Reply #36: In all fairness, I think it is appropriate to see Zogby's methodology....

[earthlover]

In all fairness, I think it is appropriate to see Zogby's methodology....


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1064

...."As the election drew near, Pollster Zogby was quoted widely saying that he believed the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives would pick up between 25 and 30 seats, and that Democrats would almost certainly pick up three or four seats in the Senate, and perhaps get as high as six. As in earlier elections, Zogby’s estimates turned out to be right on the mark.


Another bright spot for Zogby came from its online polling division, Zogby Interactive, which correctly identified the winners in 18 of 19 Senate races. And the only race that Zogby did not pick correctly – the McCaskill/Talent race in Missouri – was still well within the margin of error. Zogby Interactive had Talent winning re–election by a single percentage point, instead of losing by 2%.


This separate polling methodology, under research and development at Zogby since 1998, showed particular value in mapping close contests – it correctly identified the winners in four of the five races that were won by single digits (the McCaskill race being the exception). Taking into consideration the last–minute twists and turns that took place in that race after the Zogby Interactive poll left the field, its result was remarkably precise...."

I think it is a cheap shot to dismiss this poll as if it were the type of "internet poll" we see on CNN, etc where people can vote multiple times. The methodology is way different, and apparently it has had a good track record so far.

Zogby is a respected pollster. I think it is deplorable how people have jumped to the conclusion that this was a "bogus poll". I suspect that is because some don't like the outcome.

So, go ahead and flame me. But at least read the methodology you are talking about....

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By the way, a new Strategic Vision poll shows Hillary and Obama tied at 29%. The previous Strategic Vision poll had Hillary 29 and Obama 27.

I suppose the Hillary folk who just recently touted the Strategic Vision poll as showing they were ahead will now whine that Strategic Vision is a Republican poll (which it is).

So we will have the spectacle of them complaining that Strategic Vision is Rep and Zogby is Dem in the same breath!

One point should not be ignored. In both the Strategic Vision and Zogby polls, Hillary's lead has slipped. And the CBS poll has Obama now ahead.

When the same poll shows a shift, and others show the same shift, there is reason to believe a shift is happening.

But....now....it's your turn....go back to killing the messenger and attack the polls you don't like.