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Reply #68: With Clinton we win Ohio. With Obama you are gambling away 20 electoral votes for three small states [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-09-08 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #61
68. With Clinton we win Ohio. With Obama you are gambling away 20 electoral votes for three small states
Edited on Wed Apr-09-08 11:37 PM by jackson_dem
Clinton also puts New Mexico in play, as well as Arkansas, West Virginia, and Nevada. The Obama camp's argument that only he expands the electoral map doesn't hold water. The major difference is Clinton wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Obama is a joke in Florida, has a razor thin lead in Ohio while Clinton runs 8 points better than him there, and is shaky in Pennsylvania as well. The Obama argument is a series of gambles: "hope" he somehow manages to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania (forget Florida if Obama is the nominee) or if he loses one (if he loses both say hello to President McSame...)--which is very likely--that he makes it up by sweeping a bunch of small states and that he holds onto New Jersey and Massachusetts. If he loses one of the two big blue states the small state strategy is down the tubes, and pinning your hopes on three small states is not a good strategy if you cede Florida, and probably Ohio, by choosing Obama.
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  -We are in deep doody. McCain leads Obama in PA (48%-41%) demasiado  Apr-09-08 10:47 PM   #0 
  - Obama does not "need" PA or FL or OH  SoCalDem   Apr-09-08 10:49 PM   #1 
  - Any Democrat, Ma'am, Needs Pennsylvania And Ohio  The Magistrate   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #9 
  - It's like talking to a bunch of spell bound slaves or something,  aquarius dawning   Apr-09-08 10:54 PM   #16 
  - I think you could do better by referring to us as a "cargo cult"...just trying to help.  Bongo Prophet   Apr-10-08 04:34 AM   #92 
  - Pennsylvania yes, Ohio we could replace with New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado  Hippo_Tron   Apr-09-08 11:05 PM   # 
  - So with Obama we trade one state in the "hope" he sweeps three small states that Kerry lost?  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:21 PM   #54 
     - No we don't trade in Ohio, we compete on a larger map with more possibilities  Hippo_Tron   Apr-09-08 11:27 PM   #61 
        - With Clinton we win Ohio. With Obama you are gambling away 20 electoral votes for three small states  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:35 PM   #68 
           - Once again, April does not = October  Hippo_Tron   Apr-10-08 12:27 AM   #78 
           - 50 States, not just the traditional blue ones  Asgaya Dihi   Apr-10-08 12:51 AM   #81 
  - we only need one  MattNC   Apr-09-08 11:06 PM   #36 
  - We need both if we are going to lose Florida and Obama is a joke in Florida  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:23 PM   #55 
     - um, he just explained why you don't need both....  loveangelc   Apr-10-08 01:48 AM   #87 
  - Can you be a little more patronizing? What's up with "Ma'am"  thevoiceofreason   Apr-09-08 11:09 PM   #40 
  - That Would Take Effort, Sir....  The Magistrate   Apr-09-08 11:16 PM   #51 
  - Fair enough!  thevoiceofreason   Apr-09-08 11:18 PM   #52 
     - Nothing personal, it's just the Magistrate's shtick. We like him here, sir!  Bongo Prophet   Apr-10-08 04:22 AM   #91 
  - It's an affectation usually associated with the elderly raised in the South.  TexasObserver   Apr-10-08 07:37 AM   #102 
  - Indeed. But polls 7 months out  cali   Apr-10-08 04:47 AM   #93 
  - jesus, talk about the audacity of hope. More like the insanity of delusional thought processes.  aquarius dawning   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #10 
  - Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.  Alter Ego   Apr-10-08 07:23 AM   #97 
     - Let me tell you of what we get tired  polmaven   Apr-10-08 07:43 AM   #105 
  - Lol  prodn2000   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #12 
  - Yeah, because he will win places like Utah, Idaho, Alabama, and Alaska  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 10:56 PM   #19 
  - He'll be lucky to win Missouri.  aquarius dawning   Apr-09-08 11:09 PM   #42 
  - He may not even win New Jersey and Massachussetts  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:16 PM   #50 
  - You conveniently forgot; Nebraska, Montana and North Dakota.  goldcanyonaz   Apr-09-08 11:15 PM   #49 
  - That's a bold statement  demasiado   Apr-09-08 10:57 PM   #21 
  - map  SoCalDem   Apr-09-08 11:02 PM   #28 
  - where'd you get that map?  MattNC   Apr-09-08 11:09 PM   #41 
  - Make your own for fun at  SoCalDem   Apr-09-08 11:14 PM   #46 
  - Obama is down 11 points in Virginia. Subtract that and he is down to 264 electoral votes  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:25 PM   #57 
  - This map assumes that we win Virginia which has happened twice in the past 60 years.  aquarius dawning   Apr-09-08 11:27 PM   #64 
  - I keep tellin ya, don't count on Michigan  bain_sidhe   Apr-09-08 11:32 PM   #66 
     - Of course, I have to add...  bain_sidhe   Apr-09-08 11:37 PM   #69 
  - Obama needs more than minority support to win.  mac2   Apr-09-08 11:04 PM   #30 
  - Obama can win with under 40% of the white vote like Mondale did.  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:26 PM   #60 
     - Then act like they aren't all devils.  mac2   Apr-10-08 12:06 AM   #76 
  - Or MI, or ....  OzarkDem   Apr-09-08 11:10 PM   #44 
  - Nope.. he does need Michigan, and I really don't see Michiganders  SoCalDem   Apr-09-08 11:19 PM   #53 
  - I hope that your intention was to make a joke.  Beacool   Apr-10-08 12:55 AM   #83 
  - Uh, what elections have YOU been alive for?! These are must-haves!  WinkyDink   Apr-10-08 07:31 AM   #99 
  - McCain will lead both Obama and Clinton in MOST states until we have a GE candidate.  MercutioATC   Apr-09-08 10:50 PM   #2 
  - EXACTLY -- How come people don't understand this!!!  quantass   Apr-09-08 10:53 PM   #14 
  - Because society gives too much import to "up-to-the-minute" data.  MercutioATC   Apr-09-08 10:59 PM   #25 
  - Right.  mac2   Apr-09-08 11:05 PM   #34 
  - McCain will lead either that are served up in the GE. That's valid.  Neshanic   Apr-09-08 11:08 PM   #39 
  - Ah, thank goodness a concern troll who joined today.  thevoiceofreason   Apr-09-08 10:51 PM   #3 
  - Don't sweat the small stuff!  chill factor   Apr-09-08 10:51 PM   #4 
  - Considering the media there, this is not a surprise.  Capn Sunshine   Apr-09-08 10:51 PM   #5 
  - Well, that's because Hillary hit him with the kitchen sink, lost, and won't leave the race.  AtomicKitten   Apr-09-08 10:51 PM   #6 
  - Wrong. He doesn't lose as badly as Clinton in the red states and that boosts his national numbers  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:44 PM   #72 
     - The electoral college means squat in the primaries. You should know that.  AtomicKitten   Apr-09-08 11:57 PM   #74 
  - Psst! you there  Botany   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #7 
  - Yes polls 6 months before the election are gospel  Monty__   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #8 
  - Good point. The GOP has yet to touch O. He could be down 15 points in PA by the convention  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:27 PM   #62 
  - I'm not worried, the reasons are obvious and temporary.  jobycom   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #11 
  - People are finally starting to wake up & realize that only the Goddess of Peace can beat McCain  mtnsnake   Apr-09-08 10:52 PM   #13 
  - Randi Rhodes?  Capn Sunshine   Apr-09-08 10:54 PM   #15 
  - Randi was put on suspension for awhile by her station.  mac2   Apr-09-08 11:06 PM   #37 
  - Randi Rhodes like Mike Malloy are gone from Air America  mac2   Apr-10-08 08:44 AM   #108 
  - Yup. He is 10 points worse in PA than Hillary and the rethugs have yet to go after him!  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 10:57 PM   #20 
  - .......  Tarheel_Dem   Apr-09-08 10:57 PM   # 
  - The GOP can beat McCain? He is the GOP  thevoiceofreason   Apr-09-08 11:14 PM   #48 
  - Only the goddess can save us now. And besides, she's pretty!  Bongo Prophet   Apr-10-08 04:52 AM   #94 
     - Low blow considering the god Obama will save the world.  mac2   Apr-10-08 08:46 AM   #109 
  - Clinton wins by 3, Obama loses by 7. Obama is unlikely to win a general election  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 10:55 PM   #17 
  - Call me once we begin campaigning against McCain  Teaser   Apr-09-08 10:56 PM   #18 
  - We need to factor in the fact Hillary is much more electable in choosing a nominee  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 10:57 PM   #22 
     - I'm still getting used to your new avatar...sorry, it caught me off guard!  TK421   Apr-09-08 11:02 PM   #26 
     - Than whom? Jeffrey Dahmer?  MercutioATC   Apr-09-08 11:03 PM   #29 
        - The OP is the latest data point that supports it  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:05 PM   #33 
           - GE polls during a primary are practically useless.  MercutioATC   Apr-09-08 11:09 PM   #43 
  - Do you now what the (R) next to strategic vision means?  hnmnf   Apr-09-08 10:57 PM   #23 
  - SV is a legit firm  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:04 PM   #31 
  - Lets look at this again once we have a democratic nominee and a GE campaign going on  tammywammy   Apr-09-08 10:57 PM   #24 
  - Obama has yet to be attacked by the rethugs. He could be down 15 in PA for all we know by the August  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:06 PM   #38 
  - Yeah...down seven before he's even the nominee in ONE poll  BeyondGeography   Apr-09-08 11:02 PM   #27 
  - Yeah, as if only one poll has shown this  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:05 PM   #35 
     - The RCP average is -1.5%  BeyondGeography   Apr-09-08 11:11 PM   #45 
        - For Clinton it is +3.7. That is a difference of over 5 and the rethugs have yet to attack St. Obama  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:14 PM   #47 
           - So where are the other polls showing he's down 7 in Pa. again?  BeyondGeography   Apr-09-08 11:24 PM   #56 
              - He does significantly worse than Clinton in poll after poll  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:29 PM   #65 
                 - And how does Her Majesty measure up in WA, OR, CO, IA, WI, MN, and VA  BeyondGeography   Apr-09-08 11:33 PM   #67 
                    - Oh. You want to get into electoral math?  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:42 PM   #71 
                       - Yeah, we're real dunces about the electoral map  BeyondGeography   Apr-10-08 12:04 AM   #75 
  - We absolutely need to win Pennsylvania.  NJSecularist   Apr-09-08 11:04 PM   #32 
  - it`s over....every democrat in the remaining states  madrchsod   Apr-09-08 11:25 PM   #58 
  - Then you should be worried about Hill! Obama is closing  my3boyz   Apr-09-08 11:26 PM   #59 
  - Concern Troll Meets Granite Doody.  A-Schwarzenegger   Apr-09-08 11:27 PM   #63 
  - Oh please.  Political Heretic   Apr-09-08 11:38 PM   #70 
  - YES WE CAN (win without FL, PA, OH, and MI and their 85 electoral votes)!!!  jackson_dem   Apr-09-08 11:45 PM   #73 
  - In all likelyhood  Gore1FL   Apr-10-08 12:07 AM   #77 
  - I love these posts that scream the SKY IS FALLING  48percenter   Apr-10-08 12:32 AM   #79 
  - can you post this again in 6 months?  bobbert   Apr-10-08 12:35 AM   #80 
  - While Hillary would win the state over McCain.  Beacool   Apr-10-08 12:53 AM   #82 
  - McCain owns the middle. Obama owns the left.  aquarius dawning   Apr-10-08 12:55 AM   #84 
     - Precisely, that's why Hillary would be a better GE candidate.  Beacool   Apr-10-08 01:30 AM   #86 
        - I know. Try explaining that to you know who though.  aquarius dawning   Apr-10-08 04:06 AM   #89 
  - you realize  johnnydrama   Apr-10-08 12:59 AM   #85 
  - Oh God. Does the fact that there are 7 months for things to change mean nothing?  loveangelc   Apr-10-08 01:51 AM   #88 
  - I'm not putting a lot of stock in that right now.  SeattleGirl   Apr-10-08 04:09 AM   #90 
  - Wait until it's he and McCain one on one.  MrSlayer   Apr-10-08 05:02 AM   #95 
  - Not valid.  TexasObserver   Apr-10-08 07:21 AM   #96 
  - Obama has just started his campaign against McCain.  myrna minx   Apr-10-08 07:26 AM   #98 
  - If Hillary would GTFO  workinclasszero   Apr-10-08 07:34 AM   #100 
  - McCain's campaign has hardly begun.  Orsino   Apr-10-08 07:36 AM   #101 
  - So What? Obama was behind by 15-20 points to HRC months ago, until he started gearing up.  Pryderi   Apr-10-08 07:40 AM   #103 
  - Obama hasn't started his general campaign yet.  Vinca   Apr-10-08 07:43 AM   #104 
  - And well he shouldn't. He may not be the nominee..  Tellurian   Apr-10-08 07:45 AM   #106 
  - This poster is a trouble maker  Life Long Dem   Apr-10-08 07:49 AM   #107 
  - i'm going to lock this since this  wakemeupwhenitsover   Apr-10-08 08:58 AM   #110 
 

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