Why OBAMA May Run: Timing

[liberalpragmatist]

I know a lot of people are a little bit surprised that Obama is seriously considering running for President in '08, a mere 4 years after he was first elected to the Senate.

A look at the presidential election cycle in the coming decades, however, makes it clear why Obama is considering a run.

Simply put, 2008 may well be his best chance at running for President. If he doesn't run now, he may not be able to run in the future, and certainly not from the position of near-universal popularity that he currently enjoys.

2008 will be an open race featuring a Democrat and a Republican running to succeed a two-term Republican. Historically, open-seat races following two terms of one party lean are narrow and lean towards the opposition. 1960, which followed 8 years of Republican rule, led to a narrow Democratic victory. 1968 followed eight years of Democratic rule and was a narrow Republican victory. 1976 followed eight years of Republican rule and was a narrow Democratic victory. And 2000 followed eight years of Democratic rule and resulted in a narrow (highly questionable) Republican "victory." 1988 was an exception, due to Michael Dukakis' exceptionally poor campaign.

In short, in 2008, the historical trends indicate that a close race should favor the Democrats.

After that, the picture becomes muddier. 2012 would seem to be a Democratic victory no matter what. We'd be in only the 4th year of Democratic rule (which typically favors retention) or in the 12th year of Republican rule (which also likely favors the opposition). However, running against an incumbent is always difficult. And if the incumbent is a Democrat, then Obama is NOT going to challenge them (barring something remarkable).

That means that he may have to wait until 2016, at which point he could well be running against either an incumbent Vice President for the presidential nomination (a daunting task) or running against an incumbent Republican president (again a daunting task). He may then not get another chance until 2020, and while he's young enough to remain a viable candidate by then, he'll no longer be a fresh face.

In presidential politics, you have to strike when the iron is hot. If Obama were to run in 2016 or later, he'd have been in the Senate for years and would likely be eclipsed by younger up-and-coming stars from various governorships or Senate seats.

His best shots are 2008 and 2012 and between them, 2012 offers too many unknowns to commit to it right now.