Reply #21: Gephardt could easily

[Nicholas_J]

tip the balance for Kerry in a number of industrial and highly unionized states where up until the last few weeks, were rated as totally and completely "blue" but which have slipped into "too close to tell"
states. In Michigan , Kerry was in a double digit leads against Bush for several months. Same thing in Iowa, where Kerry had double digit leads. While Gephardt did not do well in Iowa, his political connections and in particular ability to garner a great deal of union support throught the rust belt. Gephardt still packs a lot of power with those people,no one else does. Same thing with Tom Vilsack, relatively unknown outside of his arena, but a major player in the Mid-west.Kerry had a ten point lead in Iowa a month ago, now Kerry is one poinr ahead of BUsh there. In Michigan, a ten point lean, now down to three, Kerry was way behind Bush in Missouri double digit leads, is still 7 points behind him, but Gephardt could easily naarrow that gap in his own state. Wisconsin is a virtual tie between Kerry and Bush, but Gephardt or Vilsack are relative home boys there,
Ohio is another state that Gephardt would have considerably more pull in than either Clark or Gephardt with the heavily unionized worker base there.

Clark cannot deliver this, nor can Edwards. Edwards did well in Wisconsin, but with heavy, heavy campaigning, a state that such an expenditure of time, money and effort should have gone to him,did not.

A charismatic vice president is not someone you want. Someone like Gephardt is a far more traditional choice. A running mate with a lot of political connections is what you want. A strong personality in a vice president detracts from the main candidate

Look at every VP for the last couple of presidencies. Gore, not exactly a charismatic character, Dan Quayle a power broker only despised among Idaho Republicans and this only for his spelling,
I cant even remember Jimmy Carters VP, Walter Mondale, not exactly an exciting guy, how about Reagans George Herbert Walkser Bush. Lets go back to Spiro Agnew and Gerry Ford. Then how about Hubert Humphrey.

Even Lyndon Johnson was not exactly considered a sparking personality, but selected by JFK for his being a major power broker.

Thats why you choose a running mate. Neither Edwards, with less than one full term in office, or Clark with no full terms in office, can offer any of the baseline power that a presidential candidate needs to secure a regional base. And aside from connections, political running mates are chosen to secure a needed region by presidential candidates. Kerry will have an easier time pullin the midwest and rust belt from Bush than the south. And Kerry is raising enough money to seriouslt compete with Bush's spending if he confines it to a region with a large population and a large electoral vote base. That is not something Edwards can deliver, or Clark.

Vilsack may be able to, but Gephardt will be able to do this for certain.