IF ISRAEL STRIKES IRAN FIRST, WILL HILLARY NUKE IRAN?

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Exactly what does Hillary Clinton mean when she says, “I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran"? Clinton told ABC, "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."

But, what if Israel launches that first-strike -- or, Israel strikes Iran after some third-party provocation -- which is the more plausible scenario. What then, Madam Commander-in-Chief? Are we bound by your pledge to “obliterate” Iran, even if Iran doesn’t fire the first shot?

Is that the message we want to send to a country that started a preemptive war with its neighbors in 1967? And, by that, I don't mean Iran.

Did you think this through, Hill, or is that exactly what you want us to expect during the Hillary Clinton Presidency?

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If elected President, Hillary Clinton appears to tie the fate of the United States to that of Israel, no matter who or what starts the hypothetical (G-d forbid) Israel-Iran war.

Here’s a not unlikely scenario in the all-too-near future. It is April 22, 2010. In her first State of the Union Address, just a few months before, President Hillary Clinton had identified Iran’s nuclear program as the “single greatest threat” to U.S. national security, and pledges that “any attack on Israel by Iran, or its proxies, will be treated as an attack on the United States, and will be dealt with as such.”

At 10:06 am, a large radiological dirty bomb is detonated in downtown Tel Aviv. There are hundreds of casualties. Live cable news coverage shows a towering black pillar of radioactive smoke over the city and scenes of bloody, charred victims. Shortly thereafter, the international wire services receive calls from someone claiming to represent a Palestinian group that has in the past received some assistance from the Iranian al Quds Brigade. CNN and Fox immediately go on the air and announcers repeat, over and over, a “nuclear attack in Israel has been carried out by terrorists linked to Iran who claim responsibility.”

At 10:22 am, in the Straits of Hormuz, Iranian speed boats approach a convoy of three US Navy destroyers. The Iranians are unaware of what has happened in Tel Aviv. This is just another day out in the sun for the young Iranian Guards, jumping wakes in their ski boats, making obscene gestures at the giant grey American warships. As the Iranian vessels close to within a quarter-mile, the Captain of the lead U.S. vessel receives a flash message about a nuclear detonation inside Israel and initial intelligence reports of a possible Iranian role – he opens fire on the Iranian boats when they come within 300 yards. The small fiberglass vessels and their crews are obliterated by gattling guns.

Watching this through binoculars from the eastern shore of the Persian Gulf, an Iranian base commander tries to reach his headquarters for instructions. His radio and optical fiber communications systems haven’t been working since he received a short, confusing message about a nuclear explosion in Israel. Assuming his communications have been jammed, and that war has started, he orders the launch of his mobile battery of anti-shipping missiles. The first wave of twelve Chinese-made C-802 supersonic missiles skim over the waves. Within seconds, two of the U.S. destroyers are struck, and begin sinking almost immediately. All up and down the coast as far as he can see, the commander watches the fiery streaks of missiles flashing back and forth and large explosions.

At 10:46 am, the Prime Minister of Israel is on a secure line with the White House Situation Room. He tells President Hillary Clinton that he is prepared to launch Israeli missile and air strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear, air and ballistic missile facilities, along with decapitating bunker-buster strikes against Iran’s command and control installations that have already been effectively blinded by Israeli electronic counter-measures.

If any Iranian retaliatory strike Israel with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads that get through Israel’s ABM shield, he tells her, Israel will launch a counter-force strike with some of its own nuclear weapons. Israel reserves the bulk of its nuclear arsenal, he warns, for later use against any other nation that might ally itself with Iran or try to avenge Iran.

What does he expect President Clinton will tell him? What do you think she will do? How would this situation be different with President Obama on the red phone two years from today?


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Compare Hillary Clinton’s threats yesterday on ABC to Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ statement delivered Monday evening at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y.: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/WireStory?id=4698444&pag...

"Another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need and, in fact, I believe it would be disastrous on a number of levels.”

By comparison, Mrs. Clinton makes the Bush Administration (except Mr. Cheney) sound like paragons of restraint and reason.

Even with Gates’ obligatory nod to keeping all options on the table, given what he calls “the destabilizing policies of the regime and the risks inherent in a future Iranian nuclear threat . . .” there’s still quite a difference in emphasis here.

But, calculations of war and peace are all about incremental logic and small steps add up to giant leaps into a deep, permanent dark place.

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Let’s look at an alternative future. Barack Obama has been elected President. Even before he is sworn into office officially on January 20, 2009, the President-Elect and his national security team have already had numerous meetings and conversations with high officials from Israel and Iran.

The message that has been conveyed is the U.S. will have no part in a preemptive war against Iran. America will not be prodded and tricked into another disaster, as it was in Iraq.

All parties should stand down their forces.

There will be no U.S.-Israel-Iran War. Not on President Obama's watch.

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