Obama Has a 50% Chance of Winning the WH; McCain 34%; Clinton 17%

[Stephanie]

I like them odds.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/02/15/2008-02-15_web_gamblers_betting_on_barack_obama.html

Web gamblers betting on Barack Obama
BY HELEN KENNEDY
Friday, February 15th 2008, 4:00 AM

If you needed one more sign that Barack Obama is on a roll, the futures trading markets have decided he's a very good bet.

According to several overseas online exchanges, Obama is now a virtual lock to win all the upcoming primaries, including Texas and Ohio — the states Hillary Clinton is pinning her hopes on.

And he's the even-money favorite to be elected President in November.

"Obama has all the momentum, and the betting odds reflect that," said Steve Budin, an oddsmaker at sportsinfo.com who puts Obama's likelihood of being President at 4-5, with Clinton and John McCain both at 3-2.

***

Betting on politics is a new multimillion-dollar Internet industry — it's a high-tech revival of an American fad that was big in the 1800s — and some experts regard traders as better fortune-tellers than pollsters.

"There are many ways of forecasting elections: polls, talking heads on TV, what have you. In all of the head-to-head comparisons, predictions markets have yielded better answers," said Wharton School Prof. Justin Wolfers.

***

The Iowa Electronic Markets flipped after Super Tuesday, when Obama won more states than Clinton. It now gives him a 70% shot at the nomination, while Intrade.com pegs his likelihood at 75%.

Obama stands a 50-50 chance of winning the White House, according to line-setters. GOPer John McCain has a 34% shot, and Clinton is looking at a 17% chance.

http: //news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//080214/ids_photos_ts/r611580072.jpg/