Reply #13: No, Lampley's argument was one of the most ignorant in history

[Awsi Dooger]

He claimed he checked Las Vegas betting lines on the afternoon of the 2004 election. There are no political betting odds in Nevada. You can only wager on sporting events decided on the field of play. There isn't even wagering on sporting elections like MVP awards or the Heisman Trophy.

The Imperial Palace got in trouble in 1992 when it put up a gag line on the Clinton/Bush 41 race. There was no betting on it but they had it up for a few days and it got some publicity. The gaming control board found out and several members marched in to confront the sportsbook manager. He got the hint, as described to me a few days later when he was still shaking. They threatened the license of the sportsbook.

Frankly, Lampley made up that story. Or severely embellished and misled using a small bit of correct information. It wasn't offshore betting sites who had Kerry a 2/1 favorite. Those sites closed the election betting as soon as the polls opened and long before the early exit polls came out. I've wagered on politics since '96 and I checked all the major offshore sites on election eve and election morning. They were all closed and that's typical. They are very conservative in shutting down the betting on unique events like that where they can be burned significantly thru early info.

The only kernel of truth in Lampley's article was the odds on the wagering site Tradesports.com went to 2/1 in Kerry's favor at about 5 PM Eastern time on election day. Big deal. I was part of that. Tradesports is a man-to-man site so it stays open after the event has begun. You can wager on baseball games tonight even when they are in the 7th or 8th inning.

My friend Paul and I wagered big on Kerry on Tradesports after I checked DU briefly while on break from GOTV and saw the early exit poll hysteria. I asked Paul to check Tradesports and we bought as many Kerry shares as we could, mostly in the mid to high 50s and some in the low 60s. It eventually reached maybe 67, which would indeed be 2/1.

But to demonstrate how flimsy that is, 2/1 is basically the equivalent of a 4 point favorite in a football game. How does that qualify as a lock? There were plenty of sharp people on Tradesports on election day 2004 who were buying the Bush shares at underdog prices because they realized early exit polls were not necesarily reliable. Bush was never the underdog all year on Tradesports or the Iowa Futures Market or any other betting site. Even when Kerry led the polls, Bush was always the favorite.

For reference purposes, on primary day two weeks ago Lamont was 7/1 favorite before we even got the first early results. Once he had the lead, Tradesports odds soared and Lamont traded as high as 99, the maximum. That is a lock. Kerry was nothing but a small favorite for an hour or two due to overreaction to the early exit polls.