VP Debunker: Bayh won't sell

[katieforeman]

From some of the comments I've heard coming from the Kerry camp, I have a sneaky suspicion that Evan Bayh is further up the short list than most of us realize. Kerry already tipped his hand when he said he could win without the South. We all know how important OH is, and Bayh has the policy wonkish qualities Kerry seems to value.

Here are some of the reasons Kerry may be considering Bayh so seriously:

Geography As a Democrat in a Midwestern Republican state, Bayh has a record of attracting ticket-splitters. Therefore, Bayh will help the ticket win moderate Republicans and independents in OH and other key Midwestern battleground states.

Debunker: There is absolutely no evidence that Bayh's ability to win Republican votes in an IN senate or governor race will translate into the ability to win votes for Kerry outside of IN in a presidential race. Voting for governor or senator is a very different decision than voting for a President. Furthermore, Bayh has no proven appeal outside of IN. He has no experience in a national campaign.

John Edwards, on the other hand, has proven his appeal to moderates and Independents. During the primaries he won among these groups in WI and other states. John Edwards has experience running a national campaign. He was beating President Bush by about 10 points in national polls, about the same as Kerry at the time, before he dropped out of the race.

Free media According to conventional wisdom, a surprise choice for VP generates more free media coverage. Furthermore, a surprise might send Republicans scrambling to change their strategy.

Debunker: This line of reasoning ignores the very real expectations and preference for John Edwards. Many of the Kerry voters and volunteers I spoke with seemed to be under the impression they were voting for a Kerry/Edwards ticket. According to exit polls, Edwards was the first choice for VP among 40% of primary voters. See www.draftkerryedwards.com for more polls.

This clear preference and expectation for a particular vp is unprecedented. Has there ever been a movement to draft a vp?

An unexpected but uninspired choice, has the potential to hit the ground with a thud, generating a wave of dissapointment rather than a wave of excitement. The media is already speculating that Kerry might not choose Edwards because he doesn't want to be upstaged by his running-mate. As one reporter put it, if Edwards isn't chosen it will be because he is a rock star. There may also be speculation that Kerry still held a grudge against Edwards over the primary campaign.
This kind of coverage nobody needs.

Furthermore, if George Bush has taught us anything it is that expectations matter. Bayh would be subjected to constant comparisons to Edwards.

Finally, if Kerry turns a deaf ear to the clearly expressed preference of the people who gave him the nomination, it may re-enforce the negative streotype of Kerry as aloof and out of touch.

Play for the Middle Bayh has executive experience and has balanced budgets as a governor. Bayh's record as a fiscal conservative will help nuetralize Bush's charges that Kerry is an old-style tax and spin liberal.

Debunker:Ultimately, people vote for President not vice-president. Voters really don't care whether or not Kerry's running mate has executive experience or is from a neighboring state. Kerry's running mate is important because his running mate affects the way voters see Kerry.

Kerry's choice of running-mate sends a message about his values. True, the selection of Bayh might send a signal about Kerry's fiscal conservatism. However, the seletion of Edwards sends a strong message that Kerry cares about jobs and working people. That's a more appealing message to many swing voters.

Kerry and his running mate will be interacting frequently in public. Edwards brings out Kerry's smile and warmth. Edwards helps people like and connect with Kerry. Bayh seems a little stiff and might re-enforce the notion that Kerry is aloof and out of touch.

Kerry's running-mate will be his top campaigner. Edwards is the best campaigner in the party today. As one of the most feared trial attorneys in NC, Edwards learned how to make a persuasive argument. Edwards is the best person to make the case for John Kerry every single day. Bayh is an unknown as a campaigner.

Kerry's name will be linked inextricably with that of his running-mate forming a sort of brand. The Kerry/Edwards brand evokes energy, optimism, courage and experience. Kerry/Bayh is a career politician brand.

Sometimes the obvious choice is also the best choice. Please, please Senator Kerry pick Edwards.

PS These arguments against Bayh also apply to Gov. Vilsek of IA and Gov Rendell of PA.