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Reply #15: If/when Edwards loses NC to Bush [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
Lexingtonian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-27-04 05:53 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. If/when Edwards loses NC to Bush

as can be reasonably expected with some serious effort by W, your point as such becomes irrelevant.

The NH voter demographic is simply more genuinely Independent than NC's. 6% voted third party in '00- Bush won 48%-46%. He won NC 56%-44% against a Southerner. Assuming NH shifted Democratic by the national average in the East of 1%-2% and NC shifted 4% (Liddy got 54% halfway through the term), that's parity in NH for Democrats this year and ~5% mostly Green-leaning voters, and NC at a solidly 52% R/ 48% D. Guess which one(s) Kerry would win, which one(s) Edwards would.

I say Kerry gets NH in the General, Edwards gets neither.

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