Reply #7: I wouldn't put my faith in Rasmussen.

[eumesmo]

His methodology is suspect using machines, and was way off in 2000. It's quite likely at this point that Bush has a slight lead, but this is due in part to Nader drawing a large % of the vote. It's very possible that Nader will do worse in Nov. than he is doing now, so the numbers for Bush may be overstated. Plus undecideds tend to break for the challenger, so if Kerry is as close now in say October as he is now, that will bode well. The key states are Ohio, Penn and Florida. Whoever takes 2 out of those 3 will almost certainly win.