Reply #15: Here's two things:

[SteppingRazor]

1) Racism. Let's face it, it's harder to elect a black man than a white man

2) The Ford family name. Ever since the indictment of Ford's uncle, the Ford name, a long-standing one in Tennessean political circles, has become synonymous with greed and corruption.

Ford has to step out from both of those shadows to get eleccted. But if, as the OP suggests, Ford will be going against Van Hilleary, I think he'll win. Hilleary is a freaking nutcase, and most voters know it. If Corker or Bryant wins, he may have a more difficult time.