Reply #: Dem Race May Come Down To North Carolina

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Dem Race May Come Down To North Carolina

Posted by Kevin Hechtkopf| March 6, 2008, 11:49 AM

(AP (file))CBS News political consultant Joe Trippi weighs in on the future of the Democratic race following Hillary Clinton's wins in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island:

The night of Super Tuesday it became clear that if you looked over the horizon Obama was going to be in the driver's seat for 10 or 11 contests, and that the first night Clinton would have a clear shot at victory would be March 4th in Ohio and Texas. It also became apparent that if Obama could target Texas and win it he might be able to break Clinton's back and stop any real chance at a Clinton nomination.

...Watch North Carolina

Just as I pointed to Texas as the place that I thought Obama would try to break Clinton's back, North Carolina now becomes the pivotal contest. It's the place where I expect the Clinton Campaign will try to break Obama's back.

Barack Obama has performed terribly among white southern Baptists and the state with the second highest percentage of white southern Baptists is North Carolina. Clinton won Tennessee by 13 points 54 percent to 41 percent and North Carolina is much more like Tennessee demographically than states Obama has done well in like Virginia or South Carolina.

I know it breaks with conventional wisdom that Pennsylvania is the most important state. But realistically if Clinton can't win Pennsylvania she won't be the nominee. The way Clinton puts Obama away is to win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania and then roll into North Carolina and break his back there.

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