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Reply #5: It's because of the math [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
stahbrett Donating Member (855 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-26-08 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. It's because of the math
In order for Hillary Clinton to just catch up to Obama, she needs to win something like 58% of all remaining delegates. Then when you realize that Obama is likely to win big in many of the remaining 16 elections, that percentage goes up in the states where she will likely win/have a chance.

Can she win in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? Sure, it's definitely possible. Can she win by the margins needed to actually catch up in delegates? No, barring some "dead girl/live boy" picture of Obama surfacing.

So the strategy is to get the delegate closer, and then make the argument to the super-delegates that she's better able to beat McCain. THAT is where the national polls can be used by either or both sides. I guess Clinton would point to the tracking polls, and Obama would point to the national polls.
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  -Obama vs. Clinton: Two different polls cbayer  Feb-26-08 02:30 PM   #0 
  - national polls will not have much effect (other than possibly on superdelegates)  stahbrett   Feb-26-08 02:35 PM   #1 
  - But they do reflect the will of the people to some extent.  cbayer   Feb-26-08 02:42 PM   #2 
     - It's because of the math  stahbrett   Feb-26-08 02:52 PM   #5 
  - the NYT wanted a poll biased to Obama - and got it - so as to get the vote for winner crowd  papau   Feb-26-08 02:45 PM   #3 
  - You mean the NYT that endorsed Clinton? That one?  hnmnf   Feb-26-08 02:46 PM   #4 
  - YEP - the same one that pretends no bias and some left bent - surprised?  papau   Feb-26-08 02:53 PM   #6 
  - Where does the NYT come in here?  cbayer   Feb-26-08 02:55 PM   #8 
  - One Poll Is Wrong And One Poll Is Right  DemocratSinceBirth   Feb-26-08 02:54 PM   #7 
     - Extraordinarily divergent results.  cbayer   Feb-26-08 02:57 PM   #9 

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