Reply #16: With loss of two of the 3, Democrats fail to retake the Senate,

[ProgressiveEconomist]

even if NJ re-elects Menendez.

The most definitive nose-counting site, http://www.cqpolitics.com/06map.html , still lists VA as "Leans R", so one premise of your poll is debatable.

A better question than the one you asked would be, which of these three states is the LEAST likely Democratic pickup, because we can afford only one loss out of the three.

The current R majority is 55, so we need a net gain of 6 for Senate control.

The CQ site lists four currently R states as "leaning Democratic:" PA, OH, MT, and RI. MO and TN are counted as "No Clear Favorite", as is NJ.

If we sweep the R-held "Leaning Democratic" 4, hold NJ, and pick up MO, we're still one short.

That means either VA or TN is a MUST!

Even though CQ Politics has VA in the "Leaning R" column, I'd say a VA victory is more likely than a Ford win in TN. "Social desirability response bias" in a balck-white matchup means Ford needs at least a 5 to 10-point advantage in pre-election polls to be sure of winning by the slimmest of actual Election-Day margins.