Reply #18: Not really

[Nicholas_J]

I absolutely didnt notice Gephart during the campaign for the nomination, however I started noticing all of the negative felings towards a person who by and large has made more contributions to the demoratic cause than Edwards would if he severd as long. Flat out, Gephardt is better prepared for the job, Edwards is not, Gephardt has years of hard experience, Edwards doesn not even have a full term under his belt. Gephardt has a great deal of support from a number of organization critical for a democrat to win, Gephardt has a chance of delivering several states according to analysts, analysts are fimr in their opinion that Edwards will not be able to bring a single state over to Kerry's side of the campaign. Edwards is simply overrated because of his personality. He has absolutely nothing else to offer.

Polls out of a number of states, Ohio for one, have Gephardt brining that state over to Kerry. Edwards does not. Gephardt has brough a great deal of support to Kerry in that state because of his attendence at every union activity over the last three months. Edwards does not have the backing of one union.

There are at least a half a dozen articles fronm a number of political analysts who indicate that Edwards strengths are also weakenesses. Almost all political analysts directly state that is is Gephard, not Edwards who could bring the most to Kerry's canpaign, with little that could hurt the campaign.

AS Slate noted:

Mr. Popularity
Given Kerry's charisma deficiency, he might want some fuel-injected charm at his side. John Edwards, whose blinding smile seduced so many crowds in the late primary season, could certainly help (if Kerry can forgive him for drawing out the primaries)....

Base Drums
These choices would help whip up liberal Democrats, who are far more animated by Bush-hatred than by Kerry-worship. The most touted name in this category is Dick Gephardt, reportedly a top contender at the moment, whose authentic populism and miles-deep roots with labor unions and other party interest groups make him a fine signifier of liberal passion. Drawbacks include Gephardt's co-sponsorship of the Iraq resolution—heresy to some liberals—and the fact that he's already flopped twice on the presidential campaign trail.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2101383/#ContinueArticle

Kerry Mum On VP Choice

PERRY, Ohio, June 25, 2004

...The opinions of voters in Ohio matter because the ability to help deliver the heartland is critical to Kerry's chances. Gephardt's strength in the Midwest is a clear asset, and exactly where the question marks come in for the southerner Edwards...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/06/25/eveningnews/main626222.shtml

WE go back to polls a few weeks ago, and As I noted Gephardt moved into second place, but it was a distant second:

Thanks to his tireless campaigning and his made-for-TV image, Sen. Edwards has emerged as a clear favorite with Democrats across the country. An AP-Ipsos poll released June 13 showed him well ahead of three likely rivals. According to the poll, 43 percent of Democrats would like to see Sen. Edwards in the No. 2 spot, compared to 19 percent for Rep. Dick Gephardt, 18 percent for Gen. Wesley Clark, and 4 percent for Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack...

Despite all the positives, Sen. Edwards is hardly a sure thing. Two of his greatest strengths—energy and personality—could also be seen as weaknesses by the sometimes-dour Sen. Kerry, who can't afford to be upstaged by his supporting cast.

Furthermore, despite his popularity in the polls, Sen. Edwards doesn't appear to tilt even a single state to the Democratic column. In his home state of North Carolina, for instance, adding Sen. Edwards to the ticket merely brings the Democrats within striking distance in the polls rather than putting them in the lead.

With no Southern states classified as "too close to call," some Kerry advisers want him to avoid the region altogether, instead picking a vice president with the ability to tip a battleground state to his advantage. That strategy would seem to favor Rep. Gephardt, a favorite son in vote-rich, hotly contested Missouri.



http://www.worldmag.com/newsite/content/displayArticle.cfm?id=9114

Two weeks later, Gephardt is now polling a very close second to Edwards, within striking distance to replace him for the number one slot. Gephardt is moving up on Edwards rapidly in the public eye as the person to be selected. This article suggests that while Edwards is populur, he brings not a single state to Kerry, and it is the state that counts. Win a state by one vote, take every single electol vote. The strategy of tipping close states favor Gephardt not Edwards and not in one article but most. ALl of the artitles comparing Edwards and Gephardt make this observation. All Edwards brings is a smile. Gephardt brings the best possibility of turning a few states around:

Among those being prominently mentioned is Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, a defeated primary rival who met privately this week with Kerry at the Capitol in what was widely assumed to be a discussion about the vice presidency. Gephardt, a favorite of organized labor, would presumably help the ticket in the Midwest and especially his home state of Missouri, a battleground that Democrat Al Gore lost narrowly in the last election.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/bal-te.veep19jun19,0,2030688.story?coll=bal-nationworld-headlines

Analysts believe a key reason Gephardt's presidential bid never caught fire is that many Democrats viewed him as part of the party's past. For instance, he first ran for the White House in 1988, and in many ways his message, image and style had changed little since then.

Gephardt's backers counter that such comments sell Gephardt short. They say he has the background and stature to step immediately into the Oval Office, if necessary, and the partisan moxie to go toe-to-toe in a debate with Vice President Dick Cheney. They also claim that Gephardt can rally critical union support for Kerry in the Midwestern industrial belt.

"He doesn't have many minuses," said Rep. Robert T. Matsui, D-Calif., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and a Gephardt ally. "I guess the only minus you could say is that he's been around a long time. But I think that helps the ticket."

http://www.sunherald.com/mld/thesunherald/news/world/8967518.htm

There are a significant number of articles that indicate that Gephardt would bring the most to Kerrys campaign, that indicate that Gephardt as a running mate has few if any negative attachments while Edwards is repeatedly said to be popular, but has not only nothing to bring to the campaign, but his record contains a number of elements that would be a negative to the Kerry campaign. All that Edwards seems to have is the medias attention.

ONe other fact is key,the media is predicting Edwards, and the last time the media made a correct prediction as to who would be the VP was Spiro Agnew.


Or try reports from the Kerry campaign:

I don't think you can say it is Edwards until John Kerry says it's Edwards. At the end of the day it comes down to whether people are comfortable with the choice," Rothenberg says.

Those close to Kerry say there may not be bad blood between him and Edwards, but there is a lack of comfort.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/06/15/politics/main623330.shtml

There have been a number of articles pointing out this fact as well. Kerry is said to not be comfortable with Edwards as a running mate. This not enough to rule him out, but it is a fact.

As opposed to the opinion of Kerry staff towards Gephardt:

Another former rival, Dick Gephardt, is well liked by Kerry and many of his advisers. "I'm happy to do it if he wants me to do it," Gephardt told The Associated Press Wednesday. "I'm equally happy to not do it, and just help in other ways...


Four years ago, few predicted that Bush would turn to Cheney, who headed his search team, or that Lieberman would become the first Jewish vice presidential nominee.

"The vice presidential nomination almost always doesn't go to the person who the people most expect. That doesn't bode well for John Edwards," said Steve McMahon, adviser to former Kerry rival Howard Dean.



http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/federal/20040616-1324-veepstakes.html

So what does Edwards have to offer. Not much except personality. The south is almost completely in Bush hands except for Florida, and Kerry heads there to begin with. Bush is too far ahead in Edwards own state for Edwards to turn that state around. Gephardt has considerable support among much of the political machine that matters, in the heavily populated I-70 corridor and in the heavily populated St Louis area of the state. Most of the opposition to Gephardt in Missouri comes from the western rural areas with small population.


So Gephrdt has the advanteges of many years of experience, extremely important for someone who must debate Cheney, a man with considerable experience. There is a distinct possibility of Gephardt turning one or two close states into Kerrys side. Edwards cannot do this. Kerry likes Gephardt. There is reported discomfort between Kerry and Edwards. Kerry has said that he absolutely does not want to make the kind of mistakes selecting a running mate that presidents have made in the past, like Kennedy/ Johnson. Kennedy didn like Johnson, but selected him because he was second place to him in electoral votes. As is the situation with Edwards.

When you read about Edwards, all you read is that he is popular, and then you hear the downside. WHen you read about Gephardt, you hear what he has to give to the campaign, and there is only one downsidereported, The length of his time in Washington. ANd that is not much of a downside for a VP who is expected to have the experience to take over for the president.