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Reply #75: The benefit of the doubt goes to Obama [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #43
75. The benefit of the doubt goes to Obama
Being ahead in pledged Delegates wins him that even though there is nothing in the rules that tell Super Delegates how to vote. But Obama has not won the nomination in the primaries, he hasn't been able to reach the threshold needed to do that and so there is no automatic obligation to nominate him.

If the best Hillary can do between now and the convention is win a dozen or two more pledged delegates than Obama in the remaining races, without establishing very significant momentum in the closing months of the race, that won't be a good enough reason for Super Delegates to give her the nomination. However if Hillary opens up an 8-10 point gap in almost all of the national polls over Obama by the time this is ending, if she wins all of the races she is favored to win while losing none of those and winning some of the one's that Obama was thought to be favored in, that changes things.

If Clinton is surging and Obama is fading, if the public is starting to rally toward her and away from Obama, that changes things in a scenario where they are only several percentage points apart in pledged delegates they each won. If Clinton is very close without Florida being counted, that is a factor it is legitimate for SD's to consider. Is she shows strenths in the populations of States we need to win, that is a factor also. There are others also but I just got my dinner call, lol.
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  -Sincere question to Hillary supporters: If Clinton wins with the aid of Super Delegates.... RiverStone  Mar-17-08 04:12 PM   #0 
  - You should add in the assumption that Hillary also loses the popular vote (a near certainty)  Drachasor   Mar-17-08 04:14 PM   #1 
  - Ok, added as an assumption...n/t  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:23 PM   #10 
  - Keep in mind that Obama is courting the delegates also. This isn't a one way street.  elixir   Mar-17-08 04:15 PM   #2 
  - True, but he already has a lock on the pledged delegates...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:19 PM   #6 
  - Rules say the SDs can vote the way they want.  Hatchling   Mar-17-08 04:44 PM   #28 
     - The SCOTUS made the rules for the 2000 election as well...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:49 PM   #33 
        - Bush v Gore was so unconstitutional that SCOTUS wrote into it that it could not be a legal precedent  AlGore-08.com   Mar-17-08 05:43 PM   #63 
        - You are wrong on Bush v. Gore  bamalib   Mar-17-08 06:24 PM   #72 
        - The SCOTUS ruled after the election.  Hatchling   Mar-17-08 08:51 PM   #82 
  - Well if Clinton is going after them, he would be negligent if he just sat back  high density   Mar-17-08 04:21 PM   #8 
  - While I would NOT vote for Obama were the situation reversed.  ieoeja   Mar-17-08 04:37 PM   #23 
     - ...those circumstances  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:42 PM   #27 
  - Just so I'll know...  BigDDem   Mar-17-08 04:16 PM   #3 
  - Hm. Way to miss the entire point of the post.  slick8790   Mar-17-08 04:19 PM   #7 
  - Team "God Damn America" works the superdelegates  BigDDem   Mar-17-08 04:23 PM   #11 
     - Are you seriously just that thick?  slick8790   Mar-17-08 04:26 PM   #12 
     - My personal opinion is whoever has the most popular vote  BigDDem   Mar-17-08 04:29 PM   #15 
        - Indeed I am.  slick8790   Mar-17-08 04:34 PM   #20 
     - How would you feel if I said, "Team Only In It Because He's Black" in reference ot HRC's campaign?  Kittycat   Mar-17-08 04:32 PM   #18 
        - Go for it  BigDDem   Mar-17-08 04:46 PM   #31 
           - Well let me ask you...  Kittycat   Mar-17-08 06:03 PM   #68 
              - I hope that team BO  BigDDem   Mar-18-08 08:34 AM   #85 
  - I'm still looking for an answer...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:27 PM   #14 
  - Of course they will flock to the voting booth  leftofcool   Mar-17-08 04:17 PM   #4 
  - No. Democrats want Democracy.  bunnies   Mar-17-08 04:27 PM   #13 
  - Do you think anybody will think twice regarding "how" she got to the nomination?  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:29 PM   #16 
  - Queue the crickets: chirp . . . chirp . . . chirp . . .  InAbLuEsTaTe   Mar-17-08 04:18 PM   #5 
  - I'd be happy if a cricket answered the question....  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:21 PM   #9 
  - She could also win by having the convention go to the second ballot if the SD's don't commit  Hippo_Tron   Mar-17-08 04:30 PM   #17 
  - And all the while the many Dems who voted in the primaries and...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:34 PM   #19 
     - Well I'm an Obama supporter, but I'm just saying that could happen  Hippo_Tron   Mar-17-08 04:39 PM   #25 
        - Backlash!  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:46 PM   #30 
  - It would have to be close in pledged delegates for Hillary to make a viable case.  rinsd   Mar-17-08 04:34 PM   #21 
  - Thank you and taking it one step further...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:38 PM   #24 
     - Not sure.  rinsd   Mar-18-08 10:52 AM   #88 
  - Neither candidate is likely to win the "magic number" so I  styersc   Mar-17-08 04:36 PM   #22 
  - I'd say it was Karma striking back at Obama for Swiftboating the Clintons on Race.  MethuenProgressive   Mar-17-08 04:39 PM   #26 
  - I'd say that never happened and karma did bite hilly and bill  cali   Mar-17-08 04:45 PM   #29 
  - Link to HuffPo expose of the Obama Camp's plot to Swiftboat the Clintons  MethuenProgressive   Mar-17-08 04:47 PM   #32 
  - put her at under 50 and...  bobbydem   Mar-17-08 04:58 PM   #39 
  - Sorry, I don't buy his spin.  cali   Mar-17-08 05:15 PM   #47 
  - Pelosi can only influence their votes.  Hatchling   Mar-17-08 04:56 PM   #36 
     - Sorry, but Pelosi does bring other House SD votes with her  cali   Mar-17-08 05:17 PM   #50 
  - Forget karma for a second....  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 04:53 PM   #35 
     - Define "folks"  MethuenProgressive   Mar-17-08 04:58 PM   #38 
  - Regardless of who wins,  metalluk   Mar-17-08 04:51 PM   #34 
  - I think a lot of people are gonig to walk away regardless of who wins.  dbaker41   Mar-17-08 04:57 PM   #37 
  - Unless...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:05 PM   #41 
  - The superdelegates are not and never were required to reflect the popular vote.  Arkansas Granny   Mar-17-08 05:05 PM   #40 
  - Ok, so they do not follow the vote. They may be legal - but how will the people feel about it?  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:08 PM   #43 
  - Regardless how the superdelegates decide to cast their votes, one group  Arkansas Granny   Mar-17-08 06:29 PM   #73 
  - The benefit of the doubt goes to Obama  Tom Rinaldo   Mar-17-08 06:51 PM   #75 
  - well florida's out  bobbydem   Mar-17-08 05:11 PM   #45 
  - I'm not crazy about Hillary, but would vote for her if she won fair and square  scard   Mar-17-08 05:07 PM   #42 
  - i am so tired of this crap. the SD's are there to make an independent judgement on who is electable  Texas Hill Country   Mar-17-08 05:09 PM   #44 
  - I dont think too many are bitching  bobbydem   Mar-17-08 05:14 PM   #46 
     - thank you. it is very much appreciated. the whole tear the party apart thing gets old.  Texas Hill Country   Mar-17-08 05:18 PM   #51 
        - And where I do see a SD over-ride as potentially...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:24 PM   #52 
  - If you picture a candidate imploding on the final stretch  2rth2pwr   Mar-17-08 05:17 PM   #48 
  - I don't know, but I see plenty of folks NOT flocking to the voting booth  Beacool   Mar-17-08 05:17 PM   #49 
  - lets be real  bobbydem   Mar-17-08 05:25 PM   #53 
  - Nope we won't...............  Beacool   Mar-17-08 05:38 PM   #57 
     - I can't fathom EVER voting for McCain...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:40 PM   #59 
        - I couldn't vote for McCain, but neither could I vote for Obama.  Beacool   Mar-17-08 05:46 PM   #64 
           - It's fine to be honest  MattBaggins   Mar-17-08 06:10 PM   #70 
  - And we can agree to disagree on this forever...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:36 PM   #56 
     - It's beyond Hillary.  Beacool   Mar-17-08 05:43 PM   #62 
     - If you "diss Hillary, et. al" you "diss her supporters."  bamalib   Mar-17-08 06:09 PM   #69 
        - There is a differerence...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 07:23 PM   #76 
  - It is a mathematical fact that if Hillary wins with Superdelegates,  Ravy   Mar-17-08 05:28 PM   #54 
  - Your not taking about taking the will of the people away are you?  Life Long Dem   Mar-17-08 05:33 PM   #55 
  - Oh yea, lots of good will would be taken away, IMO  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:38 PM   #58 
     - Great post by the way.  Life Long Dem   Mar-17-08 06:00 PM   #66 
  - Relax. There is no vast smoke-filled room conspiracy  IDemo   Mar-17-08 05:41 PM   #60 
  - I hope your right on IDemo - appreciate the optimism!  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 05:42 PM   #61 
  - Question  AJH032   Mar-17-08 05:47 PM   #65 
  - How did we survive before SD's were introduced?  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 07:27 PM   #77 
  - Obama supporters cheer when a superdelegate switches to their side  finalnews   Mar-17-08 06:01 PM   #67 
  - Many people think they are not needed at all.  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 07:28 PM   #78 
  - Here's a real question  jconner27   Mar-17-08 06:21 PM   #71 
  - There is plenty of mud slinging on both sides...  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 07:33 PM   #79 
  - To further your analogy - look at the 1972 Olympic Gold Medal Basketball game  dansolo   Mar-17-08 06:44 PM   #74 
  - 2025 TO WIN....NOTHING LESS  mjg540   Mar-17-08 07:38 PM   #80 
  - It's a win.  Swede   Mar-17-08 07:41 PM   #81 
  - I don't see even ONE straight-up response to important question the OP posed. NOT ONE.  DeadElephant_ORG   Mar-17-08 09:07 PM   #83 
  - Must have been a hard question eh?  RiverStone   Mar-17-08 10:46 PM   #84 
  - Bill Press Opening the Door for Superdelegates for Hillary  JPZenger   Mar-18-08 08:37 AM   #86 
  - Can you tell me a scenario in which Obama wins...  BlueLizard   Mar-18-08 08:51 AM   #87 
 

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