usregimechange
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Mon Mar-24-08 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #42 |
| 46. Thanks for posting... |
| -Indiana County-level Projections based on Demographic Characteristics |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 09:24 AM |
#0 |
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This is an excellent analysis. Thanks for posting it! |
phrigndumass |
Mar-23-08 09:28 AM |
#1 |
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Your welcome! I have started on NC but I want to look at Oregon too |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 09:34 AM |
#2 |
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Posting maps not used in the OP but that still may be of interest... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 05:36 PM |
#3 |
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population Lake co |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:00 PM |
#4 |
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You should charge per view to help your fund raising lol |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 06:08 PM |
#5 |
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The Philly districts appear to be weighted a bit more than others, advantage Obama |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:23 PM |
#7 |
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This is typical of all the states. Now here is the irony. The way that the system is |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 06:50 PM |
#16 |
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Lets say Obama wins district 2 in Philly by 74%, he would get 7 delegates to Hillary's 2. and... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:31 PM |
#8 |
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I just made the same point up thread lol |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 06:51 PM |
#17 |
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Of course the Pledged Delegates At-Large should even things up a bit for the state winner |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:36 PM |
#10 |
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so can you put it altogether and make a projection on pledged delegates? |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 06:53 PM |
#19 |
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Christ, now that would take a lot of work! And their are so many variables that I can't divine |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 07:01 PM |
#24 |
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Do you have a list of the districts and how many delegates each have? |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 08:13 PM |
#33 |
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Here is the list, will look at doing this... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 08:31 PM |
#34 |
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great how did you find it? |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 08:38 PM |
#36 |
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surfing... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 08:56 PM |
#38 |
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I just PM'd this guy - he seems to be an expert on PA maybe he can help |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 08:43 PM |
#37 |
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Someone Did A Breakdown By District A Couple Of Weeks Ago... |
JimGinPA |
Mar-24-08 01:22 AM |
#42 |
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that is an excellent find thank you |
grantcart |
Mar-24-08 01:39 AM |
#43 |
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The Only Thing Is - We Won't Know The Number Of New Voters For At Least A Few Days... |
JimGinPA |
Mar-24-08 01:49 AM |
#44 |
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Thanks for posting... |
usregimechange |
Mar-24-08 07:55 PM |
#46 |
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Another good analysis! K&R |
BumRushDaShow |
Mar-23-08 06:12 PM |
#6 |
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Are you saying Clinton should win Indiana as well but Obama has a chance? |
rug |
Mar-23-08 06:36 PM |
#9 |
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She should because the demographics favor her but Obama can if he can draw off of her voters |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:41 PM |
#12 |
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IN has less Blacks than the national average, is less educated, demos favor her |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:43 PM |
#13 |
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There is another factor that no one is tracking: |
grantcart |
Mar-23-08 06:55 PM |
#20 |
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Excellent point, and they would be correct imo |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 07:09 PM |
#27 |
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Thanks for the clarification. Good stuff. |
rug |
Mar-23-08 06:47 PM |
#14 |
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What's your gut feeling on how Indiana will turnout percentagewise? |
malik flavors |
Mar-23-08 06:40 PM |
#11 |
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Even though the demos favor Clinton, this is near Obama's home state and guys... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:52 PM |
#18 |
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And having lived in NW Indiana for 7+ years, I can tell you that that area IS Chicago East |
SoCalDem |
Mar-23-08 08:37 PM |
#35 |
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Great Work |
DemocratSinceBirth |
Mar-23-08 06:49 PM |
#15 |
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You are right and that is a major weakness in this. Not that polling doesn't have its weaknesses.. |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 06:58 PM |
#22 |
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I'm Making A Subjective Observation Not An Empirical One |
DemocratSinceBirth |
Mar-23-08 07:01 PM |
#23 |
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Yeah, it would be sad but this, like polling, only gives us an indication... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 07:05 PM |
#25 |
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What Do You Think These Demographic Trends Portend For The General |
DemocratSinceBirth |
Mar-23-08 07:08 PM |
#26 |
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We will lose some and gain others but Bush and co may assist us the most in keeping many of them on |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 07:12 PM |
#28 |
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Hillary Has Working Class Whites, Latinos, Females, And Older People |
DemocratSinceBirth |
Mar-23-08 07:18 PM |
# |
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And we would lose some and gain others with either candidate... |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 07:15 PM |
#29 |
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Hillary Has Working Class Whites, Latinos, Females, And Older People |
DemocratSinceBirth |
Mar-23-08 07:21 PM |
#31 |
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Nice work! |
crispini |
Mar-23-08 06:55 PM |
#21 |
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don't forget factor I |
mopinko |
Mar-23-08 07:18 PM |
#30 |
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I was checking out your PA anaylsis. |
blue neen |
Mar-23-08 08:12 PM |
#32 |
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That ring of "old people" counties is kind of interesting. |
Zynx |
Mar-23-08 09:01 PM |
#39 |
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Little farm communites.... the last of the family farms |
SoCalDem |
Mar-23-08 09:02 PM |
#40 |
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Yep, Indiana is like an age doughnut! |
usregimechange |
Mar-23-08 10:28 PM |
#41 |
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K&R - I would also watch the counties that border IL like Vermilion |
Tatiana |
Mar-24-08 02:41 AM |
#45 |
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