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Reply #15: I'm guessing she picks up +7 max out of the 55 pledged delegates if she can get a +11% PV lead. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
PerfectSage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-15-08 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
15. I'm guessing she picks up +7 max out of the 55 pledged delegates if she can get a +11% PV lead.
Edited on Tue Apr-15-08 07:28 PM by PerfectSage
I saw something on Dailykos? where the margin for gaining a delegate is calculated as:

200/55 pledged delegates = 3.64%

both HRC & BO start off with 27
assume HRC is winner: HRC +1

3.64% times 3 = 10.91% for HRC to get +3 from BO's 27 she needs to have an +10.91% margin of victory in PA

and HRC gets 31 and BO gets 24 of the 55 pledged delegates distributed by statewide totals and HRC nets +10 outa PA.

HRC will have a hard time getting a +8 total gain in delegates out of PA

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:




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