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Reply #10: Sen. Clinton has the Iowa lead in some polls, although not all polls, and [View All]

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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-22-07 05:01 PM
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10. Sen. Clinton has the Iowa lead in some polls, although not all polls, and
Edited on Sat Dec-22-07 05:08 PM by Old Crusoe
in most polls the differentials are squeeze-tight and close.

She could win in Iowa and would likely be hard to dislodge after that.

She could place second in Iowa and still make a convincing bid in New Hampshire. If she places a perilously close second in Iowa, she can still win in New Hampshire and be right back on top as frontrunner. She loses 5 days, tops.

If John Edwards and Barack Obama both defeat her in Iowa, the rationale for her as the nominee thins a bit, although is not disqualifying. She has South Carolina, where Obama is favored slightly at the moment, but I believe within the margin of error.

She has 3 good chances in that spread of scenarios to maintain front-runner status, or re-gain it if it's threatened in Iowa and New Hampshire.

If Edwards wins Iowa, voters in subsequent states will very likely be giving him a better look and fair reconsideration, and properly so. If Edwards wins by a lot, the politics of the party between Jan 4th and Feb. 5th are going to involve firebombings and ICBMs. The party will do whatever it can to stop him from winning the nomination. Clinton and Obama are the likely beneficiaries of that bias in this scenario, IMO.

Joe Biden's appeal in Iowa is undeniable but has yet to translate to double-figure voting support. That could change in only a few days' time. Primary elections have a way of being too fluid for predictions. Just ask Presidents Gephardt and Dean. Biden's qualifications are across the board, but Iraq remains a sour issue in voters' minds, even if the lackeys in the mainstream media aren't covering it any more. A lot of Iowa families have a stake in the Iraq War and Biden is extremely sure-footed in foreign policy. I would definitely not count him out as a top-three contender. And more, if Biden rises sharply, it will come at Sen. Clinton's expense, IMO.

An Edwards win in Iowa does not elect Senator Clinton. It puts greater pressure on her campaign to demonstrate a compelling rationale to be our nominee. And in any case Senator Clinton has to make her pitch to voters on her own terms.

Just my take.
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  -Convince me that an Edwards victory in Iowa means anything besides a Hillary nomination Fried Bread  Dec-22-07 04:52 PM   #0 
  - Edwards wins means Hillary is nominated?  liberal N proud   Dec-22-07 04:55 PM   #1 
  - A victory in Iowa doesn't mean that anything is guaranteed.  Happyhippychick   Dec-22-07 04:56 PM   #2 
  - If Edwards wins Iowa he'll get a TON of national attention. and if Obama...  annie1   Dec-22-07 04:57 PM   #3 
  - "Obama's plans are so close to hils"  Dawgs   Dec-22-07 04:59 PM   #5 
     - yet another reason to vote edwards. :D.  annie1   Dec-22-07 05:00 PM   #8 
        - ;-)  Fried Bread   Dec-25-07 06:29 PM   #60 
  - Edwards would have to win big over Obama, which will probably not happen.  Dawgs   Dec-22-07 04:57 PM   #4 
  - Hillary coming in a distant 3rd may shake it up, too.  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:01 PM   #11 
  - An Edwards win is going to make Edwards President  surfermaw   Dec-22-07 05:00 PM   #6 
  - Who ever wins in Iowa will gain momentum  comradebillyboy   Dec-22-07 05:00 PM   #7 
  - Let me see here, Edwards wins, gets face plastered all over media for a week straight....  ShaneGR   Dec-22-07 05:01 PM   #9 
  - Is that enough to help his poor poll numbers there?  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:09 PM   #18 
     - Did it help Kerry who was polling at single digits in NH?  ShaneGR   Dec-22-07 05:24 PM   #25 
        - Kerry benefitted from being a neighboring senator as well.  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:28 PM   #27 
  - Sen. Clinton has the Iowa lead in some polls, although not all polls, and  Old Crusoe   Dec-22-07 05:01 PM   #10 
  - Excellent post.  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:05 PM   #15 
  - Even if Edwards wins Iowa, it's still possible Obama will win NH given the strong independent vote.  calteacherguy   Dec-22-07 05:12 PM   #19 
  - Agreed (assuming he places ahead of Hillary in Iowa).  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:13 PM   #21 
     - Iowans will turn out in some percentage or other, and hold in their hands  Old Crusoe   Dec-22-07 05:23 PM   #24 
  - I'm going to have to see the win by Obama in S.C to believe  surfermaw   Dec-22-07 05:29 PM   #28 
     - You may have a close read there on some voters in SC, but the nomination  Old Crusoe   Dec-22-07 05:38 PM   #31 
     - that's some very convoluted reasoning regarding SC  JackORoses   Dec-25-07 09:25 PM   #61 
  - As long as Obama beats Hillary, Edwards' position is irrelevant.  jenmito   Dec-22-07 05:02 PM   #12 
  - Probably right.  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:06 PM   #16 
  - I think the opposite is true. Edwards has a better chance than Obama of winning  robinlynne   Dec-22-07 05:03 PM   #13 
  - polls a year out don't mean anything much even if they favor your  cali   Dec-22-07 05:13 PM   #20 
     - No it's not the money  Andy823   Dec-22-07 06:48 PM   #47 
        - Then why did your candidate choose NOT to take public funding until he  jenmito   Dec-22-07 07:33 PM   #49 
  - Edwards is only competitive in Iowa...  elizm   Dec-22-07 05:04 PM   #14 
  - my thoughts exactly  ccpup   Dec-22-07 05:14 PM   #23 
     - Spot on IMO  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:30 PM   #29 
     - Your theory leaves out a very important factor...  jenmito   Dec-22-07 07:38 PM   #50 
     - Agreed, although it becomes a game of margins.  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 07:53 PM   #51 
     - I agree too  creeksneakers2   Dec-23-07 01:23 AM   #54 
  - An Edwards win does Not mean a Hillary nomination. For one thing the Party  saracat   Dec-22-07 05:08 PM   #17 
  - Trying desperately to get more Obama votes?  aquart   Dec-22-07 05:13 PM   #22 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-22-07 05:28 PM   #26 
  - The arithmetic is not aligned toward it, but one scenario for Iowa might  Old Crusoe   Dec-22-07 05:34 PM   #30 
  - That is about the most absurd reasoning anyone could ever come up  mtnsnake   Dec-22-07 05:43 PM   # 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Dec-22-07 05:48 PM   #34 
     - Excuse me?  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 05:51 PM   #35 
     - .  Kurt_and_Hunter   Dec-22-07 05:57 PM   #37 
     - You nailed it  mtnsnake   Dec-22-07 05:52 PM   #36 
  - self delete, dupe  mtnsnake   Dec-22-07 05:43 PM   #32 
  - By this logic  PATRICK   Dec-22-07 05:44 PM   #33 
  - Convince Me An Obama Victory in Iowa means anything besides a Hillary nomination...  iamjoy   Dec-22-07 06:12 PM   #38 
  - Well Obama is at least competitive in NH and SC. nm  TeamJordan23   Dec-22-07 08:21 PM   #53 
  - Okay I'm confused....  Sarah Ibarruri   Dec-22-07 06:16 PM   #39 
  - The assumption is that Obama is in better shape to take her on nationally  wlucinda   Dec-22-07 06:28 PM   #42 
     - Wow I had no idea Obama was in better shape to take her on nationally....  Sarah Ibarruri   Dec-22-07 07:31 PM   #48 
        - Obama polls much better than JE and has lots of money. I have no doubt  wlucinda   Dec-22-07 08:11 PM   #52 
        - The latest national poll has it  creeksneakers2   Dec-23-07 01:32 AM   #55 
           - How much time is left?  Sarah Ibarruri   Dec-23-07 09:07 AM   #56 
  - It may be more the other way around.  balantz   Dec-22-07 06:24 PM   #40 
  - just a week away  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 06:27 PM   #41 
  - Edwards has already been on the national ticket  OzarkDem   Dec-22-07 06:29 PM   #43 
  - If Edwards wins in Iowa he gains momentum  Armstead   Dec-22-07 06:32 PM   #44 
  - An Edwards win in Iowa is an Edwards win. Good grief.  Inspired   Dec-22-07 06:33 PM   #45 
  - Let's not analyze it or anything.  Fried Bread   Dec-22-07 06:40 PM   #46 
  - The best Iowa scenario for those who dislike Hillary is for Hillary to finish third or worse. The  Stop Cornyn   Dec-23-07 09:14 AM   #57 
  - I think I've come to this agreement.  Fried Bread   Dec-24-07 12:35 AM   #59 
  - Edwards has a lot of volunteers. Thought I would point that out.  mmonk   Dec-23-07 10:59 AM   #58 
  - What place was Kerry running in New Hampshire pre-Iowa caucus?  TeamJordan23   Dec-25-07 09:28 PM   #62 
     - That's right.  Fried Bread   Dec-25-07 10:23 PM   #63 
 

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