Reply #17: I agree with a lot of what you say, but not all of it

[FatDave]

Your first point about giving up a Senate seat to a democrat is very perceptive. It had never even occured to me.

I think McCain's biggest problem is his recent pandering to W. You mentioned it of course, but I think that's the bigger issue. He'd do much better by being his usual self and getting the support of independents and some moderate dems. Remember "Reagan Democrats"? McCain could have all of them and probably then some. But not now. As John Stewart said, "has the Straight Talk Express been rerouted to Bullshitville?" Now is the time to be distancing yourself from W, not tossing his salad.

But I think you understated his support from the republican base. If you consider what went down in the Tennesee straw poll, McCain actually fared pretty well there. If you count the GWB votes as McCain votes (which they surely were, as W can't run for a third term) that actually gave McCain a fairly strong second place behind only Frist, who of course was on his home turf.

I'm not sure Hillary will even run, and if she does I don't think she'll get the nomination. Like you say, support from the base is very important, and she has lost a lot of support for her hawkishness on Iraq. Others like Hillary just fine, but don't think she would be able to win the presidency and will therefore try to support a stringer candidate. Feingold, on the other hand, is a fucking hero among democrats. Not the ones in congress, but the ones in the voting booths. My money's on him for the dem nomination.

For the republican nomination, I'd give it about 50/50 for McCain or Allen. Maybe McCain will give Allen the VP spot to pick up the fundies. If Jeb jumps in, all bets are off. I think we'd hand Jeb his ass though.

But hey, this is all just conjecture.