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Reply #24: That is complete fantasy. Let's look at the numbers [View All]

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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. That is complete fantasy. Let's look at the numbers
Using the RealClearPolitics tally, she has 1223 pledged. That isn't completely up to date with the TX counts, so it actually overstates Clinton's position, but let's be conservative. Using current polling numbers most to her advantage for MS, PA, and NC, she would get 14, 90, and 53 respectively from those contests. Assuming she has a 10-point victory in all the rest of the states, she would get 2, 40, 15, 29, 28, 30, 9, 8 from Guam, IN, WV, OR, KY, PR, MT, and SD. That is giving her a huge benefit of the doubt because she will not win all of these and may not win any of them by 10 points. But let's just say so to give her the fullest benefit of any doubt.

Realclearpolitics says she has 242 superduper delegates on her side. I don't think they have recorded the latest defections, but that's OK. Let's give her every advantage.

With all of that, the best she can do is 1783 delegates, leaving her 242 short.

Using the realclearpolitics superduper numbers, there are only 343 superdupers not yet committed, so she would have to win with the above spreads AND also convince 71% of the remaining superdupers to come to her side. That is not just unlikely. It is absolutely impossible, considering that she hasn't drawn a SINGLE superdelegate in a month. She has been LOSING ground on supers in the past month, and the majority of those not yet committed are waiting to see how comes out ahead in the pledged delegates.

It is over. There is no mathematical way she can pull this off. Her choice to run a divisive campaign in the face of certain defeat is truly outrageous.


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