Kerry brilliant in response to Reagan's death.

[jfxgillis]

Here is why.

In the post-New Deal realignment that began with the Civil Rights/Vietnam disruptions of the old order, working-class whites who were culturally conservative but populist or even left or center-left economically were (or believed they were) alienated. Over the last 35 years, they moved towards:

George Wallace first.

Then they supported Reagan.

Then they voted for Perot.

They drifted a bit in elections wherein those choices were not so viable (some '68 Wallace voters went for Nixon, some '84 Reagan voters went for Dukakis and they seem to have split dead even in '00), but basically you can draw a straight line of "Reagan Democrats" from 1968 to the present--1966 if you count Reagan's ascendency to the Governor's mansion in California.

In Dixie, I would judge that most "Reagan Democrats" have since become "Reagan Republicans," as they actually should have been all along. Most of those Democrats were far FAR more conservative on ALL issues (including economics) than many Republicans anyway. Their transference of loyalties strengthens BOTH parties.

However, everywhere else in the country, "Reagan Democrats" remain up for grabs. If we can convince them that the cultural conservatism which drove them away is either not relevant to their lives (gay marriage, for example) or is a settled issue (racial intergration, for example), there's no reason why they cannot be enticed back into the Democratic coalition.

To do so, however, requires that they be treated sympathetically. And that's EXACTLY what's Kerry's response to Reagan's demise signals.

If Kerry can pull "Reagan Democratic" states like Louisiana and West Virginia back into the fold, the Dems not only cinch the Electoral College for one Presidential election one time in the year 2004, they have a real chance at assembling a governing coalition.

YOWSER. I'd say that's worth the gamble.