that will be resolved after we have a presumptive nominee  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:21 AM   #11 
  - Dean has made it clear, consistently, that both campaigns must agree to the resolution.  Zhade   Apr-23-08 12:45 AM   #25 
  - So she could stonewall and continue to drag this out?  speedoo   Apr-23-08 01:26 AM   #33 
  - She has the advantage over those who follow rules....she follows her own.  madfloridian   Apr-23-08 12:26 PM   #83 
     - Thanks, madfloridian.  speedoo   Apr-23-08 12:49 PM   #86 
     - There is only one rule find the only rationale that would justify her and use that  grantcart   Apr-23-08 03:57 PM   #114 
  - and he has appointed a strong 25 member of independent minded folks to the  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:26 PM   #82 
     - True, but Hillary and her cronies will just see that as another obstacle.  speedoo   Apr-23-08 12:51 PM   #87 
  - Not so they count toward the nominee.  madfloridian   Apr-23-08 11:48 AM   #75 
     - Thanks.  speedoo   Apr-23-08 12:06 PM   #78 
     - thanks for stopping by  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:16 PM   #80 
        - Good post.  madfloridian   Apr-23-08 12:27 PM   #84 
  - Thanks grantcart  ampad   Apr-23-08 12:20 AM   #10 
  - tks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:43 AM   #24 
  - Oregon is right. If he can make it there, he can make it anywhere!  phrigndumass   Apr-23-08 12:23 AM   #13 
  - It would be nice if Oregon put him over  davidpdx   Apr-23-08 12:28 AM   #15 
  - great  grantcart   Apr-23-08 03:15 PM   #112 
  - and I think if Oregon realizes the honor it has it will really go wild  grantcart   Apr-23-08 04:11 PM   #115 
  - Grantcart ? why do we have to wait until Oregon  bigbrother05   Apr-23-08 12:28 AM   #16 
  - Won't happen May 6, not even if Obama wins NC 65/35 and IN 55/45.  Spider Jerusalem   Apr-23-08 12:33 AM   #18 
  - never mind  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:36 AM   #22 
  - No its not possible  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:34 AM   #20 
  - Obama needs to stay Upbeat. Let Hillary wallow in the mud. nt  votesomemore   Apr-23-08 12:30 AM   #17 
  - Exactly what the NYT editorial said - did you see it?  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:38 AM   #23 
     - No. Where?  votesomemore   Apr-23-08 12:47 AM   #27 
        - It will be everywhere tomorrow  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:52 AM   #29 
           - I guess you've seen this?  votesomemore   Apr-23-08 01:56 AM   #37 
              - he can be magnanimous  SoFlaJet   Apr-23-08 09:00 AM   #56 
              - He is so good. Come on Indiana - come on NC  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:52 AM   #76 
  - Perhaps Oregon will be the "Key State", then?  bhikkhu   Apr-23-08 12:33 AM   #19 
  - Or Kentucky earlier in the day.  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:34 AM   #21 
     - My own take on things...  bhikkhu   Apr-23-08 12:47 AM   #26 
        - I had the same thought - her speech was surprisingly reconciling and  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:50 AM   #28 
           - And asking for money!  bhikkhu   Apr-23-08 01:01 AM   #31 
              - wonder if she is going to spend that money or pay of her debt including her loan  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:43 AM   #73 
  - I was out of town and missed the Pelosi Club  bigbrother05   Apr-23-08 01:05 AM   #32 
  - In two weeks they will be halved again  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:07 PM   #79 
  - TERRIFIC...  Raine   Apr-23-08 01:31 AM   #34 
  - Please, make her GO AWAY!!  48percenter   Apr-23-08 01:37 AM   #35 
  - You can switch channels like I do, would make you feel better.  akbacchus_BC   Apr-23-08 01:45 AM   #36 
     - I live overseas  48percenter   Apr-23-08 02:17 AM   #39 
        - Hey, am in Canada, I can change channels too. Thanks for your  akbacchus_BC   Apr-23-08 02:28 AM   #40 
           - I don't know, had Hillary on mute as usual  48percenter   Apr-23-08 02:32 AM   #41 
           - You know, this race to the White House is unbelievable. Never thought Barack Obama would throw his  akbacchus_BC   Apr-23-08 05:37 AM   #45 
           - Clinton not run?? lol  grantcart   Apr-23-08 03:09 PM   #111 
           - I always mute her...always without fail.  ScarletSniper   Apr-23-08 08:19 AM   #53 
           - Apples and oranges. Obama's speech was directed at McCain and was statesmen like. Hillary's speech  IsItJustMe   Apr-23-08 08:12 AM   #51 
              - yeah and no thermonuclear war too  grantcart   Apr-23-08 06:52 PM   #123 
  - I really like how positive you are. When I saw the votes coming in..  akbacchus_BC   Apr-23-08 02:05 AM   #38 
  - They were supposed to do that after OH too, but they didn't.  TheDonkey   Apr-23-08 02:37 AM   #43 
  - Thank you for the response. Obama is my next President n/t  akbacchus_BC   Apr-23-08 06:06 AM   #47 
  - You have to keep in mind that it is in the media's interest to hype this and keep it going. It's  IsItJustMe   Apr-23-08 08:15 AM   #52 
  - thanks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:31 AM   #71 
  - Yes they are going to wait  MattBaggins   Apr-23-08 02:53 PM   #109 
  - actually 75 of them are add on SDs that haven't been chosen yet  grantcart   Apr-23-08 04:36 PM   #116 
  - thanks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 03:06 PM   #110 
  - So, with NC coming up in two weeks from yesterday....  HawkeyeX   Apr-23-08 02:36 AM   #42 
  - well here is the deal if you take the most favorable for Hillary or the most favorable for Obama  grantcart   Apr-23-08 10:47 AM   #65 
  - K & R  TragedyandHope   Apr-23-08 02:47 AM   #44 
  - Thanks its not the uplifting math or the hopeful math its just the math  grantcart   Apr-23-08 09:14 AM   #57 
  - More math  dbmk   Apr-23-08 05:51 AM   #46 
  - Nice analysis and graph  karynnj   Apr-23-08 07:11 AM   #48 
  - they will understand it when the super delegates endorse  grantcart   Apr-23-08 09:53 AM   #63 
  - but, the Clinton supporter will say, they are so close  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:58 PM   #89 
  - K&R GoBama!!!  SunsetDreams   Apr-23-08 07:20 AM   #49 
  - thanks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:08 AM   #68 
  - Morning update: I think the Pelosi number is 136 now?  phrigndumass   Apr-23-08 07:47 AM   #50 
  - my calcs consist of clicking on demconwatch lol  grantcart   Apr-23-08 09:17 AM   #58 
  - now 137  grantcart   Apr-23-08 10:59 AM   #67 
     - 137 is gravy!  phrigndumass   Apr-23-08 11:46 AM   #74 
        - parsley  grantcart   Apr-23-08 03:25 PM   #113 
  - I was looking forward to your first post-PA thread  psychopomp   Apr-23-08 08:49 AM   #54 
  - thanks for the beer  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:15 AM   #69 
  - Significant number of SD's my ass.  DemVet   Apr-23-08 08:54 AM   #55 
  - Since when does Nancy Pelosi get to write the DNC rules?  merbex   Apr-23-08 09:19 AM   #59 
  - She isn't writing any rules. She has described the conditions that she needs to  grantcart   Apr-23-08 09:33 AM   #61 
     - Writing about her "solution" as if if were de facto gospel rules is what 's wrong  merbex   Apr-23-08 09:51 AM   #62 
        - And all of the new information is going Obama's way  grantcart   Apr-23-08 10:43 AM   #64 
  - Please note that the above OP was issued on an estimate of delegates from PA  grantcart   Apr-23-08 10:51 AM   #66 
  - Obama, we've got your back here in Oregon.  Qutzupalotl   Apr-23-08 11:28 AM   #70 
  - How does it look outside of Portland?  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:36 AM   #72 
     - Eugene will go Obama.  Qutzupalotl   Apr-23-08 12:16 PM   #81 
        - Is it an open primary? Can republicans come in and cause havoc?  grantcart   Apr-23-08 12:54 PM   #88 
           - It's closed.  Qutzupalotl   Apr-23-08 01:02 PM   #93 
              - thanks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 01:31 PM   #97 
  - K & R  Scurrilous   Apr-23-08 12:41 PM   #85 
  - tks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 05:19 PM   #119 
  - Thank you for laying it out so clearly for everyone....however...  truebrit71   Apr-23-08 01:00 PM   #90 
  - Hopefully she raises enough money in the next few weeks and leaves on top  grantcart   Apr-23-08 01:14 PM   #95 
  - Thanks for reminding us of this. Its amazing how much noise the MSM is making to extend this farce.  futureliveshere   Apr-23-08 01:01 PM   #91 
  - thanks for stopping by  grantcart   Apr-23-08 01:27 PM   #96 
     - My pleasure. It's well worth my time.  futureliveshere   Apr-23-08 01:52 PM   #102 
        - ..  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:49 PM   #127 
  - K and R  ClayZ   Apr-23-08 01:01 PM   #92 
  - thanks  grantcart   Apr-23-08 01:40 PM   #98 
  - we'll make more noise very shortly.  knixphan   Apr-23-08 01:03 PM   #94 
  - wonder what ever happened on that one minute campaign  grantcart   Apr-23-08 01:52 PM   #101 
  - Another reason why this will end in June, Keep up the good post sir  uponit7771   Apr-23-08 01:42 PM   #99 
  - thank you  grantcart   Apr-23-08 02:03 PM   #103 
  - Scenarios...  Aya Reiko   Apr-23-08 01:42 PM   #100 
  - what totals are you using for the various states?  grantcart   Apr-23-08 02:08 PM   #104 
     - I was using Slate's delegate calculator  Aya Reiko   Apr-23-08 07:20 PM   #124 
        - KY or Oregon - of course there could be some additional pledged delegates  grantcart   Apr-23-08 11:01 PM   #126 
  - By my calculations Hillary would have to get 64% delegates..  mckeown1128   Apr-23-08 02:10 PM   #105 
  - Todd on MSNBC said yesterday that it would be about 69%  grantcart   Apr-23-08 02:37 PM   #108 
  - Here is a new SD for Obama, grantcart  WesDem   Apr-23-08 04:45 PM   #117 
  - lol just caught you at the other thread lol  grantcart   Apr-23-08 04:53 PM   #118 
  - ..  grantcart   Apr-23-08 06:34 PM   #121 
 

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